BxEngine Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Yea it started becoming wrong as it got closer in, which is pretty bad. Check out its winter forecast from July: Maybe they should just try not running it as often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Maybe they should just try not running it as often I think these forecasts are just fun to look at but not to be taken seriously. It's just too much of a crapshoot doing long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I don't know everyone is calling for a cold snowy winter but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the opposite. The solar spike isnt a good sign, isn't that partly why 2001-2002 turned out so warm? We all believed last years hurricane season would be very active yet it was one of the quietest on record so I'm cringing at all these cold, snowy forecasts. Also weeklies are warm and October is probably going to be above normal along with September so surely that can't be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 As I've suggested in replies to Mid-Atlantic posts you've made, I feel you've been overestimating how much the warmer global baseline is influencing things. The globe is only ~2 degrees F warmer than it was 100+ years ago and only a fraction of that on average over the last decade or so. Yeah but the climate doesn't respond linearly and the areas which are impacted will shift from year to year. Eastern Europe was like how we were in 11-12, last winter. Mabye a bad analogy but you can hopefully grasp what I am getting at. Small shifts lead to big time differences downstream. It's a game of timing and where you find yourself in regards to the meridional jet. According to the CFS, it would appear the overall 850mb boundary has shifted towards the poles, making it even harder to enter into real-deal cold. 50% or more of the recent global heating is not occuring on the surface, rather in isolated regions of the global ocean. We will either see immediate effects or there will be a temporal lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Did the climate change subforum close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Yeah but the climate doesn't respond linearly and the areas which are impacted will shift from year to year. Eastern Europe was like how we were in 11-12, last winter. Mabye a bad analogy but you can hopefully grasp what I am getting at. Small shifts lead to big time differences downstream. Not really sure of the point you're attempting to make here. There are certain reasons, traceable to global oscillations that promoted the differences in winter patterns b/t Europe and the CONUS during the past few winters. If you're trying to attribute a rising baseline to the winter patterns seen here in 11-12 and Europe last winter, that's not a correct conclusion to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Did the climate change subforum close? We made him stop with the cc crap in the ma forum so he's on the road. Seasonal models cause more harm then good in the hands of hobbyists. Cfsv2 is decent for temps the following month once we hit mid month. That's about all I can figure out. Euro weeklies are decent with h5 patterns. I like the height patterns on the seasonals that have them. I can draw my own temp conclusions from those plots. Sometimes too much info is a bad thing and clouds the discussions instead of helping. We all know what key long wave features deliver opportunity. I just focus on those areas and not worry a lick about long lead temp forecasts. We really never know how winter is going to start until we get a bead on nov's progression and dominant features. All we can do at this lead is hedge. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 So, you think there is not even 1% of truth to it? Do you agree that at some point it will happen? If so, we can both end this here. I am not 'on the road', just interpreting what I believe the CFS is showing. If anything, CFS should only be posted in the climate forum if your logic holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 So, you think there is not even 1% of truth to it? Do you agree that at some point it will happen? If so, we can both end this here. I am not 'on the road', just interpreting what I believe the CFS is showing. If anything, CFS should only be posted in the climate forum if your logic holds. I don't discuss anything related to my personal interpretation and opinions irt to cc in a regional winter thread. It derails the discussion every single time. Your bias is so heavy that you always bring it up wherever you post. It's just not appropriate.I wouldn't care if we never discussed the cfs anywhere on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/winter-arrives-early-in-alaska-snow-for-all-canadian-provinces/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/winter-arrives-early-in-alaska-snow-for-all-canadian-provinces/ what does this have to do with winter 2014/2015 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 what does this have to do with winter 2014/2015 ? As per D T. SNOW COVER IS SOME WHAT MISUNDERSTOOD 1. Having early season snowfall over Eurasia and far northern Canada FAVORS central & eastern US will see either Normal winter or a colder / snowy 2. But it does not guarantee it 3. Moreover there have plenty of cases of having near Normal snowfall over these areas and MILD / Below Normal snowfall over central and eastern Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 What DT is referring to is steady gains below 60n during Oct in both Eurasia and Canada. Compare today's progress with Oct 1st to see its on par to what he, saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 All I see is weeklies torching us for the rest of the month. Things do look to be a lot more active but how long will this CONUS torch last, November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 According to this MEI ranks chart El Nino weakened in August and September to just below El Nino levels - which raises the possibility the Enso this coming winter might be in the Neutral Zone similar to last winter http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Heard that the Euro Monthlies show a great winter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Heard that the Euro Monthlies show a great winter pattern According to DT's FB page, the Euro seasonal forecast that came out today is showing a mild November, normal December, colder/snowier January & February with big storms possible for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 According to DT's FB page, the Euro seasonal forecast that came out today is showing a mild November, normal December, colder/snowier January & February with big storms possible for the northeast. Nothing wrong with mild fall weather,since we don't get snow anyway in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 September Snow Cover Was Highest On Record In North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 September Snow Cover Was Highest On Record In North America Does that really have any legitimate bearing on what this winter holds? i know it may hell in the transporting of colder air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Does that really have any legitimate bearing on what this winter holds? i know it may hell in the transporting of colder air Legitimate ? Hmm. As per D T somewhat. Nothing is ever a guarantee . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Legitimate ? Hmm. As per D T somewhat. Nothing is ever a guarantee . It certainly helps IMO. We really wont know what type of winter we'll be looking at from december-january till end of this month, early november. I know we have the EPO on our side and a possible weak el nino. Last winter although we never got that "big one" certainly set the bar fairly high with cumulative snowfall across our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It certainly helps IMO. We really wont know what type of winter we'll be looking at from december-january till end of this month, early november. I know we have the EPO on our side and a possible weak el nino. Last winter although we never got that "big one" certainly set the bar fairly high with cumulative snowfall across our region The EPO is currently +++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 EPAWA Weather http://epawaweather.com/2014/10/a-look-at-winter-2014-2015-part-2-climate-models/ I will take this in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 EPAWA Weather http://epawaweather.com/2014/10/a-look-at-winter-2014-2015-part-2-climate-models/ I will take this in a heartbeat I see they busted pretty bad with their July Aug. forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I see they busted pretty bad with their July Aug. forecast. Aren't the CFS monthlies even more above normal on the 500mb pattern than indicated a month ago for the winter season as a whole? Looks like the center of the country will be toasting marshmellows and not tossing snowballs to me. The rest of the country gets some above normal bleed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 that forecast is complete nonsense IMO - first of all no indication December is going to be above normal for temp and precip - secondly too early to get into the specifics regarding temps and precip yet A warm November is usually a cut and dry signal for average or below average winter in terms of snowfall. Something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 A warm November is usually a cut and dry signal for average or below average winter in terms of snowfall. Something to watch for. really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 A warm November is usually a cut and dry signal for average or below average winter in terms of snowfall. Something to watch for. I would suggest you do a little research before you make blanket statements - look at Uncle W's analog map above and look at the past weather average temps for november and snowfall for the winter in the links below - many warmer then average Novembers that had above average snowfall to follow in the winter months that season http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I have to add, locally, not for KLGA or what not. Since this region cannot receive snowfall with above normal temps. I see you mixed a few big years in there, assuming it was not cherry-picked. All of the warm Novembers were garbage here except 09-10. This implies anomalous blocking is overwhleming the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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