E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

[jbenedet]

It seems Norbert would at least provide some rain for southern CA 

 

Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja....

[Yellow Evan]

Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja....

 

Models still show some mid to upper level moisture making it.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF has this at 95 knots.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it.

 

[icebreaker5221]

Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it.

 

Should be a cat 3 on the 11pm PDT advisory if it can maintain that structure. 

 

The East Pac has just been absolutely prolific this season.

[GaWx]

From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957:

No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27

Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

[Yellow Evan]

From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957:

No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27

Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

 

 

I'm not expecting a major landfall from this. But worth noting as we hit October.

[thewxmann]

Someone needs to update the subtitle... I think Norbert is well over the threshold of "almost being a hurricane"

[Quakertown needs snow]

.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This hasn't been discussed much--who thinks we'll exhaust the alphabet this year?

 

Norbert is the 14th named storm of the season. The NHC has highlighted 2 other AOIs, and the long-range GFS and ECMWF have another cyclone forming close to the coast. The MJO isn't set to arrive until the end of the month.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be surprised if we do. I don't buy that 5 day TWO lemon yet. I'm thinking it'll interact with the low to its left. I'm expecting 20-21 storms. IMO, we are more likely to set the major record (10). 1992 owns it outright currently but had 4 majors after today.

[Yellow Evan]

We now have tow lemons. The one to the W is not likely to form, but the one to the E GFS is decently aggressive with. It would not shock me if it winds up a major thanks to an approaching CCKW.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

 

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

 

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico has become better defined today.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next
few days while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

 

The GFS shows this passing very close to the southwestern Mexico coastline as a 963mb major hurricane.

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro suggests a miss of the Baja Peninsula with potential Odile. That said a robust cckw is approaching so we may see another Major develop as the weekend nears.

 

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS made the mandarin a 963mbar hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Which is now a cherry. It has perfect conditions aside from a little too much dry air. We could see a Cat 4 out of this easily.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The spectacular 2014 Pacific hurricane season continues--Invest 94E to the top right, Invest 95E to the bottom left.

 

[Srain]

TD 15E for S of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to keep development slow during the next24 to 36 hours at it drifts NNW. The current track guidance suggests a possible landfall near Cabo San Lucas later this week.

[Srain]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center.  Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB.  Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents.  In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest.  Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get.  The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore.  The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water.  The only limiting
factor could be land interaction.  The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today.  Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Ground Scouring]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

[wxmx]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

I see the GS index has become negative in the EPac as well

 

I think that the ULL from the GoM will start to fill up and will be no match to the building upper level anticyclone from  Odile. Weakening in the 0z Euro is due to land interaction, but I don't think the weakness will be as pronounced as shown in the Euro and HRWF, and the ridge to it's north will be the main steering mechanism before getting too close to land. With that said, I agree with the NHC's track and intensity forecast...although the potential for a stronger hurricane is definitely there.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

 

I'm sorry but I disagree. Storms can intensify with light to moderate shear. And the guidance has been shifting west.

 

You realize that virtually every storm this season has gotten much stronger than expected this season, right?

[wxmx]

Thanks to the stubborn Upper Level Ridge NW of Hawaii, there won't be any canes nearing Central/Southern Cali. 

Well, that and probably climo which suggests that canes are extremely rare anywhere near Central/Southern Cali.

[Will - Rutgers]

Wow.  Anyone else think that cherry could be something special?  I haven't been following weather too long but it seems like the E-Pac waves always look way more impressive than the Atlantic ones, with huge masses of cold cloud tops before they become depressions.  Wonder if Polo and Odile will be TS at the same time.

[Snow_Miser]

Wow. Anyone else think that cherry could be something special? I haven't been following weather too long but it seems like the E-Pac waves always look way more impressive than the Atlantic ones, with huge masses of cold cloud tops before they become depressions. Wonder if Polo and Odile will be TS at the same time.

Some of the 0z runs take the invest into Baja. That's the last thing they need.

[Will - Rutgers]

Some of the 0z runs take the invest into Baja. That's the last thing they need.

 

Absolutely.  Maybe the waters behind Odile are a little colder, at least.

[David Reimer]

Looks like we have Polo!

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area south of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the
Baja California peninsula.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to
tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has
also become better organized during the past couple of hours,
and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this
morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests
along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like we have Polo!

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of

the low pressure area south of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the

Baja California peninsula.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low

pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,

Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to

tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has

also become better organized during the past couple of hours,

and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this

morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to

northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests

along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of

this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

 

Deja vu?

 

[Yellow Evan]

Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9.

[phil882]

Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9.

 

Not going to happen. Satellite derived SST data is just picking up on the cold wake left behind from Odile but there are some sub 26C waters that Polo is traversing over. Its absolutely incorrect to think that the reason why the convective appearance looks disheveled is just due to vertical wind shear alone (despite the fact the NHC has made no mention of cold upwelling).