Stebo Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Interesting with the shift in wind direction on the NAM, the lake effect snow band in Michigan actually drops into the NE suburbs in St Clair, Macomb and eastern Wayne County. I am not expecting much but they did remove any accumulation from the forecast for Friday night and I think they might have to reintroduce a bit of accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I haven't lived here long enough to know the climo, but this has got to be unusual, right? Lake County getting three in a row with Porter shut out. (January, April, now October.) If you believe 4 km NAM, we're done with any and all rain/snow by 20z. Probably a little unusual. I recall some decent events in Lake county during my time there (and afterwards too) but not with the frequency of what Porter county gets. Porter is definitely the better place to be over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Noticed LOT going with waves up to 23ft on S. Lake Michigan. IIRC, that is the same general height as the waves during Sandy. Should be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1004 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014 ALL HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OF THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...AND THE RESULTING LARGE WAVES AND LAKESHORE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE IL LAKE SHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. REALLY IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WITH COLD AIR OVER WARM LAKE WATERS AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. ALLOWING FOR LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S F...LAKE-850 HPA DELTA T APPROACHES 20 DEG C DURING THE PERIOD AND YIELDS LAKE-INDUCED FORECAST CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG AND INVERSION LEVELS ABOVE 15 KFT. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...AND ITEM OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY...IS THE WARMTH OF THE WATER/SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUPPLIED BY THE LONG FETCH OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY MAY WELL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME WARM LOW LEVELS AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE INCREASED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY WSW TEXT. IF COLUMN IS ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR LONG DURATION +SN/TSSN...COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES MORE IN SOME SPOTS. IN ADDITION...THOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST...EXPECT LESS INTENSE RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPINGE UPON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND STATELINE AREAS AS WELL. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Noticed LOT going with waves up to 23ft on S. Lake Michigan. IIRC, that is the same general height as the waves during Sandy. Should be an interesting day. I took video's of those waves! Some of the biggest waves along Lake Michigan I've witnessed. Hoping to get some video and pictures of waves tomorrow before it gets dark. Lake surface temps. Total accumulated precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Interesting with the shift in wind direction on the NAM, the lake effect snow band in Michigan actually drops into the NE suburbs in St Clair, Macomb and eastern Wayne County. I am not expecting much but they did remove any accumulation from the forecast for Friday night and I think they might have to reintroduce a bit of accumulations. GRR mentioned the possibility of some enhancement/LES off of Huron sneaking into the se part of the area. Will be interesting to see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GRR mentioned the possibility of some enhancement/LES off of Huron sneaking into the se part of the area. Will be interesting to see how that works out. Agreed. Do you think the GR area will get our first snowfall tomorrow? I'm interested to see if we get thunderstorms on the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Even the 0z GFS looks a tad west from what I can tell. LE signal north of Detroit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 hrrr max winds gusts in knots at 17z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 hrrr max winds gusts in knots at 17z tomorrow hrrr winds.gif Interesting look there. That area of lesser wind in Lake county down through Benton county lines up with where the model has the core of the band at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Interesting look there. That area of lesser wind in Lake county down through Benton county lines up with where the model has the core of the band at that time.I think I've read somewhere that well organized lake effect bands tend to have stronger winds near the edges and lighter winds in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think I've read somewhere that well organized lake effect bands tend to have stronger winds near the edges and lighter winds in the middle. Yeah I think that's true. Though I've chased/been out in numerous well-organized single band events and not always perceived a noticeable drop off in winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think we might see a period of mostly/all snow in northeast IL tomorrow between 12-15z looking at the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think I've read somewhere that well organized lake effect bands tend to have stronger winds near the edges and lighter winds in the middle. Can confirm this is true in nearly all organized bands that form off Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah I think that's true. Though I've chased/been out in numerous well-organized single band events and not always perceived a noticeable drop off in winds.I've honestly been in so few single bands in recent years that I can't draw on personal experience. Buffaloweather seems to have some more experience haha. We'll see if that verifies tomorrow if a good band gets going. It would be incredibly cool if some of the interesting stuff on models can be confirmed via obs tomorrow.I like the signal of the hi-res NAM, NMM and ARW spitting out significant amounts (2/3 of them have I believe). I'm thinking there is a consolidated and very intense band for several hours tomorrow afternoon that doesn't move too much. If that does occur I have little doubt that someone would get 6 to possibly 10". I think the band may take some time to become narrow once it hits land due to the strong winds, so northern Lake and Porter counties may not see that...but southern Lake and Porter and northern Jasper and Newton may. I'm not a lake MI expert by any stretch so I don't care to guess where this aligns in an east/west sense, but I agree with Thunderroad being concerned about the slight westward nudge on the hi-res models if I were in Valpo. We'll see...I'd absolutely be jumping up and down if a similar setup occurred off of Lake Erie (and it did last October and produced up to 8"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Full hurricane winds here...man its insane out. Hope everything is tied down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I've honestly been in so few single bands in recent years that I can't draw on personal experience. Buffaloweather seems to have some more experience haha. We'll see if that verifies tomorrow if a good band gets going. It would be incredibly cool if some of the interesting stuff on models can be confirmed via obs tomorrow. I like the signal of the hi-res NAM, NMM and ARW spitting out significant amounts (2/3 of them have I believe). I'm thinking there is a consolidated and very intense band for several hours tomorrow afternoon that doesn't move too much. If that does occur I have little doubt that someone would get 6 to possibly 10". I think the band may take some time to become narrow once it hits land due to the strong winds, so northern Lake and Porter counties may not see that...but southern Lake and Porter and northern Jasper and Newton may. I'm not a lake MI expert by any stretch so I don't care to guess where this aligns in an east/west sense, but I agree with Thunderroad being concerned about the slight westward nudge on the hi-res models if I were in Valpo. We'll see...I'd absolutely be jumping up and down if a similar setup occurred off of Lake Erie (and it did last October and produced up to 8"). Generally agree with your thoughts. I had that exact range in mind as to what the higher end result may be like if it materializes. A huge uncertainty still is what happens closer to the lake. Some of those 4 km NAM runs have been trying to paint pretty high amounts practically right up to the shoreline, which would be something. It turns out that lake temps are very similar to the 10/31/1994 storm so I went back and looked at the GYY obs again. They dropped into the low 40s by late afternoon even with a howling NNE wind off the water. The airmass aloft tomorrow is a good deal colder than it was in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Generally agree with your thoughts. I had that exact range in mind as to what the higher end result may be like if it materializes. A huge uncertainty still is what happens closer to the lake. Some of those 4 km NAM runs have been trying to paint pretty high amounts practically right up to the shoreline, which would be something. It turns out that lake temps are very similar to the 10/31/1994 storm so I went back and looked at the GYY obs again. They dropped into the low 40s by late afternoon even with a howling NNE wind off the water. The airmass aloft tomorrow is a good deal colder than it was in 1994.For closer to the shoreline, I'm more worried about the band still being a bit too broad to really maximize how strong it can be...meaning dynamical cooling may not do the dirty work there. If a consolidated band can materialize right at the shoreline (as opposed to a bit inland) then I do think decent accums could occur almost down to the lakeshore under the band...but I'm not as certain about that occurring there due to the strong winds...but it's not impossible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wonder if LOT may end up expanding the advisory into eastern Cook/Will (Kankakee?). Growing evidence that at least the far eastern parts of those counties will be impacted by intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Agreed. Do you think the GR area will get our first snowfall tomorrow? I'm interested to see if we get thunderstorms on the lake. Not likely in regards to the thunderstorms. The initial frontal passage looks rather benign and then the lake effect will be offshore in this part of Michigan. As far as snow, I am expecting something, just not very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Snow is accumulating on the deck with this moderate to heavy burst of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Cant believe this is happening already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Lol ^ not at you....with you... Rain no longer in the p&c ... Snow chance upped for today and slight snow added for tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Short lived burst of moderate snow. Put a coating on the deck and car windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 P&C for here tonight has [expletive] in the forecast. Ahhh, it's like mid-winter in the LAF. A chance of snow and sleet before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 1039 HP seeping into NE North Dakota.... Wife saw some "larger" branches down on her route to the west side of Naperville for work fwiw...and she is pretty well versed in what is significant enough to report to me on weather-wise... starting to get that winter howl through the leafless trees as wind is starting to crank a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 P&C for here tonight has [expletive] in the forecast. Ahhh, it's like mid-winter in the LAF. A chance of snow and sleet before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Hahaha, may as well be January for you guys. Wind really whipping around right as the snow moved through earlier. Deck chairs launched all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Waking up to a dusting of snow here! Big flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 well, here's hoping for a smattering of TSSN reports in Lake Co under an epic lake band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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