Yellow Evan

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About Yellow Evan

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  • Birthday July 13

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    EPAC hurricanes, basketball
  1. WPAC P-W doesn't necessarily apply to all WPAC storms (Megi/Haiyan for instance), but it does also apply to some ATL storms (Ike, Irene, Wilma), a few EPAC ones (Odile, Juliette, Polo) and likely most NIO storms and some SHEM storms. As I mentioned above, it arguably could apply here, and I used it as a baseline above but admitted it was too low, likely partially due to the small size of the storm. Last recon obs prior to landfall could have missed the strongest winds, though the storm had clearly weaken as the wind difference between quadrant was not that great in previous Recon passes. For the record, the 155 knt winds if correct would support around 135 knts at the surface, which given some undersampling, supports around 145 knots at landfall.
  2. The Schloemer equation from the CCXJ1 reports suggest a pressure of around 920mbar, which I've adjusted down to 918 mbar since the station was slightly inland. And I'm using a WPAC P-W relationship since the storm was born from the monsoon trough and in an area of lower than normal pressures.
  3. A blend of the estimated 918mbar pressure from the surface data and Josh's pressure data (going call it 932 mbar)'s, would support ~930 mbar at landfall. A WPAC pressure-wind relationship would support 120 knots normally, but with the steep pressure gradient (steepest he's ever seen) and the fact there may be some lag with an eye filling in but the structure being symmetrical, that'd support at least 130 knots, and maybe 140 knots, not to mention the small size of the storm.
  4. Josh, two questions. In this thread you estimated winds of 40 knots at your lowest pressure yet in your chase report, you estimated winds of 20-30 knots. Why the difference? Also, did you factor in the CCXJ1 pressure data when estimating the lowest pressure in your chase report?
  5. Reading these posts,... smh.... this storm was far from ordinary, and all signs point to the fact this was still a Cat 5 at landfall but we'll see what Josh comes up with.
  6. Not sure about that. RMW is likely larger now due to the ERC.
  7. Anyhow, Hurricane Hilda is on the verge of becoming a MH. Idk why the NHC went 90.
  8. Yes. We also have Dolores now and Enriue. Enrique has a dim future, but Dolores could become a Cat 3 or 4 in a day or two.
  9. GFS and ECMWF have been off and on about a monster near MX next week. Also has the mandarin developing,
  10. Shear is only around 15-20 knts max form the northeast. Honestly hasn't been that much of an issue yet
  11. So we have a TC outbreak looming. We have two mandarins/cherrys near 130w (where no TC has been observed in may) and the GFS and ECMWF show a MX hurricane at day 8-10
  12. We're very close to moderate threshold based on satellite data.
  13. About time to make this thread. I've never seen the EPAC more conducive. Ever. Very warm SST's and very high instability. Developing El Nino. Near record PDO. Josh probs has a few chases up his sleeve this season in Mexico. Could be a long season folks.
  14. Maysack could probs help in the WWB department.