Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I had pretty good success last year with a 6 week forecast and am going to try to extend it to 8 this year. The methods I used are the same as last year so hopefully this works again. My forecast is tamer than what my results show but safe to say its very impressive if you are a fan of winter.. Experimental and for fun Week of 11/15/14 Well below normal with some snow chances during this period with LES events -3 to -6 Week of 11/22/14 Very much below normal period - 5 to -7 with a good chance at a strong Noreaster with snows to the coast Week of 11/29/14 A strong soueaster heralds in yet another cold blast -2 to -4 Week of 12/06/14 Return to much below normal cold possible coastal snowstorm around the 4th -4,-6 then a 2-3 day milder pattern Week of 12/13/14 Couple of very cold days then a thaw, temps normal Week of 12/20/14 Much warmer, Grinch week ,cutter a temporary pattern flip Week of 12/27/14 Huge snowstorm, entire country frigid -4/-7 Week of 1/4/15 much much below normal extreme cold and dry - 6 /-8 Epic LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I can't take another Grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Looks amazing. Grinch storms at becoming the norm around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 No grinch storm this year. Xmas eve clipper with a widespread 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Where's the poems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Where's the poems?MarkH Webster nailed it.red tags and red flags go together when it comes to wintry weather flags flying.... soon to be lost to low visibility and northeasterly gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 No grinch storm this year. Xmas eve clipper with a widespread 1-3". Picturesque, but travel won't be impacted too much. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Nice Ginxy. Sounds like a snowy first part of winter enroute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Go with it. Ginx has had the hot hand since the big one in 02/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 I hope to have as much success as last year, reviewing things again, that Grinch week just might yield a Christmas/eve night snow. It appears to me upper air/teleconnections features change abruptly around that time. That time period though is past week 6 so definitely not as confident. I found last year on my own, signals smooth out and get muddled near week 6. Just doing it for fun anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 You were pretty much spot on last year with a few minor deviations; look forward to following this year. Thanks for posting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 You were pretty much spot on last year with a few minor deviations; look forward to following this year. Thanks for posting it!thanks,I hope it comes close as that would be fun and to me it's all about having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I wish I could even make a guess like that... But I agree that all signs are go for an early start this year. We usually don't have that, it really seems real this year. Early starts in New England, with the right teleconnections, I would think almost feed on themselves i.e. thick snowpack during the lowest sun angle period. We have only hit -20 once since I've lived here. I suspect we hit that before the end of the 1st week of January. I'll make that prediction. I also predict 4 feet of snow will have fallen by the New Year up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 There once was a man named Ginxy, From the scrolls to the tip of his weenie. He'd forecast snow, Always with a -AO. A fetish for tides and syzygy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I hope it verifies minus the Grinch Storm. Good luck Ginxy. But my biggest curiosity is: Which sediment layers from the Pawcatuck River were used as the top analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 There once was a man named Ginxy, From the scrolls to the tip of his weenie. He'd forecast snow, Always with a -AO. A fetish for tides and syzygy. lol , rap a da rap, Scooters the rappa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 I hope it verifies minus the Grinch Storm. Good luck Ginxy. But my biggest curiosity is: Which sediment layers from the Pawcatuck River were used as the top analogs? Using the ones you brought back for me from the Maldives, huge signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 I wish I could even make a guess like that... But I agree that all signs are go for an early start this year. We usually don't have that, it really seems real this year. Early starts in New England, with the right teleconnections, I would think almost feed on themselves i.e. thick snowpack during the lowest sun angle period. We have only hit -20 once since I've lived here. I suspect we hit that before the end of the 1st week of January. I'll make that prediction. I also predict 4 feet of snow will have fallen by the New Year up here. wow 4 feet by New Years, nice. I certainly hope so from a skiers perspective. If I have 20 inches by then I will be overjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 lol I can picture Scooter with Bryce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 LOL, I don't know why...but the whole scrolls thing never gets old. Well, maybe to Steve it does...but it's all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 lol I can picture Scooter with Bryce That poor kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess why there seems to be a string of Christmas warmups and "Grinch" storms over the past few years? Is it something like the January thaw in terms of timing or just a series of coincidences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 wow 4 feet by New Years, nice. I certainly hope so from a skiers perspective. If I have 20 inches by then I will be overjoyed. If winter does indeed start mid Nov, 4 feet is great but quite possible. That is 48 inches and we average 80 or so. Our big winters range between 100 and 140, so 48 is not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 If winter does indeed start mid Nov, 4 feet is great but quite possible. That is 48 inches and we average 80 or so. Our big winters range between 100 and 140, so 48 is not unreasonable. What did you have on January 1, 2008 for snowfall so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess why there seems to be a string of Christmas warmups and "Grinch" storms over the past few years? Is it something like the January thaw in terms of timing or just a series of coincidences? We just remember the grinch events. 1995, 2002, 2009 were decidedly ungrinchy. 2004 also and 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 2008 also and 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 It's just simple coincidence we have had Grinch storms recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 2008 also and 2007. We had grinch storms in the days leading up to xmas in each of those seasons....didn't wipe the pack out, but it was most certainly skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 That poor kid.lOl my kids would absolutely cringe when I'd go all Snoop on them. I would do it just to get them riled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 If winter does indeed start mid Nov, 4 feet is great but quite possible. That is 48 inches and we average 80 or so. Our big winters range between 100 and 140, so 48 is not unreasonable. Not quite 80"...more like low 70s. We've been on quite a run though. The last 4' by New Year's was 2007-08. We actually had 5' that season right after the 1/1/08 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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