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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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is there any non truths though? seems about right based on latest progs

The Spine will unfortunately be wetter than models show I think.  Just like when it snows, it doesn't magically precipitate less when it rains.  If we go over model QPF on the Spine during snows, it stands to reason the same will happen when it rains.

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Ended up with almost 3 1/2" from last night.  Snowblowed the driveway and town plowed the roads.  CAD doing its usual thing, only 32.9F highest of the day.  Amazing difference in the pack from Concord NH with no snow to a solid blanket here.  Will be interesting how many hours we stay in the warm air once it gets here. May not be for too many hours so I just can't see more than 50% of grass showing.  It will be interesting.

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The Spine will unfortunately be wetter than models show I think.  Just like when it snows, it doesn't magically precipitate less when it rains.  If we go over model QPF on the Spine during snows, it stands to reason the same will happen when it rains.

Further North at Jay Peak modeling is pretty sparse with qpf, this is a bump in the road rather than this mega meltdown wash out for the Mts it appears. 

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Further North at Jay Peak modeling is pretty sparse with qpf, this is a bump in the road rather than this mega meltdown wash out for the Mts it appears. 

 

The model QPF is no different than here, and we both know model QPF on the globals isn't going to pick up the nuances.

 

Basically orographic lift doesn't stop working when its rain, and ramming these PWATs into the mountains, I'm more inclined to go on the higher end.

 

BTV WRF shows it well at Mansfield and Jay Peak...the overall larger scale aerial coverage of heavier precip up here is definitely less than points SE, but the mountains orographic processes aren't going to help with a stiff SE flow.

 

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Jay's marketing over the past, well, almost decade now seems consistently of the "Go Big" mentality.  As a patron for many years, and seeing how the place has changed (for better, and worse), it seems obvious that the marketing department spins things strongly- and management is fine with it at this point, taken with a grain of salt here. Without making too many jabs, the whole "Get Up" promoted by the resort (by whatever means, it seems) borders on irresponsible- just look at their environmental track record over time... 

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Eye on the Sky weather from the Fairbanks Museum in Saint Johnsbury ran the average temperature over the past 120 years, and found a notable increase in temperatures right around Christmas.  Maybe the fact that it always seems to rain during the holiday week isn't complete fiction. 

 

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Eye on the Sky weather from the Fairbanks Museum in Saint Johnsbury ran the average temperature over the past 120 years, and found a notable increase in temperatures right around Christmas.  Maybe the fact that it always seems to rain during the holiday week isn't complete fiction. 

 

10421530_826648684058871_884912484371877

Interesting. Perhaps you're right!

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Interesting. Perhaps you're right!

I posted last week interesting stats on average depth decrease on Christmas eve and Christmas day versus the day before and day after. He's a mean one

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Eye on the Sky weather from the Fairbanks Museum in Saint Johnsbury ran the average temperature over the past 120 years, and found a notable increase in temperatures right around Christmas.  Maybe the fact that it always seems to rain during the holiday week isn't complete fiction. 

 

10421530_826648684058871_884912484371877

I am pretty sure that the Eye on the Sky folks have found a similar bump around January 20-22.

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What a nice 2" paste job last night.

 

23DEC14H.jpg

 

 

Yeah, that was a great front end shot of snow.  We got a good dose of liquid at the house, but I think it was a bit warm around here to accumulate with much loft.  I'm not sure if the accumulation would have come in any deeper if I'd measured it earlier in the morning, but it certainly added some additional liquid equivalent to the pack.

 

We were up at Bolton today and the skiing was fantastic thanks to that new snow.  They reported 3" new, but I definitely measured areas with 4" and it was plenty dense to really take care of keeping things bottomless on all but the steepest terrain.  As they seem to say, heck of a way to run a "Grinch" storm:

 

23DEC14B.jpg

 

23DEC14E.jpg

 

I put together the north to south listing of available snowfall totals for the Vermont ski areas from this storm so far; there was a fairly homogeneous 3" reported up and down the spine of the Greens aside from a spot 4" at Sugarbush and totals dropping off to the far south with some icing.

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 4”

Middlebury: 3”

Suicide Six: 3”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 3”

Bromley: 3”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

Folks seem to have been stressing out a lot over this storm, as is typical of the warmer ones, but the skiing should actually be pretty good and soft over the next couple of days.  I guess the trick for the best experiences would be to avoid being out on the slopes during any downpours.  It's Friday that's likely to be rough when the temperatures come back down and the snow tightens up, but, there appear to be possibilities for snow coming up:

 

Thu 25th & Fri 26th: back side of this storm

 

Sun 28th: upper level trough and frontal passage

 

Tue 30th: coastal storm?

 

It doesn't look like there's much snow on the back side of this storm, and the potential beyond that seems questionable looking at the model inconsistencies, but there are at least some snow chances to finish off the month.

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I am pretty sure that the Eye on the Sky folks have found a similar bump around January 20-22.

 

Farmington, Maine, with 121 years of record, shows a distinct bump of 1.5 to 2F for the week of Jan 21-27.  Much shorter record (16 yr) at my place, but Dec. 23 and 24 have averaged about 3F milder than the week before or week after.

 

Edit:  The Grinch shows up for the 121-yr Farmington records, too.  December averages slide downward to a plateau for 16-23 (19.0 to 20.1, avg 19.7) then pop up to 21.1 for 24-25, after which temps dive to 18.8 on the 26th and continue down to the coldest day, 13.9 on Jan. 17.

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More like weeping..................lol,  If it has to happen better its a couple inches and not a foot get wiped out

I like how much damage even a thin black cord can do to the snowpack.

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I like how much damage even a thin black cord can do to the snowpack.

 

I saw that and was wondering if it was hot, Being black and absorbing heat...........ftl, Must be tough come mowing time moving it around

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I saw that and was wondering if it was hot, Being black and absorbing heat...........ftl, Must be tough come mowing time moving it around

Yeah...I need to run it underground this spring. Lazy FTL.

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The model QPF is no different than here, and we both know model QPF on the globals isn't going to pick up the nuances.

 

Basically orographic lift doesn't stop working when its rain, and ramming these PWATs into the mountains, I'm more inclined to go on the higher end.

 

BTV WRF shows it well at Mansfield and Jay Peak...the overall larger scale aerial coverage of heavier precip up here is definitely less than points SE, but the mountains orographic processes aren't going to help with a stiff SE flow.

 

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Yeah...I liked the 2-3" amounts in the mtns days ago. Looks pretty meh in the lower elevations though. I wish I had more snow OTG to salvage a sloppy white Christmas tomorrow morning. Maybe there will be enough patches to technically average 1", but it's not the same.

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Up to 34.9F highest since the snow started 2 nights ago.   About half of the 3 1/2" has melted, then we can start working on the glacier snow below.   Tomorrow will be the big melt day. Don't see any heavy rain down wind just lots of light rain. 

Friday and Saturday won't be pretty either.

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Farmington, Maine, with 121 years of record, shows a distinct bump of 1.5 to 2F for the week of Jan 21-27.  Much shorter record (16 yr) at my place, but Dec. 23 and 24 have averaged about 3F milder than the week before or week after.

 

Edit:  The Grinch shows up for the 121-yr Farmington records, too.  December averages slide downward to a plateau for 16-23 (19.0 to 20.1, avg 19.7) then pop up to 21.1 for 24-25, after which temps dive to 18.8 on the 26th and continue down to the coldest day, 13.9 on Jan. 17.

 

That's just bizarre to me that this stuff is showing up in very long term records.  I can't think of what reason there would be for the increase around Xmas.  Maybe that's just when patterns typically reload or something.

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So far I don't see any significant snowpack damage in town or at the mountain.  Still sitting at 8-9" at the stake in my yard.  Just absorbing the water so far, though we've only had like a tenth or two.  Temp is 38F, with 36F at 1,500ft and 32-33F at the summits.  Got a surprising amount of freezing rain last night above 2,500ft...more like freezing mist, but there was like 1/4-1/2" of new ice this morning up there.  That's helping preserve it too on the mountain.

 

The big melt will be tonight into tomorrow, and then for the valleys, any sun and temps near 40F on Friday/Saturday won't be pretty.

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Friday and Saturday won't be pretty either.

I think we get below freezing tomorrow night and solidify the remaining pack.   30's for the weekend will not do too much damage if we are starting from a frozen AM pack.  I'll bet $10 to my favorite charity that even my south facing fields will be more than 50% covered come the end of Sunday PM.   Will be fun to watch how right or wrong I am.  

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Unfortunately the model trends are not looking good for recovery snows around the New Year. NWS mentions suppression as well.

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I think we get below freezing tomorrow night and solidify the remaining pack.   30's for the weekend will not do too much damage if we are starting from a frozen AM pack.  I'll bet $10 to my favorite charity that even my south facing fields will be more than 50% covered come the end of Sunday PM.   Will be fun to watch how right or wrong I am.  

Fri and Sat will be 40s with sun.

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Could've been worse today.  Generally light rain or even just mist/drizzle for a while in the afternoon.  Temps were 32-37F with just soft snow.

 

Afternoon was good with some friends...even though it was damp, its Christmas Eve and the snow was fun.

 

photo_gallery_img_6199_edited_2_1.jpg

 

photo_gallery_img_6193_edited_2_1.jpg

 

 

Wet day, snow melting off the trees at the summit and base, respectively.

 

 

 

Took another good look at the severe thunderstorm damage in the Goat woods.  Skiing the Goat trail is like a tour of a natural disaster.  Dense forest flattened.

 

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