snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Figures. Just has the other models(minus GFS) move south, the Euro heads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Figures. Just has the other models(minus GFS) move south, the Euro heads north. I don't think anything except the GGEM moved south and I wouldn't live and die by the GGEM on any system. Especially one that comes out of the desert southwest which it notoriously gets wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I don't think anything except the GGEM moved south and I wouldn't live and die by the GGEM on any system. Especially one that comes out of the desert southwest which it notoriously gets wrong. PGFS did come south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 PGFS did come south too. Actually it didn't, it did however eject much slower than the previous several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's one big sexy trowal on the 0z euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow. Speaking of the pGFS, I heard that its scores are lower than the current OP GFS at 500mb... Is this true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow. The 12z GFS is pretty far north but it did adjust south compared to 6z and has a much more significant front end thump for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Speaking of the pGFS, I heard that its scores are lower than the current OP GFS at 500mb... Is this true? I haven't looked, but I believe it. It has been bad. But I think in this case we can glean something from it, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I gotta agree with what Stebo said earlier. GFS's sfc low track seems too far north given where the H5 shortwave is positioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 I gotta agree with what Stebo said earlier. GFS's sfc low track seems too far north given where the H5 shortwave is positioned. Crappy physics FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I gotta agree with what Stebo said earlier. GFS's sfc low track seems too far north given where the H5 shortwave is positioned. Between 159 and 165 it seems to be doing a pretty bad job with the surface low placement. Should be corrected to more of an ORD-DTW-KBUF type track IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Para well south. H5 track from SE MO to SE OH into C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Para well south. H5 track from SE MO to SE OH into C PA. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ne_29.png I noticed that, a huge difference from the GFS. Can someone help me identify why such a large spread? Greater SE ridge influence or quicker ingestion of the ull on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z GEM looks to be coming in more amped as wave spacing is greater and the confluence zone is further NE over the maritimes. Note the difference in the areal extent of the WSW flow, highlighted in red. 0z GEM 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I noticed that, a huge difference from the GFS. Can someone help me identify why such a large spread? Greater SE ridge influence or quicker ingestion of the ull on the GFS? Besides the OP GFS ejecting the desert SW shortwave much faster, it's also diving the northern stream wave further SW, which allows for a quicker phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 GEM actually looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I gotta agree with what Stebo said earlier. GFS's sfc low track seems too far north given where the H5 shortwave is positioned. Crappy physics FTL. Between 159 and 165 it seems to be doing a pretty bad job with the surface low placement. Should be corrected to more of an ORD-DTW-KBUF type track IMO. I could understand what you guys are saying if this were an open wave within a long wave trough. But with this particular shortwave already being closed off as it exits the desert SW, wouldn't a low track close to the 500mb center make sense (in other words, a vertically stacked low)? These surface lows tend to normally be pulled back to the center of the ULL like a magnet as the shortwaves move eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 GEM actually looks decent Yes, yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I could understand what you guys are saying if this were an open wave within a long wave trough. But with this particular shortwave already being closed off as it exits the desert SW, wouldn't a low track close to the 500mb center make sense (in other words, a vertically stacked low)? These surface lows tend to normally be pulled back to the center of the ULL like a magnet as the shortwaves move eastward. Close to the center yes, but not north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro might be going back to a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro might be going back to a more southern track. Agree, looks to be coming in much slower with the ejection as well. EDIT: 1010mb low across C Ky at 168. Positive tilt so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro might be going back to a more southern track.This is just a testament to the fact that the models have no clue what will happen and won't have a clue until we get better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Very little cold air on this run but it might be just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Euro is leaving energy behind and cutting it off into Mexico by 168, leading to the trough being positively tilted longer, I don't buy that sort of outcome for one minute. It's just the Euro being the Euro with SW shortwaves/cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Euro is leaving energy behind and cutting it off into Mexico by 168, leading to the trough being positively tilted longer, I don't buy that sort of outcome for one minute. It's just the Euro being the Euro with SW shortwaves/cutoffs. Might not happen, but to me that is the most likely way something would torpedo this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Might not happen, but to me that is the most likely way something would torpedo this setup. If you loop the Euro's vorticity maps, the vorticity pops up out of no where that eventually leads to the 2nd cutoff. I am not going to buy the phantom vorticity leading to the threat being nuked. I would be shocked if it shows this on tonight's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm still liking a STL-IND-TOL-YYZ track as depicted on yesterday's 12z GGEM. It is a compromise/blend of the other op models. Even if that ends up being the case, speed and thermo questions abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 both the euro and the ggem send the swath of snow thru Ohio. We have had about 100" of wxbell snow to date this winter, so I am dubious. However it has been rare for both the ggem and euro to show it at the same time. Let's see if it holds....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Euro is leaving energy behind and cutting it off into Mexico by 168, leading to the trough being positively tilted longer, I don't buy that sort of outcome for one minute. It's just the Euro being the Euro with SW shortwaves/cutoffs. Yup. I think it's a throw away Euro run. I've seen this trick before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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