December Forecast Discussion

[IsentropicLift]

The radar over the mid-atlantic is looking rather healthy. Would not be surprised if some locations picked up close to an inch overnight, if not more.

[SnoSki14]

Next week looks really active and cold on the GFS. GFS cooks up something for midweek.

If you like rain then yes it'll be active. Nothing that would scream snow on the gfs anymore as the storms cut and the cold continues to get delayed.

[Blizz]

Euro snow map.

 

[poleshiftnow]

0z euro @ 168 says lets get this party started!

Trend is our friend

[Doorman]

Run the loop

Get the scoop 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-US-250-spd-0-1

just too dang fast and furious, for white on the ground 

 

bad santa..... bad   

 

gfs ens 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122400/gfs-ens_uv250_eus.html

 

wpc

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg

[MJO812]

0z euro @ 168 says lets get this party started!

Trend is our friend

Really nice run

[mahk_webstah]

If you like rain then yes it'll be active. Nothing that would scream snow on the gfs anymore as the storms cut and the cold continues to get delayed.

?

[PB GFI]

The press of the cold for the 28th storm as the trough axis swings backs east is impressive , some could snow in the 20`s at minus 5 as per the 0z euro after 2 - 60 degree days ( post SB set up)  .

However when I see multiple SWs it tells me the models are having a hard time spinning up1 big one and  it`s possible it shears one out only to will catch onto one as we get closer.

So a head fake here and there is possible .

Lastly that SE ridge is real and if the baroclinic zone can set up in the Delmarva then everyone N of 195 does well . The cold that follows will make you know winter never died actually on Dec 28th ( like many of us said ) it only just begins .

 

The Vortex will be stuck around Hudson bay through the 8th so as a whole the CONUS will be below normal throughout this period .

Any warmth would be confined to SE as that ridge is going to be a friend of ours for a storm or 2 .

A nice looking confluence pattern is setting up . Now who does great ? N of 195 ? N  of the Merritt pkwy ?  Hard to tell as those details will get worked out as we will see where the actual Baroclinic zone sets up.

But the pattern changes on the 28th and then we see what we can come away with.

[bluewave]

With the EPO going negative, the OP Euro may be strong with the the low.

The more progressive ensemble mean may be the way to go with the trend

for storms to verify weaker past day 5.

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

If you like rain then yes it'll be active. Nothing that would scream snow on the gfs anymore as the storms cut and the cold continues to get delayed.

Brutal post. The GFS, if anything, shows a suppressed or sheared out pattern.

[PB GFI]

With the EPO going negative, the OP Euro may be strong with the the low.

The more progressive ensemble mean may be the way to go with the trend

for storms to verify weaker past day 5.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_us_7.png

My issue is go back over the last 12 euro ensembles I have not seen 2 runs in a row in terms of consistency on either the Atlantic or Pacific with it`s Height rises or  it`s Negatives .

 

Yesterday at 12z  day 13- 15 there was a Neg in the GOA at 0z the NEG EPO  is back and the height rises extend through the pole into Europe .

It`s struggling so I can`t bite yet .

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

With the EPO going negative, the OP Euro may be strong with the the low.

The more progressive ensemble mean may be the way to go with the trend

for storms to verify weaker past day 5.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_us_7.png

The ensembles have been horrendous and just about completely unusable all winter long. In times like these, it's probably best not to go with any model, but to look at the pattern and seasonal trend. Suffice it to say, neither has been in our favor all winter long.

[bluewave]

My issue is go back over the last 12 euro ensembles I have not seen 2 runs in a row in terms of consistency on either the Atlantic or Pacific with it`s Height rises or  it`s Negatives .

 

Yesterday at 12z  day 13- 15 there was a Neg in the GOA at 0z the NEG EPO  is back and the height rises extend through the pole into Europe .

It`s struggling so I can`t bite yet .

 

It's just hard to buy into these really wrapped up OP Euro solutions after 120 that get weaker the closer in we get.

The only thing we can probably be sure of is that the 144-168 OP Euro solution won't work out the way 0Z is showing.

[SnoSki14]

Brutal post. The GFS, if anything, shows a suppressed or sheared out pattern.

Best bet continues to be a storm on the 30th but how that evolves is uncertain. Either it gets sheared out like the system before it or the SE ridge verifies too strong and the system goes too far north giving us mostly rain. Something in between is the best choice and in this pattern we'll have to be lucky. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Best bet continues to be a storm on the 30th but how that evolves is uncertain. Either it gets sheared out like the system before it or the SE ridge verifies too strong and the system goes too far north giving us mostly rain. Something in between is the best choice and in this pattern we'll have to be lucky.

Yes we would need to get lucky in THIS pattern but by the 30th we are into an entirely different pattern with the PV nearby on our side of the hemisphere for a change among other decent teleconnections.

And besides, this potential occurs during the period I have been barking about for nearly 10 days already. It has to snow right? ;-)

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Best bet continues to be a storm on the 30th but how that evolves is uncertain. Either it gets sheared out like the system before it or the SE ridge verifies too strong and the system goes too far north giving us mostly rain. Something in between is the best choice and in this pattern we'll have to be lucky. 

Everything you said here is accurate, but it is inconsistent with every other one of your posts overnight. This setup is infinitely better than the setup for the other marginal events this season. We have the PV nosing down, flooding us with colder air as this system approaches. You see the difference? 

[PB GFI]

My head is spinning reading this stuff . Yesterday guys were arguing there is no mechanism to keep the cold on the coastal plain so this has to cut and we have to rain .

 

Today it`s I think this is suppressed as this gets sheared out .

 

WHICH IS IT ?  You can`t argue both sides .  You can`t look at an ensemble mean 5 days out as some members that way off the board skew the mean . 

 

I think there is a pressing cold front with arctic air and as the boundary layer swings through there`s enough of a SE ridge to press against it and as LP develops on  it moves NE  because that ridge after giving you 2 days of 60 does not just go poof .

Now the question is does that low level cold air make it to the coastal plain . This is what the models have been trying to solve for the last 3 days .

 

If it gets sheared there about 3 SWs behind the NEG EPO  can save you with . Winter begins DEC 28th .

[SnowGoose69]

My head is spinning reading this stuff . Yesterday guys were arguing there is no mechanism to keep the cold on the coastal plain so this has to cut and we have to rain .

 

Today it`s I think this is suppressed as this gets sheared out .

 

WHICH IS IT ?  You can`t argue both sides .  You can`t look at an ensemble mean 5 days out as some members that way off the board skew the mean . 

 

I think there is a pressing cold front with arctic air and as the boundary layer swings through there`s enough of a SE ridge to press against it and as LP develops on  it moves NE  because that ridge after giving you 2 days of 60 does not just go poof .

Now the question is does that low level cold air make it to the coastal plain . This is what the models have been trying to solve for the last 3 days .

 

If it gets sheared there about 3 SWs behind the NEG EPO  can save you with . Winter begins DEC 28th .

The only argument you can really make for a stronger system is the ridge out west looks to be stable and strong this time around and resistant to Pac energy....the problem is the trof orientation in the East does not argue for amplified systems at all and that particular 500mb setup is mostly conducive to weak waves slamming their way into an arctic high or producing overrunning on the west side as they ride up the coast.

[PB GFI]

The only argument you can really make for a stronger system is the ridge out west looks to be stable and strong this time around and resistant to Pac energy....the problem is the trof orientation in the East does not argue for amplified systems at all and that particular 500mb setup is mostly conducive to weak waves slamming their way into an arctic high or producing overrunning on the west side as they ride up the coast.

This .

 

 I wrote earlier when I see multiple vorts being modeled it tells me there`s no big wrapped up solution . I am ok with that however a few SWs working NE and having the backside flow be arctic in nature  could work here . The Neg EPO will shove that vortex into Canada and I am going for the seepage to the coast argument .

[ag3]

The coastal plain from NYC to Boston only averages 25"-45" of snow for a reason.

Not sure what the hell people expect.

Reading some of the meltdowns here and especially the SNE thread is hilarious.

[PB GFI]

You sir.. must be related to the Unknown Comic

 

images.jpg

 

notice... the nice hanky to wipe away some tears   

 

Euro-Ens Data

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2014122400&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=468

that blast just wont last-imho

Sometimes I wonder if you have that bag on backwards when you look at this stuff .

This is the warmest 850`s you will  find after the 28th . Yawn .

[Zelocita Weather]

So the gem and euro have a significant snowstorm on Monday....with the gfs slightly weak and surpressed, sounds good!

[Doorman]

Sometimes I wonder if you have that bag on backwards when you look at this stuff .

This is the warmest 850`s you will  find after the 28th . Yawn .

Euro Hugification is a disease----  round here   

 

Bias from the Canadians??? 

i think not

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2014122400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=410.6667

[Doorman]

So the warmest you can find me is Normal ? ( with 1st week of Jan splits )  That`s victory ?  .

 

I like you better with the bag . 

Mr.Clay

 

"Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something."

Plato

 

the king is on life support ---FWIW

 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f168_us.html

[Guest Pamela]

Its often forgotten that the GFS has a very large cold bias after about day 7 or so...invariably vastly overstating both the extent & severity of forecast arctic outbreaks...this needs to be factored into one's consciousness when interpreting its output. 

[CIK62]

Last two GFSx's are still +9 to +10degs  and  no below normal highs or lows are indicated for next 7 days.    Been told that  GFSx not the best predictor there is, but it gives an easy to track numerical figure and I am sure that the positive anomaly  will keel over if some Artic air comes within its purview.

[Zir0b]

No talk about the 12z GGEM? has a SECS/MECS for the area Day 5/6...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No talk about the 12z GGEM? has a SECS/MECS for the area Day 5/6...

Just posted that in the NE. Nice looking snow event. Not in total lala land either.

That whole run verbatim looks good if you like snow

[Guest Pamela]

Just posted that in the NE. Nice looking snow event. Not in total lala land either.

That whole run verbatim looks good if you like snow

 

Its quite a hit...printing out up to 16 inches of snow around NYC over the next 240 hours...only problem is, the single worst thing to be in is the bullseye 5 days out...especially with the notoriously erratic Canadian model. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Its quite a hit...printing out up to 16 inches of snow around NYC over the next 240 hours...only problem is, the single worst thing to be in is the bullseye 5 days out...especially with the notoriously erratic Canadian model.

My biggest takeaway is there is probably going to be some chances coming up here. This pattern is going to cause problems with the models. I'm sure it will look completely different next run, but the idea is there.

Now if we produce snow or not, who knows. This period will without a doubt be the best chance so far though