CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Does he work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Does he work?not with WTNH anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 not with WTNH anymore. All I see is him all over the country...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 All I see is him all over the country...lol.yep storm chasing life, great job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Heavy, heavy on the CID doorstep attm. BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER N CENTRAL IA IS MOVING EAST AROUND 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO TRENDING E-SE. AT THE CURRENT RATE...THESE STORMS MAY REACH INDEPENDENCE AROUND 530 AM...AND IF THE COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WOULD REACH DBQ TO CID AROUND 730 AM. To think I left it all behind for months of fog and drizzle. I think Wiz would be permanently pants-less this time of year if he lived in the DVN CWA. Maybe not the best location for most severe, but basically a MCS every other day in July. Even though they're mostly heavy rainers, they still put our popcorn rumblers to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 To think I left it all behind for months of fog and drizzle. I think Wiz would be permanently pants-less this time of year if he lived in the DVN CWA. Maybe not the best location for most severe, but basically a MCS every other day in July. Even though they're mostly heavy rainers, they still put our popcorn rumblers to shame. I would love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Whose Michael Rosenberger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Weird how that line early this morning fell apart and curled up into MA; although my yard has a some leaves down as possible part of gust front as it approached?? Not a drop of rain I'm in North Woodstock tonight (have a wedding to go to in West Hartford tomorrow) and I'm surprised at how dry it is. Cut the lawn here at the family's camp, and it was like a dust bowl whenever the mower got within 15ft of the dirt road. A big difference from up home in Stowe where the lawn is sort of soggy in spots from 3" of rain in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 I'm in North Woodstock tonight (have a wedding to go to in West Hartford tomorrow) and I'm surprised at how dry it is. Cut the lawn here at the family's camp, and it was like a dust bowl whenever the mower got within 15ft of the dirt road. A big difference from up home in Stowe where the lawn is sort of soggy in spots from 3" of rain in the past week. Welcome to the real New England!Been pretty dry here lately, thunderstorms have there been not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 I'm in North Woodstock tonight (have a wedding to go to in West Hartford tomorrow) and I'm surprised at how dry it is. Cut the lawn here at the family's camp, and it was like a dust bowl whenever the mower got within 15ft of the dirt road. A big difference from up home in Stowe where the lawn is sort of soggy in spots from 3" of rain in the past week. Where in West Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I'm in North Woodstock tonight (have a wedding to go to in West Hartford tomorrow) and I'm surprised at how dry it is. Cut the lawn here at the family's camp, and it was like a dust bowl whenever the mower got within 15ft of the dirt road. A big difference from up home in Stowe where the lawn is sort of soggy in spots from 3" of rain in the past week. My garden soil was still wet from this morning's rain about 15 miles south of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Where in West Hartford? Couldn't tell ya much except staying at a Marriott and the wedding is within walking distance haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Couldn't tell ya much except staying at a Marriott and the wedding is within walking distance haha. That's right near Westfarms mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 My garden soil was still wet from this morning's rain about 15 miles south of youCool. Just seemed dry up this way. Made sure to water the plants. I see ORH and BDL are running like 37% and 50% (respectably) of normal-to-date precipitation in June so far.Of course that can be made up quickly this time of year...within hours in the right set up. It is a beautiful evening though in CT...just awesome weather. No humidity and comfy temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Doesn't look like anything too big but maybe a shot at some convection mid-week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Doesn't look like anything too big but maybe a shot at some convection mid-week next week. SPC MARS not so excited anymore. Maybe some sneaky boomers Sunday though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 SPC MARS not so excited anymore. Maybe some sneaky boomers Sunday though? 2014-06-20_12-44-38.png Interesting. Looks like a s/w moving through but pretty poor instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Interesting. Looks like a s/w moving through but pretty poor instability. Yeah, I'm not holding my breath. Just because a few parameters correlate to past events doesn't mean storms will pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Have seen a few operational model types flagging mid week, this next week... Euro has a 24 hour heat pulse that's cut by a "dent" in the isopleths and what appears to be subsequent drying, so there could be something interesting across that transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 I guess we could see a few bangers possible Wednesday depending on how much instability we see. Would probably be more garden variety stuff though...really not all that much shear to work with...may have some decent convergence though which could aid in the development at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/NE/gfsNE_sfc_prec_114.gif What is that you say, GFS? You taunt us with a nasty looking squall line/MCS for next Wednesday? Please, please don't be model silliness. Sunny days give me nothing to do. Proud to be an american weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/NE/gfsNE_sfc_prec_114.gif What is that you say, GFS? You taunt us with a nasty looking squall line/MCS for next Wednesday? Please, please don't be model silliness. Sunny days give me nothing to do. Proud to be an american weenie. Skinny CAPE profile. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Skinny CAPE profile. Yawn. If there was more shear I might be a little more excited for maybe a microburst somewhere as a core collapsed but shear is pretty meh. Only thing really that will help with any development is some decent convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Lapse rates are horrible on Wednesday but the GFS develops some decent instability, thanks to sfc dews which look to be right around 70F (could be overdone)...shear is pretty meh...still some decent convergence though. Looks like we'll see some showers and t'storms along the front...shouldn't be anything major but if the instability pans out could maybe see a strong storm or two around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 Wednesday should be interesting...not necessarily talking interesting as in severe potential but looks like enough ingredients will come together for widespread showers and thunderstorms...both NAM/GFS do generate some decent capes, however, thanks to some pretty high dews...lapse rates suck but if those instability values do verify there definitely would be a few strong to marginally severe cells around...mainly posing a wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Wednesday should be interesting...not necessarily talking interesting as in severe potential but looks like enough ingredients will come together for widespread showers and thunderstorms...both NAM/GFS do generate some decent capes, however, thanks to some pretty high dews...lapse rates suck but if those instability values do verify there definitely would be a few strong to marginally severe cells around...mainly posing a wind threat. I don't need SVR necessarily.....I'm happy with the light show and ear drum splitting thunder...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Could be a heavy rain threat late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slow moving front and right entrance region of jet which usually favors heavy rain. Winds aloft are borderline for severe if we can get instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Could be a heavy rain threat late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slow moving front and right entrance region of jet which usually favors heavy rain. Winds aloft are borderline for severe if we can get instability. GFS says 2.05" PWATs over ALY Wed night. That's just a hair above the 99th percentile (over 2 SD). Not sure I'm buying the widespread 2" QPF in 6 hours like it shows however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 GFS says 2.05" PWATs over ALY Wed night. That's just a hair above the 99th percentile (over 2 SD). Not sure I'm buying the widespread 2" QPF in 6 hours like it shows however. Even the euro kind of had a heavy rain look, although I didn't look too deeply. I guess just a matter of where the front stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Even the euro kind of had a heavy rain look, although I didn't look too deeply. I guess just a matter of where the front stalls. There is a nice signal there, I'm leaning more towards the localized side of things though. I guess it's possible the GFS is right and our northern half of the area gets 3-5". At least that might mean a few FFWs. Two short-fused warnings (SVR, FFW, TOR, SMW) all year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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