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andyhb

Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

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There’s definitely a noteworthy signal, but this is well into the medium range, so let’s see how it evolves in the coming days...

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Man I just looked at the 12Z Euro and I shouldn't have. Probably just getting my hopes up at this point. Still a week out but going to monitor trends closely. Honestly if it even hints at trending towards today's 12Z run it will be a fun week of model watching and potentially prepping for a central/southern plains severe weather event. Just feels like it's been forever since there was anything here in the SC Kansas area. That was quite the model run though!

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I'd be hesitant to get too hyped about the Euro at this range. We've seen too many times where the first trough in a pattern change is the sacrifice for the greater good of later times.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'd be hesitant to get too hyped about the Euro at this range. We've seen too many times where the first trough in a pattern change is the sacrifice for the greater good of later times.

I agree, but isn't that the system with the Day 4-5 outlooks currently for Friday/Saturday?

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I agree, but isn't that the system with the Day 4-5 outlooks currently for Friday/Saturday?

No, that trough is pretty much the end point of the current pattern as it exits.

Can see the whole evolution nicely on a 500mb loop.


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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'd be hesitant to get too hyped about the Euro at this range. We've seen too many times where the first trough in a pattern change is the sacrifice for the greater good of later times.

GFS hints at this very idea (and has actually for several runs, really), with early May potentially being a powder keg over the Plains.

Euro and EPS are on a bit of an island right now wrt to the trough evolution on Tuesday. That's not to say that it couldn't end up being right -- but generally the days of the euro absolutely owning mid-range verification seem to anecdotally be coming to an end.

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DFW's latest 1st 90*F high on record is 6/6. That same season also had only 1 100*F+ day.

I pray we don't make a run for those records. But it doesn't look like DFW has a legitimate shot at 90*F+ any time in the forseeable future. 

The average first 90*F+ day is 4/19, BTW.

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4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

DFW's latest 1st 90*F high on record is 6/6. That same season also had only 1 100*F+ day.

I pray we don't make a run for those records. But it doesn't look like DFW has a legitimate shot at 90*F+ any time in the forseeable future. 

The average first 90*F+ day is 4/19, BTW.

Actually, I'm mistaken. the latest was actually 6/12.

But that was definitely a back loaded Summer, as DFW ended up with 18 100*F+ days. 

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Actually, I'm mistaken. the latest was actually 6/12.

But that was definitely a back loaded Summer, as DFW ended up with 18 100*F+ days. 

My (natural gas companies) in house meteorologists are thinking a hot summer right now, I think based primarily on 2011 analog. Haven’t bought in to that yet, probably because I hate hot summers 

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39 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

My (natural gas companies) in house meteorologists are thinking a hot summer right now, I think based primarily on 2011 analog. Haven’t bought in to that yet, probably because I hate hot summers 

So far, this Spring hasn't had many similarities with 2011.

For April 2011, the temp was 71*F. This year, it's currently 63*F (average is 66.5*F). Spring 2011 was also dry as a bone (no observed precip for March and April). This Spring, to-date, we're at 5.9". 

The temp for March this year was similar to 2011, though. 

 

 

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Not digging the look of upper air pattern in medium to long range. The trough next week has really trended to a more sheared out positive tilt that eventually cuts off an upper low. Long range gfs builds in a big ridge west and trough east that eventually turns into an omega block. Euro doesn't go out as far as gfs but it also looked to be building a pretty substantial ridge. Obviously this can and will change as models do but definitely discouraging to see. 

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26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not digging the look of upper air pattern in medium to long range. The trough next week has really trended to a more sheared out positive tilt that eventually cuts off an upper low. Long range gfs builds in a big ridge west and trough east that eventually turns into an omega block. Euro doesn't go out as far as gfs but it also looked to be building a pretty substantial ridge. Obviously this can and will change as models do but definitely discouraging to see. 

Lol this is starting to sound like a rinse and repeat of 2020. One good photogenic storm chase event in April then it all shuts down in May.

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1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not digging the look of upper air pattern in medium to long range. The trough next week has really trended to a more sheared out positive tilt that eventually cuts off an upper low. Long range gfs builds in a big ridge west and trough east that eventually turns into an omega block. Euro doesn't go out as far as gfs but it also looked to be building a pretty substantial ridge. Obviously this can and will change as models do but definitely discouraging to see. 

Maybe DFW can eventually get a nice derecho like it did in June 2019 to make up for the otherwise "BLAH!!!" season...

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I've heard rumblings just a few days ago of the MJO going through a favorable progression for CONUS severe weather. Is this no longer expected to happen, or are there other factors at play that are expected to negate its impact?

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I see the SPC added a marginal risk for just hail over a small section of South Dacovid that contains 87,000 people in this morning’s D1 outlook. Even they’re bored with this dull severe weather season.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I see the SPC added a marginal risk for just hail over a small section of South Dacovid that contains 87,000 people in this morning’s D1 outlook. Even they’re bored with this dull severe weather season.

I wouldn't call it a dull season.

It's just that Dixie Alley has gotten all of the action.

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1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

We haven’t even hit May yet. Still plenty of season left. 

At least here in DFW, the climatological peak for Severe Weather is now.

There's still time (and yes, big severe weather events have happened in May or even June), but climo is going to gradually become less favorable as we move forward from here.

 

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On 4/26/2021 at 4:20 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

I've heard rumblings just a few days ago of the MJO going through a favorable progression for CONUS severe weather. Is this no longer expected to happen, or are there other factors at play that are expected to negate its impact?

This is still on track. Mid to end of May we could see an uptick of severe weather across the Plains.

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The fun begins next weekend.

 

Last Friday, this past Tue/Wed and this upcoming Mon were just the pre-game.

 

 

The first week of May had been the original target, but per usual it was delayed a week.

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5 hours ago, Powerball said:

As of 3pm, for the first time this year, DFW has hit 90*F.

Official high at DFW was 92*F, by far the hottest day of the year.

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On 4/30/2021 at 8:19 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The fun begins next weekend.

 

Last Friday, this past Tue/Wed and this upcoming Mon were just the pre-game.

 

 

The first week of May had been the original target, but per usual it was delayed a week.

Maybe not.

Anyone following @andyhb on Twitter knows the situation.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Maybe not.

Anyone following @andyhb on Twitter knows the situation.

When you posted on Friday I said “it’s only downhill from here” :lol:

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Models are beginning to come into maybe some agreement for an apparent severe weather threat near the I-35 corridor in KS/OK on Saturday. It's a pretty subtle S/W that, for the most part, has not been particularly well modeled to this point (eg. the Euro did not even show it until last night's 00z run).

Still some issues to work out. But 18z GFS and 12z Euro are in pretty dang good agreement for a 100+ hour forecast. Attached 500mb, 850mb, and SFC td map from 12z Euro.

500wh.conus.png

850wh.conus.png

sfctd_b.conus.png

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4 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Models are beginning to come into maybe some agreement for an apparent severe weather threat near the I-35 corridor in KS/OK on Saturday. It's a pretty subtle S/W that, for the most part, has not been particularly well modeled to this point (eg. the Euro did not even show it until last night's 00z run).

Still some issues to work out. But 18z GFS and 12z Euro are in pretty dang good agreement for a 100+ hour forecast. Attached 500mb, 850mb, and SFC td map from 12z Euro.

500wh.conus.png

 

That ****-ing NW-SE stream from south-central Canada down into the mid-Atlantic. The thing about the favorable tropical forcing etc I thought was it was supposed to make that go away, at least temporarily. What's it going to take to allow for a trough to dig into the western US and spin out a sequence of shortwaves that can then traverse the central and eastern US unimpeded, with ready access to rich Gulf moisture, as happened in years like 1999, 2004 and 2008?

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Right about when KC Chiefs drafts solidified our offensive line, that blocking also went up into the -NAO. NFL Draft teleconnection?

Weather is complex. Tropical forcing failed. NAO won. However the risk was always there, with a rising (now verified) GLAAM forecast. S* happens in weather.

Tropical forcing will have another try starting about May 15. It's weather. We'll see. However Mets are tired of Monday morning QBs who never attempted a forecast.

It's understood that any hype past 7 days is just jawboning, not a real forecast. Positive vibes to all the chase-cationers!

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We just can't shake these ne troughs this year. Really creating a lot of downstream blocking. Long range gfs digs a major trough into the ne and a ridge builds in the central US as another trough digs into west coast. This omega block would definitely significantly lower severe wx chances. Just can't seem to shake eastern troughing this year. I only have between May 14 and June 1 to chase and I'm not feeling very optimistic right now. 

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ICT was pretty gung-ho about Saturday in their afternoon AFD.

Quote
Sat...The central CONUS mid/upper ridge is progged to break down as
we move into Sat as a vigorous mid/upper trough moves into the
Rockies. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates will spread downstream across the
forecast area while a sharp dryline is progged to develop across
south central KS during the afternoon hours. The warm sector is
progged to remain capped early in the day as low level moisture
gradually deepens as we move through the afternoon hours. This is
expected to result in moderate instability by afternoon with
favorable low lvl CAPE/Shear for all modes of severe weather into
the evening hours. This forecast will be trended toward an
increasing severe weather threat on Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

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