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Hurricane Arthur


Brick Tamland

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When they say it will run parrallel to the coast, it makes it sound like they think it won't come on land at the OBX at all, but stay just off shore.

 

Right but WRAL is going to parrot the NHC and the NHC hasn't moved their track yet but IF the next GFS runs west or keeps the last track and you add the Euros west shift you can expect the NHC to shift west at 5 and then WRAL will change their message as well.

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Right but WRAL is going to parrot the NHC and the NHC hasn't moved their track yet but IF the next GFS runs west or keeps the last track and you add the Euros west shift you can expect the NHC to shift west at 5 and then WRAL will change their message as well.

 

OK. I thought yesterday the track had it coming on at Hatteras. I guess it went a little east and looks like it might go back west again now. Is that correct?

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Sucks for the folks out there but Hatteras north needs to get off, hopefully it misses east and they can get back on the islands quickly.

 

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.  Too close for comfort right now.  Cape Hatteras National Seashore is an awesome and unique place, but it's not where you want to be when the water is rising.

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Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.  Too close for comfort right now.  Cape Hatteras National Seashore is an awesome and unique place, but it's not where you want to be when the water is rising.

 

Can you imagine trying to drive up Hwy 12 from Hatteras to Nags Head in bumper to bumper traffic at night cause that's what they are going to have since they waited till tonight to do it......luckily they have all day tomorrow as well they need everyone out by dark tomorrow.

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This storm will likely be increasing in speed as it approaches and a shift far enough to the west to put anyone outside of the outer banks in a position to experience hurricane force winds seems unlikely imo.  Also the lack of strengthening today is a great sign if you like to route for storms to not cause much damage.  JMO, I'm sure many will disagree but the idea of evacuations of large areas seems like a more costly mistake than allowing people to make their own decisions.  You can't fix stupid and if someone (tourist) or not decides to go surfing during double red flag conditions they deserve whatever fate they fall into.  There is still a big chance that this will miss everyone.  Again JMO but I think that the stupidity of a few shouldn't ruin the vacations of millions in a cost that would run into the billions in lost revenue.  This is going to be a Cat 2 at best.  The only areas that should be evacuated would be areas that would flood from the surge.

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This storm will likely be increasing in speed as it approaches and a shift far enough to the west to put anyone outside of the outer banks in a position to experience hurricane force winds seems unlikely imo.  Also the lack of strengthening today is a great sign if you like to route for storms to not cause much damage.  JMO, I'm sure many will disagree but the idea of evacuations of large areas seems like a more costly mistake than allowing people to make their own decisions.  You can't fix stupid and if someone (tourist) or not decides to go surfing during double red flag conditions they deserve whatever fate they fall into.  There is still a big chance that this will miss everyone.  Again JMO but I think that the stupidity of a few should ruin the vacations of millions in a cost that would run into the billions in lost revenue.  This is going to be a Cat 2 at best.  The only areas that should be evacuated would be areas that would flood from the surge.

 

That's basically the entire OBX though and the only main road that allows people to move around the island will get covered by sand in some places and washed out in others. Then those people are cut off from stuff like emergency services etc....if someone has a heart attack, accident  etc there is no way to get them to the hospitals etc these are all things that have to be taken into account. Then there would be no power for days in some areas.....Add a nighttime hit into the mix and its just stupid to leave 10's of thousands of folks who are not storm savvy on the island.

 

This is Rodanthe after Irene a Cat 1 keep in mind once this happens everyone south of there is STUCK with no way off the island but the ferry assuming the area you are in isn't also blocked to the south by overwash

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0VGHDowalw

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y__QS3Ne0Ak

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71UwFbvRh24

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This storm will likely be increasing in speed as it approaches and a shift far enough to the west to put anyone outside of the outer banks in a position to experience hurricane force winds seems unlikely imo.  Also the lack of strengthening today is a great sign if you like to route for storms to not cause much damage.  JMO, I'm sure many will disagree but the idea of evacuations of large areas seems like a more costly mistake than allowing people to make their own decisions.  You can't fix stupid and if someone (tourist) or not decides to go surfing during double red flag conditions they deserve whatever fate they fall into.  There is still a big chance that this will miss everyone.  Again JMO but I think that the stupidity of a few shouldn't ruin the vacations of millions in a cost that would run into the billions in lost revenue.  This is going to be a Cat 2 at best.  The only areas that should be evacuated would be areas that would flood from the surge.

I agree 100%. The decision to issue a Hurricane Warning (even though the models haven't shifted one iota west and the NHC track is still offshore of Hatteras) is in my opinion shortsighted. The system has generally been east of the models in the first 24-36 hours, and as it accelerates the strongest winds will be SE of the center. A track west of the OBX is the only way the NC coast will see anything stronger than TS winds. Plus the small size of the wind field means less of a concern with surge/overwash.

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This storm will likely be increasing in speed as it approaches and a shift far enough to the west to put anyone outside of the outer banks in a position to experience hurricane force winds seems unlikely imo.  Also the lack of strengthening today is a great sign if you like to route for storms to not cause much damage.  JMO, I'm sure many will disagree but the idea of evacuations of large areas seems like a more costly mistake than allowing people to make their own decisions.  You can't fix stupid and if someone (tourist) or not decides to go surfing during double red flag conditions they deserve whatever fate they fall into.  There is still a big chance that this will miss everyone.  Again JMO but I think that the stupidity of a few shouldn't ruin the vacations of millions in a cost that would run into the billions in lost revenue.  This is going to be a Cat 2 at best.  The only areas that should be evacuated would be areas that would flood from the surge.

 

So when highway 12 washes out and 10,000+ tourist are stranded out on the OBX because they didn't evacuate, will you still say it was just merely a Cat 2?

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I agree 100%. The decision to issue a Hurricane Warning (even though the models haven't shifted one iota west and the NHC track is still offshore of Hatteras) is in my opinion shortsighted. The system has generally been east of the models in the first 24-36 hours, and as it accelerates the strongest winds will be SE of the center. A track west of the OBX is the only way the NC coast will see anything stronger than TS winds. Plus the small size of the wind field means less of a concern with surge/overwash.

I guess this explains why the warning was issued...

 Globalmodels, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclonesignificantly, and also expand the wind field as the center movesnear the North Carolina coast.Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropicalridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve andmove northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embeddedwithin the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of theguidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the officialforecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core ofArthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This promptedthe issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.
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I guess this explains why the warning was issued...

 Globalmodels, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclonesignificantly, and also expand the wind field as the center movesnear the North Carolina coast.Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropicalridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve andmove northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embeddedwithin the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of theguidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the officialforecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core ofArthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This promptedthe issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.

 

But Ground Scouring has assured us it hasn't shifted west one iota and obviously the OBX wont experience any real winds or anything from a barely hurricane anyways so stop being silly. There is no way this thing could possibly shift west and be stronger than the NHC currently is forecasting so those thousands of people are in no real danger.

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So when highway 12 washes out and 10,000+ tourist are stranded out on the OBX because they didn't evacuate, will you still say it was just merely a Cat 2?

I like how some people think a category 2 hurricane is just a normal everyday occurrence on the 4th of July. Also I'm glad people can see into the future to know that all hurricane force winds will stay offshore, and that it will only be a Cat 2. We might wake up to a category 3 or 4 that is further west than expected. Intensity forecast suck period.
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I like how some people think a category 2 hurricane is just a normal everyday occurrence on the 4th of July. Also I'm glad people can see into the future to know that all hurricane force winds will stay offshore, and that it will only be a Cat 2. We might wake up to a category 3 or 4 that is further west than expected. Intensity forecast suck period.

I will never forget hurricane Bertha when I was still living on the coast.  We went to bed that night with a weakening category 1 with 80mph winds and a forecast that called for it to either maintain or weaken further.  The next morning we wake up and the winds are 100mph.  At (iirc) the 11am advisory the winds were up to 110mph.  Thankfully that's where it peaked but it was not a fun experience to make preparations for a strong TS/minimal hurricane only to be facing what was basically a major hurricane 12 hours later.

 

Also, if anyone thinks intensity forecasting is much better now than it was 18 years ago, it isn't.  Thankfully track forecasts are.

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But Ground Scouring has assured us it hasn't shifted west one iota and obviously the OBX wont experience any real winds or anything from a barely hurricane anyways so stop being silly. There is no way this thing could possibly shift west and be stronger than the NHC currently is forecasting so those thousands of people are in no real danger.

 

I'm not going to get into a debate other than to say that having lived in Kill Devil Hills for 32 years, a lesser Nor'easter can cause quite a disruption, even in the dead of winter.

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I'm not going to get into a debate other than to say that having lived in Kill Devil Hills for 32 years, a lesser Nor'easter can cause quite a disruption, even in the dead of winter.

 

I believe downeastnc was typing in sarcasm font, Solak.  I will admit that it is sometimes hard to ascertain sarcasm on a message board without the benefit of tone, though.

 

Edit:  I see below that I misunderstood the target of your post, Solak.  My apologies.  :)

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I'll say this... Hurricane Irene was a weak cat 1 and I was attending ECU at the time it hit and we were out of classes 3 days because of the surprising amount of trees the storm took down, the path and intensity of this, followed by peak tourist season makes this a very dangerous situation with Arthur.

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18z gfs is 30 miles west of previous runs.  Can we stop trusting this model?  I think anyone who was hugging a GFS solution just lost their hope.  Not wishing for a hurricane but none of us can stop it, we can only bicker over its becoming. 

The GFS is just broken at this point.  I don't know what they did to it but the last couple years it hasn't been very useful for much of anything.  The Euro had this storm 2 days before the GFS even showed it developing.  

 

Arthur is having a very good afternoon.  Consistent pressure drops and the winds have increased rather substantially in the SE quadrant relative to the first pass by the HHs 3 hours ago.  

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Although I'm using Arthur as an example, it can apply to tropical systems in general. My opinion on the whole evacuation issue is if you know there's an area of your state where the main mean of transportation is by boat/ferry and you know there's a threat of a Cat. 1 hurricane, I think it would be in the best interest to at the very least issue voluntary evacuations. Within the next 12 hrs, if it's becoming apparent the forecast in terms of strength and track is more ominous than predicted, upgrade to mandatory. If those residents/tourists choose stay after that then you know what? Sad day for them, they made a choice and they have to deal with the consequences afterwards regardless of what they may be.

 

In general when it comes to hurricanes whether it's a Cat 1 or up to a 5, I feel like some people think or believe that if they stay, they can save and protect their property which is foolish to even entertain the idea. If your property is obliterated into a thousand pieces, you being there isn't going to change the outcome. I agree with Marietta that you can't fix stupid, but I've finally come to the realization that you can't really fix stubbornness and sometimes complacency either. Some people have to learn the hard way.

 

EDIT: Given some of the RECON data coming in, I would be surprised if Arthur isn't upgraded to at least a minimum cat 1 (75mph) hurricane status at 8pm tonight.

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The GFS is just broken at this point. I don't know what they did to it but the last couple years it hasn't been very useful for much of anything. The Euro had this storm 2 days before the GFS even showed it developing.

Arthur is having a very good afternoon. Consistent pressure drops and the winds have increased rather substantially in the SE quadrant relative to the first pass by the HHs 3 hours ago.

Euro gets a big win for this system. It started showing development off the SE coast at 192 hours. It first showed up on June 21st. Then it was the only model to significantly intensify this storm and all the others followed. The GFS completely sucks. I lost all hope for it when it was developing a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean for three weeks.
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