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Major Hurricane Gonzalo


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000

URNT12 KNHC 160345

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014

A. 16/03:31:00Z

B. 24 deg 37 min N

068 deg 39 min W

C. 700 mb 2717 m

D. 114 kt

E. 070 deg 10 nm

F. 162 deg 109 kt

G. 070 deg 10 nm

H. 955 mb

I. 9 C / 3046 m

J. 14 C / 3052 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF301 0808A GONZALO OB 14

MAX FL WIND 118 KT 116 / 13 NM 00:46:30Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 17 KT

;

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SFMR report 135kt wind in NE Quad. But rainfall rate 43mm. Don't know if it will be used.:

 

122900 2550N 06833W 6954 02701 9469 +143 //// 120079 086 119 014 01
122930 2551N 06832W 6946 02757 9533 +124 //// 125110 121 123 022 01
123000 2553N 06830W 6959 02792 9613 +103 //// 126123 125 135 043 01
123030 2554N 06829W 6964 02829 9653 +109 //// 128118 123 115 042 01

 

A dropsonde in the NE eyewall recorded 143mph winds at surface and higher just above

 

Significant Wind Levels Level

Wind Direction Wind Speed

 

947mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)

945mb 115° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

941mb 120° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

936mb 125° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph)

923mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph)

917mb 140° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

916mb 140° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)

912mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)

905mb 150° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph)

901mb 150° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph)

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SFMR report 135kt wind in NE Quad. But rainfall rate 43mm. Don't know if it will be used.:

 

122900 2550N 06833W 6954 02701 9469 +143 //// 120079 086 119 014 01

122930 2551N 06832W 6946 02757 9533 +124 //// 125110 121 123 022 01

123000 2553N 06830W 6959 02792 9613 +103 //// 126123 125 135 043 01

123030 2554N 06829W 6964 02829 9653 +109 //// 128118 123 115 042 01

 

A dropsonde in the NE eyewall recorded 143mph winds at surface and higher just above

 

Significant Wind Levels Level

Wind Direction Wind Speed

 

947mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)

945mb 115° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

941mb 120° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

936mb 125° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph)

923mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph)

917mb 140° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

916mb 140° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)

912mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)

905mb 150° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph)

901mb 150° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph)

Don't think they'll take that SFMR due to the rain rate like you said - but that dropsonde is impressive.  Certainly supports at least the 120kt on the last advisory.

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Needless to say, small changes in the forecast path will be very important to Bermuda. Very likely they see hurricane conditions, since there seems to be strong agreement with the track on the models. the big question is whether they get the eyewall. If they get the eyewall this will likely be as bad as Fabian. 11 AM NHC track takes is almost right over the island with similar strength as Fabian.

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Incoming ERC...MW shows a secondary eyewall and a smaller inner eyewall that appears to be eroding. There's about 12 hours of a good shear profile, but it will be very vulnerable after 18-30 hours, and if it's still trying to recover from the ERC, Gonzalo could weaken much more than forecasted.

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vertical wind shear will be slowly increasing from here on out, but Ophelia (2011) showed what it is possible to have a Cat 4 hurricane at the latitude of Bermuda.

 

It looks like Gonzalo will have to have another clean EWRC and I'm not sure if will be able to complete this next cycle as the outer core becomes larger and becomes more susceptible to the impinging westerly vertical wind shear advecting drier mid-level air into the core. That's the primary factor that weakened Fabien down to a minimal Cat 3 at landfall. 

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136kt flight level, but SFMR 102kt.  Extrap pressure 941.0mb

 

000

URNT12 KNHC 162317

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014

A. 16/22:50:50Z

B. 27 deg 14 min N

067 deg 57 min W

C. 700 mb 2586 m

D. 94 kt

E. 307 deg 19 nm

F. 059 deg 96 kt

G. 309 deg 22 nm

H. 943 mb

I. 11 C / 3018 m

J. 15 C / 3045 m

K. 14 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. CO17-42

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF305 1008A GONZALO OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 136 KT 132 / 25 NM 22:58:30Z

OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED

INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF

STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL

;

 

Looks like the new outer eyewall is much larger and now the stronger winds are being recorded in the larger eyewall... this is bad news for Bermuda as it means a better chance of a direct impact from the larger outer eyewall. Its not surprising to see SFMR come down as the EWRC continues, but those intense flight level winds suggest that if the outer eyewall can organize after the inner eyewall collapses we could see one more round of reintensification. 

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