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January Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

It's not a great big storm pattern. It's a timing pattern. The euro last night dug the northern stream right down the heart of the country and even with a 50/50 feature, ridging got pumped up in the east. It was too amped up for us to have a chance. It's one of those setups where relatively small changes in strength and placement of the important features cause large changes in sensible wx. 

Bob--do you foresee evidence that the ever elusive "big storm pattern" can come to fruition this winter...at all?  Is it the non -NAO that kills us?  Are we just destined to spin our wheels in the "timing pattern" until spring? I know we can all score no matter what, but it would easier if I didn't have to pray so much.   ;)

 

Well I see HM just answered that.  Back to praying.  

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HM

HM

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I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb.

I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived.

The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical.

Thanks Bob. I thought we would get a thaw but I didn't think it would be this brief! The Jan 20-25 period I wasn't sure on but I knew the normal factors I look at were suggesting another potential dip in the NAO/AO then. These same factors also suggested it back in late Dec and it ended up being just a small dip. This upcoming round has a better strat situation and better wave lengths for a more appreciable NAO dip.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Bob--do you foresee evidence that the ever elusive "big storm pattern" can come to fruition this winter...at all?  Is it the non -NAO that kills us?  Are we just destined to spin our wheels in the "timing pattern" until spring? I know we can all score no matter what, but it would easier if I didn't have to pray so much.   ;)

 

Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce?

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HM

HM

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Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce?

I've learned the hard way over the years that there are certain winters where you can get cute and not get cute. This is not the type of winter where I'll try to be all bad ass and call for a storm a month out (unless of course I see a bigger picture change). This is the kind of winter where the larger players DO work out but the details don't do what typically happens within that frame. Many of the best analog years had several near-misses, close-calls etc. I'm not trying to be a downer today; we've seen a lot worse! In fact, I'm pretty sure we'll all get some snow before the month is over. And you have to be a fool to not at least acknowledge the potential ahead! But, I'm just trying to keep it real here.

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packbacker

packbacker

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The one theme that this winter has that showed up on the higher solar analogs is a high-freq flow. The issue becomes getting proper amplification/interaction. This is why many of the better analogs seemed to have good patterns, per monthly numbers/composites, but lacked on the snow (e.g. 58/59, 03/04, 79/80 for some of you). Already, the modeling has become littered with waves next week and has dismantled the NAO rex attempt to more of a thumb/omega block. There's been also a nice similarity with 04/05, 87/88 too.

 

 

Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce?

Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

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This is last night's euro for the same period I posted the gfs. It digs for Texas oil with the northern stream and kills off any confluence we have from the 50/50. Somewhere between this euro look and today's gfs is a big storm for us. Euro likes amping things up too much at this range so it's hardly a surprise. But doesn't mean it's wrong.

 

attachicon.gifeuroh5vort.JPG

I'd rather see that northern stream dig to the florida keys if we are going with a triple phase.  I think it's pretty clearly the euro is overdoing the phase, and with the -AO a miss to the south is probably more likely than a cutter.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Thanks Bob. I thought we would get a thaw but I didn't think it would be this brief! The Jan 20-25 period I wasn't sure on but I knew the normal factors I look at were suggesting another potential dip in the NAO/AO then. These same factors also suggested it back in late Dec and it ended up being just a small dip. This upcoming round has a better strat situation and better wave lengths for a more appreciable NAO dip.

 

I know this is a very tough question to answer...but...do you think we are in the process of building more stable higher heights where it counts or will we be stuck relying on the -epo to deliver chances? Seems like the -epo ridge is the only stable feature when I run the various ensemble loops. Seems the -nao look may end up being pretty transient.

 

ETA: you answered my question above.

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Scraff

Scraff

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Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce?

I hear both you and HM loud and clear.  We just need to score something decent soon.  That damn sun angle excuse is right around the corner...well at least a few blocks away...but still.  

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HM

HM

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Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter.

Well, you folks down there in the SE have a different story. I'm already on the record, with Eric W., on Twitter suggestint a snowy winter was more probable for you guys.

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HM

HM

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I know this is a very tough question to answer...but...do you think we are in the process of building more stable higher heights where it counts or will we be stuck relying on the -epo to deliver chances? Seems like the -epo ridge is the only stable feature when I run the various ensemble loops. Seems the -nao look may end up being pretty transient.

 

ETA: you answered my question above.

The stratosphere trends yesterday were great. I want to see if the EPS continue with the 00z idea (not as great) or revert back to yesterday's 12z. They set up a classic baroclinic structure, displaced to Siberia with a high tropopause over Greenland/Canada. It's a great look for the NAO potential and possible further PV weakening. However, last night they sort of got that barotropic look back, despite the displacement! Meh...

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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The stratosphere trends yesterday were great. I want to see if the EPS continue with the 00z idea (not as great) or revert back to yesterday's 12z. They set up a classic baroclinic structure, displaced to Siberia with a high tropopause over Greenland/Canada. It's a great look for the NAO potential and possible further PV weakening. However, last night they sort of got that barotropic look back, despite the displacement! Meh...

 

yea, I saw that too. I'm getting pretty good as basic interpretation. Pretty concentric circles are not nearly as sexy as elongated ovals or multiple circles...haha

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

 

 

Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter.

Those winters did produce albeit not to the extent many would've liked. From where we are right now I think any reasonable snow lover would take what those winters offered.

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HM

HM

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The pattern will transition to retrogression next week. The retrograding will mean, ultimately, the PNA will become more EPO/WPO and the trough axis may move back west as we move into early Feb. I don't expect a Dec-like recovery in the PV and a super +AO. In fact, I think it may average negative...gulp.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I'm more interested in Wednesday for now. We could easily get a good vort pass and weak slp south of us. GFS is close to this and it's way out in time. Those NS pieces of energy are tricky and show their true colors inside of 4 days.

Enough on the ensembles to keep your interest.

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Ian

Ian

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Yea, closed lp contour in nc at 156 that blossoms offshore. Good to see it squeak by underneath. We haven't had a developer for a while.

Def some room to go upward as long as it doesn't end up too south. Vort suggests it wouldn't as of now.

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