snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Parts of Missouri are in a day 6 highlighted area with SPC mentioning strong tornadoes being possible. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014VALID 251200Z - 301200Z...DISCUSSION......SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVERTHE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLYFLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCKOVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONEINTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THISAIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MOTHIS WEEKEND.STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CORIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THEPLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOWSUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHEREPW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBTHROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATESTTHINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERNPLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KSSATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMICENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLYSIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOESCAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRNTX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERNKS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRNPLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLYMONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUTSUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULDPOTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE ISNOT AS HIGH...DARROW.. 04/22/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 mostly outside our sub, good discussion will be in central/western Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Severe weather is getting more and more rare it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Severe weather is getting more and more rare it seems. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 mostly outside our sub, good discussion will be in central/western If the Euro is right, parts of this subforum will be under the gun as well, the warm front gets almost to I-80 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 My son (who lives in Texas, near Dallas) was just texting me about the elevated threat for the coming weekend. Gets me to wondering when it's going to get active in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 lol ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Severe weather is getting more and more rare it seems. lol your climo sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 lol your climo sux So does his memory, because his county had a severe storm just 9 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Severe weather is getting more and more rare it seems.Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 So does his memory, because his county had a severe storm just 9 days ago. I could have sworn I seen a 1.5" of Hail, Widespread damage and power outages all across Northern Oakland just 10 days ago. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Newest 4-8 Day Outlook. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014VALID 261200Z - 011200Z...DISCUSSION.....SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THECENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MSVALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THEECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OFWRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONGSWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENSLEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENTINTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KTSHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THENEJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOTEXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARYMID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVERVALLEY.MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINESATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLYDIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENTFROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL ANDTORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY ASLOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRNKS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18ZSUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXINGACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS ARESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THEMOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OFPOTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTOTHE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OFTHE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLETN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTORCONVECTION...DARROW.. 04/23/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Severe weather is getting more and more rare it seems. It's April 23rd, not June 23rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I'm mildly interested in Monday in IL. CAPE maxes out at 1000-1500 J/kg at 18z (depending on your model of choice) but decreases closer to 0z as more rain forms. What we really need is the LLJ to push north of where it's progged now, but that's probably going to be hard to do as the 850 Low fills in with time, reducing the height gradient. But 30-35 kts isn't going to produce anything memorable. Also need to see how quickly the surface Low occludes. We may end up with the front stuck in Missouri until after daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I'm mildly interested in Monday in IL. CAPE maxes out at 1000-1500 J/kg at 18z (depending on your model of choice) but decreases closer to 0z as more rain forms. What we really need is the LLJ to push north of where it's progged now, but that's probably going to be hard to do as the 850 Low fills in with time, reducing the height gradient. But 30-35 kts isn't going to produce anything memorable. Also need to see how quickly the surface Low occludes. We may end up with the front stuck in Missouri until after daytime heating. Early Monday evening looked pretty threatening in southern IL and IN on the 12z GFS. Still showing 2k j/kg of SBCAPE uncapped and supercell composite ranging from 7-10 at 00z 4/29 near EVV. Some decent low level cape and ~35-40 kt of 0-1 km shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Early Monday evening looked pretty threatening in southern IL and IN on the 12z GFS. Still showing 2k j/kg of SBCAPE uncapped and supercell composite ranging from 7-10 at 00z 4/29 near EVV. Some decent low level cape and ~35-40 kt of 0-1 km shear. I should clarify that I'm only "mildly" interested because I'm biased into only caring about what's within range for a day chase from Valpo. I agree, west TN and west KY looks threatening, and that could include parts of IL and IN as well, but probably too far distance wise and in terrain that's too messy even if we could get to it. But we're still four days out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I should clarify that I'm only "mildly" interested because I'm biased into only caring about what's within range for a day chase from Valpo. I agree, west TN and west KY looks threatening, and that could include parts of IL and IN as well, but probably too far distance wise and in terrain that's too messy even if we could get to it. But we're still four days out as well. OT, but I really like your disclaimer. The way it's going school could be out for the summer before we see any severe up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I probably spoke too soon in my last post about severe.... "POOL OF COLD 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING...POSSIBLYPUSHING -20 C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. IF POCKET OF LIMITEDCLEARING CAN OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD ENSURE WITHPOTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION." - IWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I probably spoke too soon in my last post about severe.... "POOL OF COLD 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING...POSSIBLY PUSHING -20 C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. IF POCKET OF LIMITED CLEARING CAN OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD ENSURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION." - IWX Wasn't there a prolific hail producer (by Indiana standards) near Indy with the cutoff Low in March 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Wasn't there a prolific hail producer (by Indiana standards) near Indy with the cutoff Low in March 2012? There was a lot of hail with the March 2, 2012 storm. Was it a cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 There was a lot of hail with the March 2, 2012 storm. Was it a cutoff? Nah that was the Henryville day. I'm thinking of something later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 If the 18z GFS verifies, I suspect we'll decide that Decatur is close enough to chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 18z GFS looking pretty good for the southern half of IL late Monday. Shear profiles look increasingly good as the afternoon/evening go on with the approach of the powerful mid and upper jet. The GFS shows the warm sector relatively free of precip through early to mid afternoon, which is always nice to see. Lets hope that holds. Deep moisture will be firmly in place after the previous few days of flow off the gulf in the warm sector. Could be a pretty big day for this area and points south if trends continue. We'll be out in KS or NE on Sunday, but will definitely be chasing this setup for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 18z GFS looking pretty good for the southern half of IL late Monday. Shear profiles look increasingly good as the afternoon/evening go on with the approach of the powerful mid and upper jet. The GFS shows the warm sector relatively free of precip through early to mid afternoon, which is always nice to see. Lets hope that holds. Deep moisture will be firmly in place after the previous few days of flow off the gulf in the warm sector. Could be a pretty big day for this area and points south if trends continue. We'll be out in KS or NE on Sunday, but will definitely be chasing this setup for Monday. Agree with this based on everything I looked at last night. Solid low and deep layer shear (speed and directional) and moderate instability with minimal capping will be in place late afternoon into the early evening. Actually based off soundings I pulled from southern IL and southeast MO, Monday could be a better bet chase wise than KS or NE on Sunday because of better wind fields throughout the column and better orientation of the bulk shear vectors. Still trying decide whether to pull the trigger on a daytrip out to KS/NE/western MO Sunday, downstate IL/southeast MO on Monday or both It rarely lines up that I'm off and the threat for anything significant is outside the LOT CWA, so I'd really like to get out there and chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Tuesday is starting to look pretty potent in downstate IN as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Monday on the NAM in central/southern IL looks very interesting. Sups and tors if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Certainly expect the greater severe threat to be south of here at this point but looks like some threat locally early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The Euro has hinted at a weak surface wave developing over the MO/AR border area Monday afternoon. This helps keeps the low-levels nicely backed over southern MO and southern IL later in the day. The GFS doesn't have the secondary surface low, but the low-levels remain nicely backed over this area. The best area for tornadoes, (and there may be quite a few of them) will probably be a little south of our sub over AR/northern LA/MS, but southern MO and southern IL will be on the northern end of this potential outbreak. GFS shows a nose of 2000j/kg cape reaching up into southern MO late Mon afternoon. The GFS has consistently shown the warm sector to remain relatively precip free through at least early afternoon allowing for good destabilization. From a chasing standpoint southern MO doesn't look that great, with lots of trees and hills. I've never chased there myself, but it looks pretty crappy in that area lol. I'm hoping things trend a little further north to put central MO more in line with the higher tor threat. If things stay as they are I might just play on the IL side and hope for the best. Definitely ain't going to AR lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The Euro has hinted at a weak surface wave developing over the MO/AR border area Monday afternoon. This helps keeps the low-levels nicely backed over southern MO and southern IL later in the day. The GFS doesn't have the secondary surface low, but the low-levels remain nicely backed over this area. The best area for tornadoes, (and there may be quite a few of them) will probably be a little south of our sub over AR/northern LA/MS, but southern MO and southern IL will be on the northern end of this potential outbreak. GFS shows a nose of 2000j/kg cape reaching up into southern MO late Mon afternoon. The GFS has consistently shown the warm sector to remain relatively precip free through at least early afternoon allowing for good destabilization. From a chasing standpoint southern MO doesn't look that great, with lots of trees and hills. I've never chased there myself, but it looks pretty crappy in that area lol. I'm hoping things trend a little further north to put central MO more in line with the higher tor threat. If things stay as they are I might just play on the IL side and hope for the best. Definitely ain't going to AR lol. I thought I heard that the area around the bootheel is ok but don't quote me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I thought I heard that the area around the bootheel is ok but don't quote me on that. Yeah that area does look pretty good on closer inspection. Looks like northeast and east-central AR aren't too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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