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2014-15 winter outlook


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it's interesting that they are forecasting a good portion of the south to be drier than normal and near normal for Atlanta and Birmingham. I thought el ninos usually brought wetter than normal conditions in the south ? It looks like their thinking is Florida and areas close to the coast are the areas that will be wet.
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it's interesting that they are forecasting a good portion of the south to be drier than normal and near normal for Atlanta and Birmingham. I thought el ninos usually brought wetter than normal conditions in the south ? It looks like their thinking is Florida and areas close to the coast are the areas that will be wet.

Snowstorm ,

No, during Nino's, ATL and BHM average near normal precip. when taking average for all Nino's (really a mix of dry/wet/near normal) with above average precip. further south and east including FL/Waycross/SAV/Gainseville/E Carolinas and drier than normal further NW like in parts of TN. If you're concerned about the chances of above normal wintry precip. during Niño that is both cold and has near normal precip., don't be. I've already done analysis (and posted results here a couple of days ago) that actually shows that cold/near normal precip. has overall done slightly better than cold/wet regarding amounts of wintry precip. at ATL. The cold/dry ones don't do as well overall though even the difference between cold/near normal precip. & cold/dry are not that big on average regarding wintry precip. amounts.

Also, don't forget that near normal DJF precip. isn't chicken feed as 14" is not exactly dry lol. After all, if ATL were to get, say, 1" of wintry liquid equivalent precip. (just 7% of its normal total precip.), it would be considered a big year wintry precip wise in all likelihood.

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Snowstorm ,

No, during Nino's, ATL and BHM average near normal precip. when taking average for all Nino's (really a mix of dry/wet/near normal) with above average precip. further south and east including FL/Waycross/SAV/Gainseville/E Carolinas and drier than normal further NW like in parts of TN. If you're concerned about the chances of above normal wintry precip. during Niño that is both cold and has near normal precip., don't be. I've already done analysis (and posted results here a couple of days ago) that actually shows that cold/near normal precip. has overall done slightly better than cold/wet regarding amounts of wintry precip. at ATL. The cold/dry ones don't do as well overall though even the difference between cold/near normal precip. & cold/dry are not that big on average regarding wintry precip. amounts.

Also, don't forget that near normal DJF precip. isn't chicken feed as 14" is not exactly dry lol. After all, if ATL were to get, say, 1" of wintry liquid equivalent precip. (just 7% of its normal total precip.), it would be considered a big year wintry precip wise in all likelihood.

Larry, you're the best. Thanks for all the info :)
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Been a lot of talk about a central pac based Nino and the correlation to a cold eastern-US versus an east pac based nino which are typically warmer.  The central pac is still the coolest, the CFS still thinks this does develop to a central based nino...

 

color_newdisp_anomaly_global_lat_lon_oph

 

 

CFS...

 

glbSSTSeaInd3.gif

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OPI is at -2.80...Grit pointed out in the main thread that it's possible to finish October around -3.00, based on current modeling.  Eurasian snow cover build-up is amazing.  Interestingly enough, the AO, which was forecast to go positive in the near future, now is looking more uncertain in terms of its direction.  CPC had been showing a pretty clear rise.  Now the ensemble guidance looks split, with some members heading north and some south.  Nino appears to be slowly gaining steam as well.  So, things continue to look on track for a good winter!

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OPI is at -2.80...Grit pointed out in the main thread that it's possible to finish October around -3.00, based on current modeling. Eurasian snow cover build-up is amazing. Interestingly enough, the AO, which was forecast to go positive in the near future, now is looking more uncertain in terms of its direction. CPC had been showing a pretty clear rise. Now the ensemble guidance looks split, with some members heading north and some south. Nino appears to be slowly gaining steam as well. So, things continue to look on track for a good winter!

Pretty amazing, a few days ago it looked certain that the end of Oct would have +AO spike. Now Euro ENS has been trending to neutral and GEFS is showing it dipping negative again. Neither ENS mean model shows it going positive.

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Pretty amazing, a few days ago it looked certain that the end of Oct would have +AO spike. Now Euro ENS has been trending to neutral and GEFS is showing it dipping negative again. Neither ENS mean model shows it going positive.

 

This may be an important thing to note as we go through the fall and winter.  I haven't looked at the Euro or Euro Ens output, but the GFS has had a pretty decent positive bias with it's AO forecasts in the LR.  I haven't looked at the PNA or NAO either.  But for the AO, there's been a definitive positive bias for a while now.  We'll see if that lasts into the winter.  I will also start looking at the PNA and NAO but just haven't cared much about them to this point.

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This may be an important thing to note as we go through the fall and winter.  I haven't looked at the Euro or Euro Ens output, but the GFS has had a pretty decent positive bias with it's AO forecasts in the LR.  I haven't looked at the PNA or NAO either.  But for the AO, there's been a definitive positive bias for a while now.  We'll see if that lasts into the winter.  I will also start looking at the PNA and NAO but just haven't cared much about them to this point.

I haven't cared as well, and going along with that thought everything looks to average very neutral the next week or so:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Not sure how much I'll care going into this winter. Last year the NAO, PNA, and AO looked bad while we were still getting winter storms.

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Here's a good read about the Eurasian snow coverage and how it can effect our winter. They did state that it took the entire month to make a prediction. As others(here) have stated there is an actual week (41, 42, etc.)that is specifically more important.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html

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Here's a good read about the Eurasian snow coverage and how it can effect our winter. They did state that it took the entire month to make a prediction. As others(here) have stated there is an actual week (41, 42, etc.)that is specifically more important.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html

Yeah Larry and another Met have stated in great detail about the weeks and the importance of the weeks concerning the outcome of the AO. The main thread on the forum is amazing to read with lots of great info and education.

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Found an old historic post while searching for info, in case anyone is interested in what is left of our former board. Larry was hot stuff with the info back then also. Appreciate the work you put in GaWx!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/206033-coldest-winters-since-1894-5-analysis-of-ensopdonao-stats-to-use-as-fcasting-tools/

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Wxsouth made a post on Facebook an hour ago that is very positive for winter. Can't copy and paste it from my phone, but he said the features that show up in the Euro and GFS are very good for snow and ice in the south.

 

Yeah bc in a way this winter will be like last. If you have noticed the flow from last winter all summer till now and look at the the mean for the next 10-12 days even though things have been great as far as snow pack goes in Siberia.... the mean 500mb polar vortex is trying setup on our side of the globe like last.

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Pack, is that the Jamstec?

It looks like there's still a split in the AO forecast with some members going negative and some going positive in the LR. The OPI is -1.86. Need that to shoot down to -3.00 or so.

Correct, it's the Jamstec. I wish it would break it out monthly. Maybe Dec is warm for us.

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I thought it was an excellent read.  It really takes into consideration many of the variables used to make these seasonal forecasts.  Here's a link to his page:

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/2014/10/winter-forecast-preview-2014-15/

It was a good read.  I especially thought his discussion on the NAO was interesting, I have seen a couple of other really good mets comment on the atlantic potentially being favorable...

post-2311-0-62588300-1413905194_thumb.pn

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Earthlight in the NY Metro forum said the Atlantic looks as close to perfect he has seen this time of year, in terms of preloading for a -NAO.  That Al guy that busted the NAO forecast last year has it predicted at a -0.13 this year, which is not much.  Just glancing at his historical forecasts vs. reality, it *looks* (just from the eyeball test) that misses usually occur because the forecast was too low.

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I thought it was an excellent read.  It really takes into consideration many of the variables used to make these seasonal forecasts.  Here's a link to his page:

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/2014/10/winter-forecast-preview-2014-15/

Very well done. Makes excellent points. Could be our best chance for a memorable winter in a while.

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Earthlight in the NY Metro forum said the Atlantic looks as close to perfect he has seen this time of year, in terms of preloading for a -NAO.

 

I swear, the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies could look like an elephant's behind and someone would say we have a -NAO tripole.  It seems that way every year around this time..............but in all seriousness, the current cold pool looks pretty close to -NAO precursors (though just a bit east of ideal).

 

Here's the Oct SST anomaly pattern in the Atlantic prior to the top 10 most negative NAO winters on record (DJFM).

2cfdzk4.png

 

And here's where we are over the last 2 weeks (cold pool developing in the Atlantic east of the Candian maritimes) - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

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^ Haha yeah we hear something like that every year. This year is pretty close. Maybe the upcoming storm will cause some cooling farther east.... But overall, not bad.

I hate relying on a -NAO, but we need it, hard for us to get 6"+ snow event without it. Last time NAO was still solidly negative was 4 seasons ago.

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