2014-15 winter outlook

[packbacker]

untitled.png

 

I'm out!  

 

Like my new avatar?

[Cold Rain]

I'm out!  

 

Like my new avatar?

 

Love it!  Do NOT change it until 3/31.  Well done, sir.

[NC_hailstorm]

-QBO and solar max is still a bad setup for cold in the SE,huge ridge placement there.

 

Solar flux today was an amazing 199 reading.90 day running average continues to creep up.

 

Just something to watch.

[DaculaWeather]

It's only up due to the massive sunspot getting ready to point toward earth. It will rotate away soon.

[GaWx]

1) There's clearly a lot of trolling going on in this here thread.

2) For much of the SE, keep in mind that above average snowfall has in the past been met with just one major storm in many cases. In Atlanta, one major snowstorm means ~200% or more of normal total snow, which is only 2" at 100% normal.  The best track by far for many in the inland SE (for SN not ZR) is a Miller A coming across south GA or N/C FL. In a big winter, there often is only one really big one for the SE. Even in a big winter, there often is no more than 5-10% of total precip. that is wintry. This is not the NE US where the general storm track is crucial to allow for multiple big hits to have a big winter. Up there a far larger % of total precip. is wintry...duh..probably 25-50% in many cases.

 3) IF the main storm track were something other than Miller A but the SE got a great hit from ONE Miller A, much of the SE would still likely do quite well for the season. Rarely is the main storm track Miller A. At best, it may be one of several prominent storm tracks.

[FallsLake]

-QBO and solar max is still a bad setup for cold in the SE,huge ridge placement there.

 

Solar flux today was an amazing 199 reading.90 day running average continues to creep up.

 

Just something to watch.

Sun spot 2192 is very impressive. I think they stated it was the largest cluster of this cycle. Although, I do think we are on our way down. This cycle is abnormally low for it's max so maybe we don't need to go far to gain the benefits.

http://spaceweather.com/

[RONALD B]

1) There's clearly a lot of trolling going on in this here thread.

2) For much of the SE, keep in mind that above average snowfall has in the past been met with just one major storm in many cases. In Atlanta, one major snowstorm means ~200% or more of normal total snow, which is only 2".  The best track by far for many in the inland SE (for SN not ZR) is a Miller A coming across south GA or N/C FL. In a big winter, there often is only one really big one for the SE. Even in a big winter, there often is no more than 5-10% of total precip. that is wintry. This is not the NE US where the general storm track is crucial to allow for multiple big hits to have a big winter. Up there a far larger % of total precip. is wintry...duh..probably 25-50% in many cases.

 3) IF the main storm track were something other than Miller A but the SE got a great hit from ONE Miller A, much of the SE would still likely do quite well for the season.

It's called wennie alert if any thing a neg QBO favors  A blocky pattern ,The sun spots are no where close too the early 2000 winters .we will be fine let the wennie roast begin !

[griteater]

Best examples of coast to coast cold winters (DJFM)...

 

[griteater]

Regarding winter outlook storm tracks...I think one way to look at is, not so much that the projected track will occur over and over again, but that an equal percentage of the storm tracks will occur south and north of the projected track.

[GaWx]

Regarding winter outlook storm tracks...I think one way to look at is, not so much that the projected track will occur over and over again, but that an equal percentage of the storm tracks will occur south and north of the projected track.

 

I think it is very, very dificult, if not virtually impossible, for Miller A's going across S GA/N FL with cold enough air to the north to be very dominant in any winter. If not, then why hasn't Atlanta ever had more than 15" in any one season (since the late 1800's)? The very best one can reasonably hope for would be for a few of them mixed in with other types of storm tracks. Sometimes, one is enough to make for a big winter for many in the SE.

[GaWx]

Yeah, had alot of damming events this summer, let's bring those back in Jan, we will be in bidness!

 

 Even if a colder and snowier winter, I'd be surprised if we get the degree of CAD like what the SE US had last winter. It was phenominal in frequency, strength and extent imo. As evidence of this, CHS got two ZR's...yes CHS! And they almost had a 3rd one! SAV got its first one in decades. This came after two years for which CAD was not too good.

 

Edit: Neutral negative ENSO (like 2013-4) has been the most favorable ENSO for major ATL ZR. We won't have that. However, some weak Nino's have produced major ZR's, including some real doozies. So, we'll see.

[packbacker]

Based on what? Everything looks positive for winter. 

 

HAH, we are just kidding Brick.  To be honest, I can't think of how things could look better for this upcoming winter, which is a little scary.  It's hard to imagine us getting skunked, I would guess there is a 50% chance we are between 5-10" on the season, 20% chance we are below 5" and 30% we are over 10".  If RDU had any luck I would increase the over but not feeling our luck has changed yet.

[Cold Rain]

Primary storm track this winter.  JB #winning.  Happy Halloween!

 

[Bob Chill]

Regarding winter outlook storm tracks...I think one way to look at is, not so much that the projected track will occur over and over again, but that an equal percentage of the storm tracks will occur south and north of the projected track.

Good post. When I talk about southern storm track in the MA forum, I'm speaking solely about CA/southern rockies/TX. What happens after TX is tricky. I do think we will have a southern storm track (in the areas I mentioned) at times this winter. There are hints of it starting up in mid Nov on guidance already. If the atmosphere is going to behave like a nino, it would almost be expected to start sometime in Nov and continue off and on.

 

2 ways to get that track in general is a -pna with a deep trough axis centered west of the 4 corners region or a +pna/goa ridging and energy undercutting. My hunch is we get both this winter. With the former coming early and the latter coming late. Just a total hunch/wag. We'll see how things are shaping up in a month. 

 

One of the caveats to expecting a -ao/nao to perform in the snow department is that the blocking can be overwhelmed by a crappy pac. I'm not sure about areas further south in these years but all 4 of them sucked snow wise in Dec in my area. 

 

 

 

I see no reason to toss the idea of a -pna and unfavorable GOA (lowest heights centered too far east) showing up at times this winter. Even with blocking it causes problems for both our regions. Notsomuch further north. 

[Cold Rain]

I would think it would be rare to have a wall to wall +PNA and an entire winter with no GOA vortex or troughing up there.  In fact, I would be very surprised if we didn't see some rather unfavorable periods throughout the winter.  If the Pacific firehose gets cranking, even a strong -NAO wouldn't help a lot with regard to wintry weather.  Instead of warm rain, we'd get cool rain.  But I'm not seeing any overwhelming evidence of a sustained, super strong Pac jet.  So, if we can avoid that, along with avoiding a raging +AO, we should have plenty of opportunities for cold blasts.  And if the STJ is rolling, then we'll have some decent wintery weather threats too.

 

I'm not sure there will ever be any situations where anyone from the mid-Atlantic or SE could go into the winter without having at least a few concerns.  But on my list of years with pre-winter concerns, this has to be one of the years with the fewest.  So, when it's all said and done, this winter could certainly turn out to be a warm and terrible winter, but so far, as of today, there is nothing that looks really bad to me. 

[mackerel_sky]

Even if a colder and snowier winter, I'd be surprised if we get the degree of CAD like what the SE US had last winter. It was phenominal in frequency, strength and extent imo. As evidence of this, CHS got two ZR's...yes CHS! And they almost had a 3rd one! SAV got its first one in decades. This came after two years for which CAD was not too good.

Edit: Neutral negative ENSO (like 2013-4) has been the most favorable ENSO for major ATL ZR. We won't have that. However, some weak Nino's have produced major ZR's, including some real doozies. So, we'll see.

What were the enso states in 02/ Dec and 05/dec ? Those are the worst ice storms in recent memory around here! Massive tree damage and outages during those events!

[Bob Chill]

Another good post, CR. I wasn't trying to be a deb or anything. I personally don't see a historic door to door winter on tap but I definitely don't see an epic fail either. Heck, I thought last year was gonna stink. Oops. 

 

The only month I'm really concerned about is December but otoh it's not like Dec is a snowy month for either of us. We should have some nice periods of opportunity. If we don't, there will be an awful lot of head scratching come post mortem. 

 

ETA: I always look at it this way. My yard averages 12" of precip from Dec through mid March. It only takes about 2" to fall as snow to hit climo. Or 17% if you look at the percentage. So I should always expect 83% of my winter precip to fall as rain. Of course I hate rain in winter but it's unavoidable way more often than not. I prefer cold rain over warm rain any day in winter.  

[Cold Rain]

Another good post, CR. I wasn't trying to be a deb or anything. I personally don't see a historic door to door winter on tap but I definitely don't see an epic fail either. Heck, I thought last year was gonna stink. Oops. 

 

The only month I'm really concerned about is December but otoh it's not like Dec is a snowy month for either of us. We should have some nice periods of opportunity. If we don't, there will be an awful lot of head scratching come post mortem. 

 

Yeah, I gotcha Bob.  Your thoughts are always well-reasoned and well-measured, and that's why we really enjoy reading what you have to say and welcome your posts here anytime.  Personally, I'm leaning toward a bigger winter this year, but there is no guarantee either way.  There is still so very little we know about the climate.  Even good analogue years still have differences.  And sometimes those differences, even if they seem inconsequential, might just end up playing a bigger role than we realize, resulting in a different outcome than we expect.

 

The good thing is, the players seem to be on the field so far.  I just hope they know how to play come game time.

[GaWx]

What were the enso states in 02/ Dec and 05/dec ? Those are the worst ice storms in recent memory around here! Massive tree damage and outages during those events!

 

Dec. 02: Moderate El Nino

Dec. 05: either weak La Nina per newer version or neutral negative per the older version

 

KATL's last one: last winter (neutral negative) for airport south and east. ATL also had the 12/02 & 12/05 ones though they weren't severe

[LithiaWx]

Yeah, I gotcha Bob.  Your thoughts are always well-reasoned and well-measured, and that's why we really enjoy reading what you have to say and welcome your posts here anytime.  Personally, I'm leaning toward a bigger winter this year, but there is no guarantee either way.  There is still so very little we know about the climate.  Even good analogue years still have differences.  And sometimes those differences, even if they seem inconsequential, might just end up playing a bigger role than we realize, resulting in a different outcome than we expect.

 

The good thing is, the players seem to be on the field so far.  I just hope they know how to play come game time.

 

I predict we will hear this statement about two dozen times this winter.  Who wants the over?

[Cold Rain]

I predict we will hear this statement about two dozen times this winter.  Who wants the over?

 

I'll take the over!

[SnowNiner]

HAH, we are just kidding Brick.  To be honest, I can't think of how things could look better for this upcoming winter, which is a little scary.  It's hard to imagine us getting skunked, I would guess there is a 50% chance we are between 5-10" on the season, 20% chance we are below 5" and 30% we are over 10".  If RDU had any luck I would increase the over but not feeling our luck has changed yet.

 

Yeah with everything looking so favorable, you almost expect mother nature to pull a SIKE! on us just to see us squirm (sike yo mind yo ball head shine). 

 

One thing I haven't heard much about though is the thing that had the biggest effect on us last year, the EPO.  Anybody heard anything about if it's progged to be negative or positive?  The big negative EPO kept us in the game last year even though no other index seemed to be on our side.  I'm assuming it's somewhat related to the PDO but not sure....which I guess is supposed to be positive this year and good for us. 

[Kory]

Yeah with everything looking so favorable, you almost expect mother nature to pull a SIKE! on us just to see us squirm (sike yo mind yo ball head shine).

One thing I haven't heard much about though is the thing that had the biggest effect on us last year, the EPO. Anybody heard anything about if it's progged to be negative or positive? The big negative EPO kept us in the game last year even though no other index seemed to be on our side. I'm assuming it's somewhat related to the PDO but not sure....which I guess is supposed to be positive this year and good for us.

The EPO isn't related to PDO that I know of. The EPO has actually been quite negative for the early part of October. More so than last year. I believe that EPO really tanked toward the early and middle of November of 2013. We shall see if it tanks again. It's indices have risen some as we've progressed through October.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I would think it would be rare to have a wall to wall +PNA and an entire winter with no GOA vortex or troughing up there.  In fact, I would be very surprised if we didn't see some rather unfavorable periods throughout the winter.  If the Pacific firehose gets cranking, even a strong -NAO wouldn't help a lot with regard to wintry weather.  Instead of warm rain, we'd get cool rain.  But I'm not seeing any overwhelming evidence of a sustained, super strong Pac jet.  So, if we can avoid that, along with avoiding a raging +AO, we should have plenty of opportunities for cold blasts.  And if the STJ is rolling, then we'll have some decent wintery weather threats too.

 

I'm not sure there will ever be any situations where anyone from the mid-Atlantic or SE could go into the winter without having at least a few concerns.  But on my list of years with pre-winter concerns, this has to be one of the years with the fewest.  So, when it's all said and done, this winter could certainly turn out to be a warm and terrible winter, but so far, as of today, there is nothing that looks really bad to me. 

So, you're saying this winter could be as bad as 2011-12 ?

[LithiaWx]

So, you're saying this winter could be as bad as 2011-12 ?

 

Yes, he is.

[WSNC]

Yeah with everything looking so favorable, you almost expect mother nature to pull a SIKE! on us just to see us squirm (sike yo mind yo ball head shine). 

 

One thing I haven't heard much about though is the thing that had the biggest effect on us last year, the EPO.  Anybody heard anything about if it's progged to be negative or positive?  The big negative EPO kept us in the game last year even though no other index seemed to be on our side.  I'm assuming it's somewhat related to the PDO but not sure....which I guess is supposed to be positive this year and good for us. 

 

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-201415.pdf

 

Here's a well written, but long, winter forecast that goes over most of the key oscillations.  Generally a positive PDO coincides with a negative EPO.  

[Cold Rain]

Yes, he is.

 

Yes.  Snowstorm should know by now that this winter is going to suck.  Front to back up and down suck.  Suck suck suck.

 

If you're wanting this winter to suck

Then you, my friend, are in luck.

It's going to be warm and the hot sun will shine.

And predictions of snow have become asinine.

 

Siberian snow records fall

But that doesn't matter at all.

The NAO hates you, the EPO too.

Your dreams of snow crushed by the PDO screw.

 

So put all your snow toys away

And head out to the lake for a day

And feel the warm breeze while the sun makes you sneeze

Since your vision of snow was only a tease.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Yes.  Snowstorm should know by now that this winter is going to suck.  Front to back up and down suck.  Suck suck suck.

 

If you're wanting this winter to suck

Then you, my friend, are in luck.

It's going to be warm and the hot sun will shine.

And predictions of snow have become asinine.

 

Siberian snow records fall

But that doesn't matter at all.

The NAO hates you, the EPO too.

Your dreams of snow crushed by the PDO screw.

 

So put all your snow toys away

And head out to the lake for a day

And feel the warm breeze while the sun makes you sneeze

Since your vision of snow was only a tease.

I'm very impressed. Did you write that ? If so you should be a poet.

[jshetley]

My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC.  Little to no snow, cool and wet.

 

Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities.

I would take wet and warm, or cold and wet in a heartbeat. I absolutely do not want cold and dry.

[valkhorn]

1) There's clearly a lot of trolling going on in this here thread.

2) For much of the SE, keep in mind that above average snowfall has in the past been met with just one major storm in many cases. In Atlanta, one major snowstorm means ~200% or more of normal total snow, which is only 2" at 100% normal.  The best track by far for many in the inland SE (for SN not ZR) is a Miller A coming across south GA or N/C FL. In a big winter, there often is only one really big one for the SE. Even in a big winter, there often is no more than 5-10% of total precip. that is wintry. This is not the NE US where the general storm track is crucial to allow for multiple big hits to have a big winter. Up there a far larger % of total precip. is wintry...duh..probably 25-50% in many cases.

 3) IF the main storm track were something other than Miller A but the SE got a great hit from ONE Miller A, much of the SE would still likely do quite well for the season. Rarely is the main storm track Miller A. At best, it may be one of several prominent storm tracks.

 

 

I pointed out 2) earlier (several pages ago) and got buried.

 

It would make no sense to take an average NO or OI or whatever signal you want over a whole season as an analog because that changes, and often an average can be slightly warmer than usual for most of the winter with a few cold snaps, or a winter could be below average with few deep freezes like we saw last winter.

 

In short, the averages tell us nothing about a particular outlier or storm that may or may not happen. The biggies in the SE that buck the trends (and what everyone is looking for) usually are outliers anyway and happened not because the entire season was favorable but because a few days out of 3 months was favorable.

 

Plus you can't just take raw averages of whatever index you want and average them together so that each year has equal weight, or take averages from N cities for comparison because they are not equidistant from each other. To get a true analog for each year you need more than raw averages. You have to weight them according to signal strength, and sometimes adjust for distribution. Sometimes outliers have to be removed or ignored since they can be considered noise.

 

This sort of number calculus was somewhat perfected by Nate Silver in the 2008 and 2012 elections, and he was the only person to nail each election because he understood statistics and how to use them to make an accurate prediction.

 

That's the only way I can see to remove the rampant cold bias that always happens every time we have these threads predicting the winter. But, the math is hard, and the calculus is tough and not a whole lot of people will want to go the extra mile for accuracy.