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Let's talk Winter!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Before I miss the party...essentially going with a Dilly/Mike blend :P

 

post-525-0-83638900-1425154772_thumb.png

 

I don't have time to do a full write-up with pretty images and what not, but here's a few paragraphs of explanation:

 

After the models sunk south a little bit on Friday, the trend since the 0z Saturday runs has been to drop the shortwave in the Plains in ever so slightly farther west, which allows for slightly higher heights and a better SW flow aloft over the lower and eastern Great Lakes. The majority of the 12z models have responded by beefing up the area of 0.50"+ QPF and bringing the higher QPF a little bit farther north in general than they were on Friday. The Euro, UKMET and SREF mean (when taking out the ARW core) have been most consistent with the placement of the QPF while the CMC has been consistently too far south, the NAM has waffled (and is currently higher than most other models) and the GFS was generally a little too far south but has trended north today.

 

There are two clear waves of better precipitation expected with this system. Wave one spreads in quickly from west to east between about 11PM and 1AM and persists through early to mid Sunday morning. There is then likely a break or slackening of precip rates for a few hours late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, before wave two moves in late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening before tapering. Both waves will be primarily focused by warm-air advection between 700mb and 500mb and some PVA with light to moderate precip rates. Wave one looks to hit all of the state fairly well except for NW Ohio...wave two may be focused a little bit inland from Lake Erie. Due to reasons discussed below it wouldn't surprise me if wave one does much better than wave two in terms of accumulations.

 

Much of the state should start as snow, however a warm nose is evident at around 925mb on the GFS/NAM/Euro all the way up to near I-70 or even a little farther north in the eastern half of the state late tonight into tomorrow morning. Surface temps will still be below freezing at this point, but the warm layer could be enough to cause a mix with freezing rain or sleet for a few hours in this area. The lift in the low levels and precip rates in general won't be as impressive as last Saturday's storm so I don't expect dynamical cooling to save the day like it did last weekend all the way down to Cincinnati. Behind wave one, warmer surface air will likely move into the state with the low level southerly winds. Again, dynamical cooling likely won't compensate as much as it did last week and air temps in the mid 30's could get close to I-70 east of Columbus by Sunday afternoon and surface temps above freezing could get to route 30 or even a little bit farther north. This will likely significantly limit additional accumulations Sunday afternoon and evening near and definitely south of I-70 and may put somewhat of a damper on things as far north as US 30 Sunday afternoon. Temps do cool pretty nicely later Sunday evening but the better precip pulls out at that point, so the bulk of the accumulations along and south of I-70 should come from wave one.

 

As for actual accumulations...there is excellent agreement on about 0.5-0.7" of QPF across much of the state, except a little less close to Lake Erie and in NW Ohio and across far southern Ohio. Looking over forecast soundings across the northern third of the state during wave one, the DGZ is rather thin, but there is lift in the DGZ and also a fairly deep isothermal layer near -10C with decent lift in that deep layer through wave one, which should be enough to get better than 10:1 ratios with wave one across the northern third of the state. With warming low to mid levels am expecting near 10:1 ratios with wave one once you get too far south of US 30. The low and mid levels warm a bit further even across northern Ohio which should cut ratios there for wave two down to closer to 10:1. However, average ratios for the event north of US 30 should be better than 10:1, so I followed an average of the ECM/SREF mean (minus the ARW core) 0.5" QPF line for the separator between 3-5" and 5-7" of snow. The 5" line as drawn also fits nicely with where the heavier precip from wave two should fall. While the NAM, some SREFs and the NMM both spit out a corridor of 0.7-0.8"+ of QPF just north of I-70, due to warming surface temps during the second part of the storm limiting how effectively new snow can accumulate I'm just not confident enough to go with more than 7" of snow on my map...will mention "locally higher" amounts but leave the range at 5-7". Amounts taper fairly quickly south of I-70. Near I-70 including Columbus much of wave one should be snow with perhaps a little mix early Sunday so there should still be a few inches...but mixing will significantly cut into wave one accums farther south, and wave two should fall as rain in much of southern OH, so showed a sharp cut off in snow accums just south of I-70 (as there often is).

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about)

Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then.

Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol.

Would this be the gary gray you're referring to?

http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html

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Maumee Bay Turf Center

Maumee Bay Turf Center

Posted
Posted

Dilly... Doh ! Rocks

Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then.

Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol.

Would this be the gary gray you're referring to?

http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then.

Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol.

Would this be the gary gray you're referring to?

http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html

 

 

That would be him.  The guy made a habit out of saying that he didn't have much time, and then would produce these long winded forecast discussions.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

That would be him. The guy made a habit out of saying that he didn't have much time, and then would produce these long winded forecast discussions.

Yea. Lol. I seen OH say that then just kept scrolling and scrolling (mobile). Then I realized, "wait a minute that first line was a trick to get us to read it all" lol. (We all read it anyways OH)

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about)

I've heard references to him, but he was definitely before my time on the board (joined eastern in early 2009)

 

Yea. Lol. I seen OH say that then just kept scrolling and scrolling (mobile). Then I realized, "wait a minute that first line was a trick to get us to read it all" lol. (We all read it anyways OH)

 :lol:

 

Haha, I considered it "shorter" because I sort of just threw a few paragraphs together...I've had some very long write ups before with a bunch of images (especially for lake effect) but wasn't feeling it today.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

I've heard references to him, but he was definitely before my time on the board (joined eastern in early 2009)

:lol:

Haha, I considered it "shorter" because I sort of just threw a few paragraphs together...I've had some very long write ups before with a bunch of images (especially for lake effect) but wasn't feeling it today.

One of these days I'll take the time to learn forecasting lake effect. One of the hardest things to forecast. I don't like in a lake area but would still like to learn the basics of it.

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JayPSU

JayPSU

Posted
Posted

I remember the Gary Gray days. That was back when I lived in Philadelphia. Back then I would obviously talk more to the east coast guys like Marcus (Vortmax), scottne, some other guy who was a little younger than me who lived near Mt. Holly, NJ and ended up at Penn State. The internet was so much different back then. We used to do all of our weather talk on the neweather part of a chat program called irc.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

12z GFS looks a little wetter, or I guess more "spread out" with 0.50"+ totals, for you guys than the 0z run. Certainly not drier.

 

0z GFS total QPF

 

 

 

12z GFS total QPF

 

In 48 hour QPF totals, the 18z GFS has

 

CMH: 0.6"

DAY: 0.6-0.7"

IND: 0.6"

LAF: 0.3-0.4"

CAK: 0.6-0.7"

CLE: 0.4"

PIT: 0.6-0.9" near Pittsburgh

 

0.1" of freezing rain from Cincinnati to Wheeling

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted

I remember the Gary Gray days. That was back when I lived in Philadelphia. Back then I would obviously talk more to the east coast guys like Marcus (Vortmax), scottne, some other guy who was a little younger than me who lived near Mt. Holly, NJ and ended up at Penn State. The internet was so much different back then. We used to do all of our weather talk on the neweather part of a chat program called irc.

I remember him to from back on the east coast too. He was on Eyewitness News 3 in Philly I think. He was an interesting character.
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JasonOH

JasonOH

Posted
Posted

Radars filling in quickly over southern Indiana, should see snow here in SW Ohio just after midnight I would guess. Dew points are still very low in all of Ohio!

You should have it very soon. It is already snowing up here. My guess for visability is SN, but it is dark so vis may be higher.

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