CoachLB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wouldn't that be something. Wash it all away and get it right back lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wouldn't that be something. Wash it all away and get it right back lol. it'll be interesting to see if models start trending towards a weaker #2 storm and a stronger #3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 that looks ok...definitely on the conservative side though. I think 4-6" is probably a good bet. I'm not sure why ILN is so hell bent on changing this to rain tomorrow. The nam was the only model showing that, and it has trended colder since. The 12z nam looks like it's all snow for Franklin County, with possible mixing for a brief time south of that. If accums are on the lighter side it may have more to do with less precip in general. Plumes took a big jump.....huge grouping between 4 and 6"....mean at 5" By the way, did you guys see the 00z euro? It goes bonkers with the 3rd wave and puts down like a foot of snow across the southeast half of OH after our rainstorm lol. Agreed. 5"-6" is where I think we'll be at in the end. ILN is too far north with the 4-6 line, imo, and I also don't get why they think a changeover is going to happen, but whatever. Their discussion just talks about warm air aloft pushing north through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Agreed. 5"-6" is where I think we'll be at in the end. ILN is too far north with the 4-6 line, imo, and I also don't get why they think a changeover is going to happen, but whatever. Their discussion just talks about warm air aloft pushing north through the storm.Again, I love that ILN is conservative! They are terrible! I hate to keep saying it but after last year & this year with their stupidity of putting up WSW when ALL models showed nothing but rain is inexcusable PERIOD! 12z NAM is easily 6" for me and you can see why the Cleveland office went 6-10 w/ heavier precip to my northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 gfs is a little drier. All of Franklin county is safely in the all snow soundings. One county south, (ie Fayette), may see some brief mixing if not an all out switch briefly to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 gfs is a little drier. All of Franklin county is safely in the all snow soundings. One county south, (ie Fayette), may see some brief mixing if not an all out switch briefly to rain.Agreed about GFS, but wasn't it drier last week? I mean ILN dropped WWA from 4-6 to 3-5. I just don't understand.Sorry, no they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Again, I love that ILN is conservative! They are terrible! I hate to keep saying it but after last year & this year with their stupidity of putting up WSW when ALL models showed nothing but rain is inexcusable PERIOD! 12z NAM is easily 6" for me and you can see why the Cleveland office went 6-10 w/ heavier precip to my northeast. nam is .66 for cmh.... soundings are safe...but really close. The 950's top at 0 briefly....so verbatim, some pinging could mix in from I-70 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Agreed about GFS, but wasn't it drier last week? I mean ILN dropped WWA from 4-6 to 3-5. I just don't understand. Sorry, no they didn't. yea. I haven't seen the qpf output yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 nam is .66 for cmh.... soundings are safe...but really close. The 950's top at 0 briefly....so verbatim, some pinging could mix in from I-70 south.I guess 4-6 is the right call then w/ WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 rgem looks good... pretty much has lined up with the nam and gfs. Looks like the concensus is now solidifying. About 12 hours til flakes, time to put down the models and fire up the radar. my final call: Westerville 5.75" CMH official: 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z GFS looks a little wetter, or I guess more "spread out" with 0.50"+ totals, for you guys than the 0z run. Certainly not drier. 0z GFS total QPF 12z GFS total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z GFS looks a little wetter, or I guess more "spread out", for you guys than the 0z run. Certainly not drier. that's what I get for eye balling the individual panels. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 rgem looks good... pretty much has lined up with the nam and gfs. Looks like the concensus is now solidifying. About 12 hours til flakes, time to put down the models and fire up the radar. my final call: Westerville 5.75" CMH official: 4.8" And Powell 5.8. Wooo! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 gfs says it's a no go for a 3rd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ILN issued a WWA. Going with 3-5" changing to all rain and ending Sunday afternoon which no model is showing this. None. Every model shows 6"+ across i70 especially north and none showing ending by Sunday afternoon. Maybe then did an update since issuance at 4AM, but I show CMH WWA until 10pm? Also, when taking melting/compaction into account, 4-6" is a great forecast. This is a case where you almost know that is going to occur, so no point in forecasting higher totals that almost no one will ever observe or verify your forecast with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 rgem looks good... pretty much has lined up with the nam and gfs. Looks like the concensus is now solidifying. About 12 hours til flakes, time to put down the models and fire up the radar. my final call: Westerville 5.75" CMH official: 4.8" 6.5" Adjusted for CMH style measuring BTW...that 0z Euro third wave.......can't remember ever seeing a big snow happen like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Adjusted for CMH style measuring BTW...that 0z Euro third wave.......can't remember ever seeing a big snow happen like that? me neither. I've seen back lash snows that met warning criteria before, but I've never seen a follow up wave like that dump snow on us as a rainer was departing. Interestingly, the uk and ggem are trending weaker and south with storm 2... that might have implications for more front end taint before a rain change over. Doesn't look like the ggem is doing anything with a third wave....and can't tell on the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Adjusted for CMH style measuring BTW...that 0z Euro third wave.......can't remember ever seeing a big snow happen like that? gotta admit, whoever has been doing CMH measuring the last couple years is definitely measuring from the taint. Every snowfall we've had this season, the CMH measurement has matched or exceeded my back yard...except for the last storm , but it was really close. That rarely happened in past winters. Usually I measure 6" imby and CMH comes in with 2.8" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I could see a few totals closing in on 6" especially north of I-70 (especially north of where my map goes) but in general I see compaction/melting limiting much past 3-5". Farther south, going close to a GFS/NAM blend. I do believe a glaze of ice accumulation is possible across NKY and CVG metro before changing to all rain by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Going less conservative than Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Zilch chance of that verifying. To far south and overall moisture is poor. Gonna be funny while watching it struggle to accum. Always the optimist troll!! No input..just pop in and rant!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Zilch chance of that verifying. To far south and overall moisture is poor. Gonna be funny while watching it struggle to accum. No way last system could come south either. Lol. Thanks for the input though. Love your optimism. The less optimistic you are the better chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 0.6-0.8" pwats advecting in to this system...wouldn't call that poor moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 The mean is now just over 5..quite a few memebers around 6 and a couple around 7..not bad!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150228&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CMH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.166 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hey I like it Dilly. NWS prediction center even sees they 6-8 band.. I look for upgrade to warning this evening for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice map Dilly. I am just less optimistic on the daytime March accumulation with marginal surface temps. But with 0.5 to 0.6" of QPF, there may end up being some 6" amounts. We'll see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hey I like it Dilly. NWS prediction center even sees they 6-8 band.. I look for upgrade to warning this evening for my area. NWS CLE lowered their winter storm watch to an advisory. NWS PITT has yet to issue anything which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NWS CLE lowered their winter storm watch to an advisory. NWS PITT has yet to issue anything which is surprising. I would imagine CLE sees this going further south for their areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 PITT going with a mix or Rain and snow for me from tomorrow afternoon until tomorrow night. With 2-5". Not buying that. No model shows the mix line coming this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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