tnweathernut Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks terrible at h5. But then it's supposedly smarter twin has a closed h5 low over AZ at 84 hours. Not sure where it goes from there but the differences @ just 3.5 day leads are huge. Yes, laughable. Question is, does the regular GFS even know when a southern stream storm exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Unless you are referring to a different storm other than 2/5-6/10 as Snowmageddon, this is simply a false memory. I remember in 1996 he was the last to really start to talk about the chance of a big snow, but when he came on at 11pm Friday night and said this is going to be crippling I knew it was a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 1012 L in S TX at 96 on the para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well at least the Ohio low is gone on the reg GFS, now to flat and south. That's more in line with its bias in this situation at 5 days out. Not worried until 72 hours. The real red flag would be if the UKMET was flat. That might indicate euro is off its rocker this time. Would also be nice if the GGEM showed a storm on an odd run or two in the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks like hot garbage. Has some northern stream s/w come through Sunday with some light precip (probably snow given 850s). Southern stream vort is just totally washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 1012 L in S TX at 96 on the para GFS Where do you get the para so fast? I am using wxbell and only out to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks terrible at h5. But then it's supposedly smarter twin has a closed h5 low over AZ at 84 hours. Not sure where it goes from there but the differences @ just 3.5 day leads are huge. I don't envy the NWS. How does one even begin to blend the following guidance: a cloudy sprinkle storm scooting to our south Saturday morning (GFS) and a slowly evolving Gulf of Mexico Miller A liquid explosion moving in Saturday night (ECMWF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks like hot garbage. Has some northern stream s/w come through Sunday with some light precip (probably snow given 850s). Southern stream vort is just totally washed out. I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS has two serperate waves. Seems like an odd development to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Where do you get the para so fast? I am using wxbell and only out to 78. Maybe here. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121512/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para has a 1012 just east of the MS river @ 120. Looking euro'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Maybe here. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121512/ Cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS is exactly where I would want it track wise right now. I would like to see a stronger vort but it also has issues with STJ systems so not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 What a difference between the 6Z and 12Z GFSP at 126/132 Panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM looks like it might be game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is the 3rd coastal system this winter season already where the euro has been a rock run after run with the same general solution while the other models flail around aimlessly. Now eventually the euro will be wrong so its dangerous to use past performance to predict future results, as the Eagles proved last night, but it is definitely a trend this year that the euro is locked into these east coast systems in this pattern while the other models are struggling. UKMET has been very similar to the euro also so I should put those two together in fairness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Xbox takes a great track at the surface. 500mb is still a little wonky. Much closer to the Euro. Hopefully this is an encouraging sign for when we switch to the Xbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Canada cipher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFSP is blah. I do not know about that... at least it brings the surface low up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFSP is meh. It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFSP is meh. wut? It's the first run with a phased solution and good track. Excellent trend imo and far from meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Biggest change on the para is the strength and position of the HP up north. The progression is also slower than the 6Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM has snow (I think?) in DC at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 wut? It's the first run with a phased solution and good track. Excellent trend imo and far from meh. Don't you know? If it doesn't show 20 inches of snow, it's meh. Watching it play catch up and noting the changes? That's too hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 wut? It's the first run with a phased solution and good track. Excellent trend imo and far from meh. Looked liked it slid a little, but I'm on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 144 997 L just south of benchmark on 12z GGEM... it came aboard some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM has snow (I think?) in DC at 126 Track looks good. Another on board with the king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Don't you know? If it doesn't show 20 inches of snow, it's meh. Watching it play catch up and noting the changes? That's too hard... Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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