buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Any chance the one during the week nmodels colder? 2" of rain will be a nightmare hard to tell but I'd say that looks very likely to be at least some rain. Yea, it's gonna be a mess. btw, the models try to bring the 850s furthest north during the height of the precip falling. That always sends a red flag. They did that with the last storm and failed. Hell, even when we had that lull, it remained snow once it started up again. This one doesn't look as wet as last week, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a high end advisory, low end warning criteria for Franklin county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 gfs still cranking the hell out of the storm next week....rain even up thru Chicago and MI.... get your waders on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 gfs still cranking the hell out of the storm next week....rain even up thru Chicago and MI.... get your waders on! So basically we lose all the snow that we got. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So basically we lose all the snow that we got. Great. yep...enjoy it.... nothing but a stat padder so when we look back years from now we wonder why we don't remember the season being that snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 drills in the cold air right behind it...back into the tundra after an inch or two of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 perfect recipe for ice damming on your roof if your house is at all susceptible to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If the Tuesday storm goes farther north maybe the big rain will wiff north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Definitely looking like rain for part 2, but I haven't paid much attention to it. Trying to hold off til system one is out of here. Just curious I'd there will be major shift one way or another once it is out of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ggem has an interesting scenario. A few inches for the southern half of OH for the first storm, followed by rain for the second, ending as a few more inches of snow. snow rain snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 heh, euro does the 3rd storm thing like the ggem. Gives franklin county 5-6" snow with #1 and then rains with #2, with a #3 following it's heels giving us something like 6"+ for the southern half of Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro and NAM are picking out a little warm layer around 925mb Sunday AM. Could see some patchy freezing rain down here in Cincy. I've been rolling with up to 1" Sunday AM which I see no reason to change at this time. I like 2-5 mostly snow in Columbus. I see 5-7" falling but midday March sun angle combined with forecast surface temps of 33-35 degrees will significantly limit accumulation. We saw that happen down here last Saturday where the only really good accumulation we got after 8-10am was with a couple extremely high end intense bands of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 heh, euro does the 3rd storm thing like the ggem. Gives franklin county 5-6" snow with #1 and then rains with #2, with a #3 following it's heels giving us something like 6"+ for the southern half of Ohio Bizarre! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 heh, euro does the 3rd storm thing like the ggem. Gives franklin county 5-6" snow with #1 and then rains with #2, with a #3 following it's heels giving us something like 6"+ for the southern half of Ohio Wave 3 is so far out that I haven't even been giving it much effort. Also seems kind of an odd setup...since when did we get 6" of snow with crashing temps on a major frontal passage from a cutting storm?? I see it tries to pop a very weak low in TN or SE KY. That must be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro and NAM are picking out a little warm layer around 925mb Sunday AM. Could see some patchy freezing rain down here in Cincy. I've been rolling with up to 1" Sunday AM which I see no reason to change at this time. I like 2-5 mostly snow in Columbus. I see 5-7" falling but midday March sun angle combined with forecast surface temps of 33-35 degrees will significantly limit accumulation. We saw that happen down here last Saturday where the only really good accumulation we got after 8-10am was with a couple extremely high end intense bands of precip. could be, but that seems odd coming off such an extended period of frigid temps....surface temps should be plenty cold, we'll have a snow cover, and of course it'll be cloudy when it's snowing...lol. But yea, I'm not saying you're wrong...it's definitely that time of year where these things become considerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 kind of surprised to see CLE hoist watches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 From the zones it looks like ILN is still thinking this is a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 From the zones it looks like ILN is still thinking this is a non-event. Love this! They suck so bad over there so this bodes well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 could be, but that seems odd coming off such an extended period of frigid temps....surface temps should be plenty cold, we'll have a snow cover, and of course it'll be cloudy when it's snowing...lol. But yea, I'm not saying you're wrong...it's definitely that time of year where these things become considerations. Last weekend we were coming off even colder conditions with a decent snow pack in place and had no problem getting to 33-34 degrees. I think getting much warmer would be hard with such a weak system, but at 33-34 the damage is already being done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 they got burned with the last one over estimating the warmth and had to nowcast it into an all snow event. Oddly IND said they would hold off on watches until later periods....and they're well west of CLE's zones. Coordination issues this afternoon apparently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Last weekend we were coming off even colder conditions with a decent snow pack in place and had no problem getting to 33-34 degrees. I think getting much warmer would be hard with such a weak system, but at 33-34 the damage is already being done. it's amazingly similar to the last set up....but it's also one week deeper into the season, so yea, it's not going to be a slam dunk. All the reasons I thought the last one wouldn't changeover are in place for this one. Pos tilted trough, extremely weak wave, cold air being dis-lodged, and the precip coming in as snow. Granted, as Pondo said, no 2 systems are exactly alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 FWIW, the18Z GFS looks like it isn't as far north with the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow lol. Local met on ch7 going all in for 7-11 inches north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here is my 1st call. Think some local mets are going way overboard on totals. Guess I'll update tomorrow afternoon if models indicate higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here is my 1st call. Think some local mets are going way overboard on totals. Guess I'll update tomorrow afternoon if models indicate higher amounts. 1513789_713183482113071_3835477966220297278_n-picsayblank-picsay.png Looks good to me. What r some of the local mets calling for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here is my 1st call. Think some local mets are going way overboard on totals. Guess I'll update tomorrow afternoon if models indicate higher amounts. 1513789_713183482113071_3835477966220297278_n-picsayblank-picsay.png Pretty bold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks good. I was thinking 5-7 in my area. That's what you have for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here is my 1st call. Think some local mets are going way overboard on totals. Guess I'll update tomorrow afternoon if models indicate higher amounts. 1513789_713183482113071_3835477966220297278_n-picsayblank-picsay.png Considering today's trends, i think it's a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks good to me. What r some of the local mets calling for?6-10 north of i70 which I think is way overdone. Bradley has rain mixing in to us30. 0z Nam kinda shows the 850 line getting to or maybe a bit north of i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 6-10 north of i70 which I think is way overdone. Bradley has rain mixing in to us30. 0z Nam kinda shows the 850 line getting to or maybe a bit north of i70. I think we're ok (meaning I-70 corridor) as far as 850 temps. Problem looks like the 950 temps tickling slightly above freezing, (like +0.7) very briefly just north of I-70. That would probably spell a brief mix to rain as far north as the edge of Delaware county. Again, as I said about the last storm, if we get into steady precip and don't lull, I don't see us changing here in the CMH area. If the precip starts looking more showery vs. steady, we might have a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 by the way....Ganahl's forecast tonight on the news was a pile of the wtf? lol His graphics didn't match what he was saying. He was talking about how we will change to rain as his future radar model was looping in the background showing an all snow event north of Chillicothe. Then he showed the snow amount forecast which had the heaviest snow in the state right across Columbus at 5.5" and he said the snow will be heavier the further nw you go from Columbus. Then to top it off, he ended it by saying several inches of snow on Sunday and the graphic for Sunday had rain By the way, he is HUGE! Remember when he supposedly had to lose all that weight because he was retaining a ton of water, he passed out, flat-lined and was off work for several weeks? Well he is now even bigger then when that happened. He's almost TLC documentary big. In all seriousness he's stumbling thru a minefield right now as far as his health is concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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