snowlover2 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Things looking better and better for my area. 3-4" looking like a safe bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyfisher7 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I will lol...pull the force NW! Its funny if we somehow miss BOTH tonight and tomorrow nights synoptic events, but still get all the lake effect this week, we could have above normal snow in Nov with no synoptic snow . Of course...lets hope thats not the case. NORTHWEST! DTX not counting it out yet... "DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENHANCED FGEN WILL SUPPORT A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP PRECIP JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE 700-500MB PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACTIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SE MI LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. THE POOR SAMPLING OF THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER N CNTL CANADA DOES LEAD TO SOME DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE DEEPENING UPPER WAVE MAY PULL THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ESTABLISH SOME GOOD FGEN FARTHER WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS HOLDING CHANCE POPS ACROSS SE MI ATTM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Haha yeah drives me nuts every year, I am however an expert at subtracting lake enhancement / lake effect from my snow totals living here in the donut hole of lake effect of the entire state lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Just picked up about 1/8th-1/4th inch. With snow showers now. 2" tomorrow looks very solid. 1". A lock. 3-4" if banding sets up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Approx 3/4" down. Beautiful dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The SREF plumes for DTW show just over 2" with Monday's system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 0z 4km NAM 48 hour total QPF maps through 0z Tuesday...from St. Louis up to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A little less concerned about that northern edge now. Would be nice to see some of the holdout models bump things up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 21z SREF mean is identical to the 15z run for LAF, down to the hundredth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 A little less concerned about that northern edge now. Would be nice to see some of the holdout models bump things up though. 0z GFS bumped us up to around 0.10" precip. So I guess that's good. 0z RGEM somewhere in the 0.10-0.20" neighborhood. Not much, but an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice 4" bullseye over me on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yup, GFS & RGEM have caved...all models now show generally 0.15-0.20" qpf over far SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 0z GFS bumped us up to around 0.10" precip. So I guess that's good. 1-2" should about do it I think, though would come in a bit above that if the NAM is right. I'd have to double check but I think there was only 1 21z SREF member that had us under 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 1-2" seems like a good call here as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 1-2" should about do it I think, though would come in a bit above that if the NAM is right. I'd have to double check but I think there was only 1 21z SREF member that had us under 1". Yep, think that's the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 1-2" seems like a good call here as well... I am liking closer to 2" especially for us on the east side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I am liking closer to 2" especially for us on the east side of town. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I am liking closer to 2" especially for us on the east side of town. Thinking a solid 2" for myself. Perhaps the first push of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Going with a general 2-4 around here. Someone may see 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Oh, ILN...This the current Watch/Warning/Advisory map and the snow totals listed in their WSW and WWAs... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...WILL DEVELOP LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CHANGE TO ALLSNOW DURING THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ANDTAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST MONDAY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE TOSNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPEROFF MONDAY MORNING. Realistically could have been handled by a broad brush advisory. The wording is almost identical, but I guess because of a slightly shorter time for snow in the warning area, they went with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 For areas south of Dayton....including Cincinnati....they have a lower criteria for Winter Storm Warning qualification. Dayton and areas north have a higher level...thus the different warnings and watches during the winter season. For the average citizen it is confusing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not a bad look for central Indiana in mid-November. As for today's 12z runs...NAM wetter than the GFS. Par for the course. 36 hour total QPF maps below. 12z NAM 36 hour total QPF 12z GFS 36 hour total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 12z RGEM more "NAM-like" with QPF for parts of IN and OH. 36 hour total below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 This is a little tempered versus some model guidance, but I think the timing of the snowfall today may initially waste some accumulation due to somewhat marginal surface temps. And the 0z Euro took a good step back in snow totals as well...sometimes a red flag of sorts. Anyways, put them all in a blender...and here's my final call for a couple of Indiana cities. FWA: 1.5-2.0" IND: 2.0-2.5" LAF: 0.5-1.0" MIE: 2.5-3.0" OKK: 1.5-2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Spitting a few flakes here right now. At least it won't be a total shutout. 15z HRRR total run QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This is a little tempered versus some model guidance, but I think the timing of the snowfall today may initially waste some accumulation due to somewhat marginal surface temps. And the 0z Euro took a good step back in snow totals as well...sometimes a red flag of sorts. Anyways, put them all in a blender...and here's my final call for a couple of Indiana cities. FWA: 1.5-2.0" IND: 2.0-2.5" LAF: 0.5-1.0" MIE: 2.5-3.0" OKK: 1.5-2.0" The 00z Euro only had like 0.05" qpf for DTW, all other models, including the latest short term ones, are holding firm between 0.10-0.20" (most around 0.15"). The Euro's days as king are LONG over. Whats more, its run to run forecast changes more than the GFS now it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 real high end -SN with large puffballs looks like mid winter with the ground cover and snow falling this is going to be a long winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 00z Euro only had like 0.05" qpf for DTW, all other models, including the latest short term ones, are holding firm between 0.10-0.20" (most around 0.15"). The Euro's days as king are LONG over. Whats more, its run to run forecast changes more than the GFS now it seems the euro still rules…it sucked for like a month last winter and then regained the crown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 real high end -SN with large puffballs looks like mid winter with the ground cover and snow falling this is going to be a long winter Penny, nickle, dime, quarter, dollar and maybe a fifty or hundred until we hit 80" again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 the euro still rules…it sucked for like a month last winter and then regained the crown I have been following the euros 10 day forecast and it changes run to run, seemingly more than it used to. And the weeklies performance has been shaky. Maybe it is overall better in the short term though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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