E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

[Yellow Evan]

Simon is definitely not rapidly intensifying still. 

 

The eye has begun to fill in and lose its definition. Also, convection is starting a warming trend. 

 

I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots 

 

 

Meh, too soon to say IMO. Slight fluctuations like this is common in major hurricanes.

[Superstorm93]

Incredibly tight RMW with a estimated SLP of 949mb/49knot surface wind...

 

We'll see what the VDM says. 

 

[Superstorm93]

I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots 

 

 

 

Not bad...

 

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

 

000

WTPZ64 KNHC 041753

TCUEP4

HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014

1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE...

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115

MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT

IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR

HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

[klw]

[apm]

This thing looks perfectly gorgeous.

[tmagan]

I was looking at future E. Pacific names on the NHC website yesterday. You will not believe what the 'I' storm is in 2016.

[andyhb]

Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964).

 

Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable.

[tmagan]

Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964).

 

Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable.

I know that, but it seems so ironic.

[Juliancolton]

[Yellow Evan]

Simon is a Cat 4 now. 115 knts/946 mbar. What a season.

[tmagan]

Disturbance near 140 degrees west looks better organized and the GFS takes it in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS had this hitting Hawaii as a hurricane,

[Snow_Miser]

Tropical Depression 2C has now formed. NHC brings this very close to Hawaii Day 5 as a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

You mean CPHC? It's Ana now, BTW, though the track has shifted east. Most models have this passing a bit E of the island group.

[phil882]

Poor Trudy... nobody wants to talk about her despite an impressive radar presentation for a 40 mph tropical storm.

 

http://i.imgur.com/8zda3DC.gif

[dan88]

Poor Trudy... nobody wants to talk about her despite an impressive radar presentation for a 40 mph tropical storm.

 

 

 

Quite a shame it didn't have more time over water, from the 06z SHIPS (as these ignore land)

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    75% is   5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    67% is   7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    57% is   9.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    54% is  12.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[hurricaneman]

Trudy or may I say its remains will be a threat to the Yucatan but who knows after that and another thing to notice is this may have been a hurricane if there was some readings for Trudy as the satellite and radar images were excellent

[Yellow Evan]

Trudy reminded me a bit of both Humberto and Barbara. Too bad the NHC never upped. Are there any Dvorak estimates for a hurricane?

[HurricaneJosh]

Thought y'all might enjoy this, from my Hurricane ODILE chase—the most wild of my career aside from Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

 

After the calm eye had cleared Cabo San Lucas, just minutes into the cyclone’s backside, our hotel lobby suddenly exploded into flying glass, furniture, and wreckage. Our hotel was awesome enough to send us the surveillance video! The first shot shows my cameraman, Steve; the second shows me. You can laugh at our shocked reactions—I look like Chicken Little trying to shield my eyes from flying glass —but notice that the first thing we both do is grab our cameras—like good chaserdudes.  Each time I replay these videos, I notice cool new details: Steve’s computer blowing away, a flying chair, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle, a large door launching from the hotel entrance like a missile…

 

P.S. iCyclone’s official ODILE video is coming soon—but in the meantime, enjoy this deep-fried appetizer. 

 

[A-L-E-K]

ok, that's cool

[HurricaneJosh]

ok, that's cool

 

OK, it must be if you'd actually admit that about my work.

[The Dude]

Thought y'all might enjoy this, from my Hurricane ODILE chase—the most wild of my career aside from Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

 

After the calm eye had cleared Cabo San Lucas, just minutes into the cyclone’s backside, our hotel lobby suddenly exploded into flying glass, furniture, and wreckage. Our hotel was awesome enough to send us the surveillance video! The first shot shows my cameraman, Steve; the second shows me. You can laugh at our shocked reactions—I look like Chicken Little trying to shield my eyes from flying glass —but notice that the first thing we both do is grab our cameras—like good chaserdudes.  Each time I replay these videos, I notice cool new details: Steve’s computer blowing away, a flying chair, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle, a large door launching from the hotel entrance like a missile…

 

P.S. iCyclone’s official ODILE video is coming soon—but in the meantime, enjoy this deep-fried appetizer. 

 

 

Wow.  You can tell you were born to chase.  It took all of a second for you grab the camera and start filming.  Glad you guys made it through (relatively) unharmed.  Looking forward to the full video.

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow.  You can tell you were born to chase.  It took all of a second for you grab the camera and start filming.  Glad you guys made it through (relatively) unharmed.  Looking forward to the full video.

 

Hey, thanks, Scott!  Yeah, it was weird-- I didn't even think-- it was a reflex action to grab the cam, even though I was kinda freaked out-- so I think you're right!

 

Haven't talked with you forever. Hope all's well.

[Yellow Evan]

Well, Josh, if you're lucky (and MX is unlucky), you'll have another chase subject in 8 days. The GFS and the Euro try to span up our mandarin (93E) into a hurricane as it nears the MX coast in the 8-10 time frame. Timing very similar to the 1959 MX hurricane. which had similar SST profiles to this year.

[GaWx]

Well, Josh, if you're lucky (and MX is unlucky), you'll have another chase subject in 8 days. The GFS and the Euro try to span up our mandarin (93E) into a hurricane as it nears the MX coast in the 8-10 time frame. Timing very similar to the 1959 MX hurricane. which had similar SST profiles to this year.

Very interesting. As Josh's list as well my research for before 1950 major MX hits have shown, late Oct to very early Nov. has actually been the most concentrated period for major H hits on the Pacific side of MX. El Niño seems to increase that potential somewhat. In 2012, the GFS teased us with many runs in a row showing a classic late Oct. perpendicular hit while the Euro had nothing. It turned out to be nothing. This time, the Euro has had the threat for at least two runs. If I were Josh, I'd follow this potential threat as long as the Euro, especially, has it.

[Yellow Evan]

Very interesting. As Josh's list as well my research for before 1950 major MX hits have shown, late Oct to very early Nov. has actually been the most concentrated period for major H hits on the Pacific side of MX. El Niño seems to increase that potential somewhat. In 2012, the GFS teased us with many runs in a row showing a classic late Oct. perpendicular hit while the Euro had nothing. It turned out to be nothing. This time, the Euro has had the threat for at least two runs. If I were Josh, I'd follow this potential threat as long as the Euro, especially, has it.

 

He's been talking about on Facebook with his pals there. He doesn't think its likely since there's only been 2 November hurricane landfalls. It's best to throw out climo, and focus on what the conditions are showing. Wind shear is moderate  now but forecast to become low, and SST's are very warm. I'd give it a high likelhood at there being a MX hurricane landfall within the next tow weeks.

 

FTR, GFS develops a 975mbar hurricane near MX by day 16 as well.

[HurricaneJosh]

He's been talking about on Facebook with his pals there. He doesn't think its likely since there's only been 2 November hurricane landfalls. It's best to throw out climo, and focus on what the conditions are showing. Wind shear is moderate  now but forecast to become low, and SST's are very warm. I'd give it a high likelhood at there being a MX hurricane landfall within the next tow weeks.

 

FTR, GFS develops a 975mbar hurricane near MX by day 16 as well.

 

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

[GaWx]

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

 

Josh,

 Don't forget about these:

(though I see that two Nov. hits were noted..I'm not sure if these two Nov. 1st hits are the ones)

 

 I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'" 

 

 Recent GFS/Euro runs have suggested a threat for ~11/4-5. So, that is a little later than 11/1, but still pretty close. I'd consider climo to actually still be rather supportive for 11/4-5 since it is only a week or so later than the peak, only 3-4 days later than the two big 11/1 hits, and we're very close to being in El Nino. Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits. Fwiw, the new (12Z) Euro is not nearly as impressive as it stalls it and weakens it well offshore 11/4-5. However, the important thing at this early stage is that it still has it.

 

 By the way, we will be able to add Odile as another major EPAC H hitting MX in an oncoming El Nino season assuming we ever finally get the official Nino. The only season since 1949 with two major hits was 1976, a weak Nino fwiw.

 

EDITED

[Srain]

Nino is beginning to show its hand via the ensemble and operational guidance with a deep Western trough in the medium range. I would not be surprised to see a landfalling cyclone potential during the first week of November. In fact HGX made mention this morning of the potential and a possible heavy rainfall event from the remnants across Texas if it happens. We will see.

[Yellow Evan]

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

 

I agree 1959 was not a Cat 5 at landfall. There was a 135 knt+ wind report at Manzaillio a bit W that I don't consider reliable. The good news for you is that unlike Odile, when you had to rush to get in time, you have days to monitor it. In this part of the world, there usually is less flip flopping, and once this becomes a hurricane, the models don't change as much.

 

 

Josh,

 Don't forget about these:

(though I see that two Nov. hits were noted..I'm not sure if these two Nov. 1st hits are the ones)

 

 I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'" 

 

 Recent GFS/Euro runs have suggested a threat for ~11/4-5. So, that is a little later than 11/1, but still pretty close. I'd consider climo to actually still be rather supportive for 11/4-5 since it is only a week or so later than the peak, only 3-4 days later than the two big 11/1 hits, and we're very close to being in El Nino. Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits. Fwiw, the new (12Z) Euro is not nearly as impressive as it stalls it and weakens it well offshore 11/4-5. However, the important thing at this early stage is that it still has it.

 

He said on FB two hits since 1949. If I had to make a guess, there were Rick 97 and Tara 61. And yea, there were a few in the 1800's that were strong hits around November 1.

 

Regarding the 12z Euro, just something I've noticed with the Euro in this part of the world that it tends to show a strong hurricane for a run or two in a row, before backing off. Now if the GFS starting really backing off, I'd say the odds of this happening are diminished.