Atomixwx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Where would one recommend a swim during one of these things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Where would one recommend a swim during one of these things? Indoor pool would work best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Go to sleep! When you wake up, it will have a name! Psshtt I doubt it. Looks to me like the COC is racing NW away from the convection in the last few images unless my eyes are playing tricks. Hvward what do you see? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/swir-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Psshtt I doubt it. Looks to me like the COC is racing NW away from the convection in the last few images unless my eyes are playing tricks. Hvward what do you see? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/swir-animated.gif I'm nearly due west and on the coast of this right now and it's a pretty big meh. Western side issues of a struggling TC embryo look to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Indoor pool would work best. I swam in hurricane Glady's in 1968. I was in the army and several of us went to Virginia Beach. It was awesome. Ocean was solid white. My buddy got slammed on the bottom dislocating his shoulder and breaking two ribs. When he couldn't report for duty on Monday the army, in its infinite wisdom, gave him an Article 15 for misuse of government property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Psshtt I doubt it. Looks to me like the COC is racing NW away from the convection in the last few images unless my eyes are playing tricks. Hvward what do you see? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/swir-animated.gif Yeah we will have to see if that convection backs and closes off or if the dry air inhibits this. Oh the joy of tracking hurricanes. I swam in hurricane Glady's in 1968. I was in the army and several of us went to Virginia Beach. It was awesome. Ocean was solid white. My buddy got slammed on the bottom dislocating his shoulder and breaking two ribs. When he couldn't report for duty on Monday the army, in its infinite wisdom, gave him an Article 15 for misuse of government property. Haha awesome story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yeah we will have to see if that convection backs and closes off or if the dry air inhibits this. Oh the joy of tracking hurricanes. Haha awesome story! It was one of he dumbest things I've ever done and one of the most fun. I didn't come out unscathed. I looked like I had tangled with every alley cat in Norfolk. That sand hurt. I could hardly bend my arms and legs, but I managed to report for duty and avoided the colonel's wrath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Lolxz. NHC must have seen something else. Unless a new COC is forming near the deep convection. Sent from my N9810 using Xparent BlueTapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Lolxz. NHC must have seen something else. Unless a new COC is forming near the deep convection. Sent from my N9810 using Xparent BlueTapatalk 2 I'm lolling right with you as a member in Port St. Lucie. Even our mod is telling stories that happened 46 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I'm lolling right with you as a member in Port St. Lucie. Even our mod is telling stories that happened 46 years ago.What are the winds like in your area? 1mph? 2mph? Have you boarded up your windows? Do you have your hurricane kit ready? Lol the eyewall is right offshore from you. Now when I look at radar it looks like there are multiple centers. I think the one in the deepest convection may become the dominant one and that is when we will start to see some more substantial intensification once we have one real consolidated center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 What are the winds like in your area? 1mph? 2mph? Have you boarded up your windows? Do you have your hurricane kit ready? Lol the eyeball is right offshore from you. Now when I look at radar it looks like there are multiple centers. I think the one in the deepest convection may become the dominant one and that is when we will start to see some more substantial intensification once we have one real consolidated center. Actually partly cloudy and as still as night can be! It is always surreal to be so close yet so far from a TC that could possibly be in real genesis mode. We shall se in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 What are the winds like in your area? 1mph? 2mph? Have you boarded up your windows? Do you have your hurricane kit ready? Lol the eyewall is right offshore from you. Now when I look at radar it looks like there are multiple centers. I think the one in the deepest convection may become the dominant one and that is when we will start to see some more substantial intensification once we have one real consolidated center. You better get ready. If that thing hits Waycross, it could cause hundreds of dollars of improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You better get ready. If that thing hits Waycross, it could cause hundreds of dollars of improvements. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 6z GFS looks to be getting the idea. Has 60+ mph winds off the coast of NC Friday AM. On trend loop from the past 4 runs, the wind profile looks to have really increased. Hurricane Center Cone 5am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like we have some heavy smokers in South Carolina based on the large smoke rings showing up in weather.gov's hi-res radar loop. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You better get ready. If that thing hits Waycross, it could cause hundreds of dollars of improvements. One empty bag of nothing on the Treasure Coast this morning. One spaghetti noodle thin band will cruise by in about a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The current forecast track is the one most folks along the coast are hoping for ( or even east of that ), anything west of there would be a disaster for NC beaches on one of the biggest weekends of the year for businesses etc...Even a fast moving Cat 1 would create a bunch of issues and Hwy 12 is sure to over wash in several locations stranding people all up and down the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 So, the track was more west, and then it moved back more east. Any chance it could move back west again, or further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We're staying in Waves on the Outerbanks this week. Keeping a close eye on Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 So, the track was more west, and then it moved back more east. Any chance it could move back west again, or further east? Really? You know better to ask that or you should. The current track will most likely be wrong to some degree east or west but its impossible to tell at this time which. The thing about a track like this is if the turn flattens out even for a few hrs it can make a huge difference between wide right to running right into Swansboro. There is a pretty good consensus on the overall track but 100 miles either side of the current track is very much in the game right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 So, the track was more west, and then it moved back more east. Any chance it could move back west again, or further east? It will probably remain offshore, Brick. This was not really ever much of a threat to go inland, regardless of what the models were showing. The incoming trough is quite strong and will deflect the system east. The beaches should be fine this weekend. Hopefully, the front will bring us a few raindrops, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We're staying in Waves on the Outerbanks this week. Keeping a close eye on Arthur. I would stay out of the waves; and let's hope Arthur doesn't put his eye on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 I wonder if there's any chance of severe weather from the system once it gets closer. I notice storms in my local forecast for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Our storms (if we get any) will be from the cold front, not the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I wonder if there's any chance of severe weather from the system once it gets closer. I notice storms in my local forecast for Thursday. I'm hearing that most of the rain will be east of I-95 and amounts may be around a couple of inches. It's still a bit early to make any firm predictions, but the piedmont may not see much from soon-to-be Arthur. Our rain may be from the typical summer convective storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I wonder if there's any chance of severe weather from the system once it gets closer. I notice storms in my local forecast for Thursday.The only members in the SE that will be impacted are AFJO62, downeastnc?, and smog stranger, and others I believe. The storms in your forecast are from the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Now TS Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I would stay out of the waves; and let's hope Arthur doesn't put his eye on you. This picture will look pretty different in 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Thanks for the chase help last night, guys. Definitely still considering it, but I'd like to see it shift west some. If it takes the forecast track now, only the Outer Banks would really get in on the wind action. Alex 2004 is looking like a good analog, given its forecast track and increased organization today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Here's a link to some webcams on the OBX. http://www.obxcams.com/ Here's another one in Kill Devil Hills that gives a great view down the beach. http://visitob.com/webcams/sea-ranch-kill-devil-hills/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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