March 12 -14 Potential Storm

[Doorman]

 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

 

the plot thickens....

[weatherfreeeeak]

This is for March 15th..over 8 days away...the signal is there..but even with the last storm that we saw, we shouldnt jump on board until 2 and half days out, especially in mid March. If it's still there on Monday that's good, and if still there next Wednesday we can get excited, but right now it's really worth nothing but a potential

[mob1]

This is for March 15th..over 8 days away...the signal is there..but even with the last storm that we saw, we shouldnt jump on board until 2 and half days out, especially in mid March. If it's still there on Monday that's good, and if still there next Wednesday we can get excited, but right now it's really worth nothing but a potential

This is not January, when models show what could conceivably be the last snow threat of the winter you track it relentlessly from 10 days out. If it doesn't work out, welcome to spring

[needbiggerboat]

We'll need the PV in the right spot to prevent it charging up the Appalachians or going out to sea again. Lots has to line up for a winter event around the area.

Apps Runners happen a lot less than modeled. Sort of like teh Yeti...people talk about them, but only a few exist for real.

[SnoSki14]

Storms either track west of or east off the Apps for the most part and this isn't going west given the massive ridge out west so an OTS solution is probably more plausible than an apps runner.

It's all or nothing at this point and it's likely our last chance at something though the 18z gfs says otherwise so might as well track it even this far out. We've got nothing to lose, it's been a great winter so we are playing with house money.

[Doorman]

day 4 forecast spot check -- shortwave energy on the west coast

 

 

 

WPC  progs   ---  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

OPC  progs  ---http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml

OPC 500mb has nice ridge building

 

this would be the approx of a 72hr  Window to cross the U.S. 

Early Upstream Guide for this threat date

 

Run the WPC 3-7 surface progs you will see how this shortwave energy swings thru

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

 

 

I will Update and see what verifies in 96hrs on the West Coast

this is key player in the mix  -imho

 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12&region=we

 

 

the pac is loaded with potential without a doubt

[Juliancolton]

It's all or nothing at this point and it's likely our last chance at something though the 18z gfs says otherwise so might as well track it even this far out. We've got nothing to lose, it's been a great winter so we are playing with house money.

You mean in terms of this specific threat? Given the strong Miller-B signal, there could easily be some front-end overrunning snows even if the system redevelops inland. There are a range of possibilities, several of which could yield some appreciable snows.

[Doorman]

 

WPC Day 7 Update

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg

 

new theme song

 

http://youtu.be/vEHtUT_KFoc

[Coltsfan1217]

what does the 0z GFS look like? I know it's early, but why not have fun with the last threat of the winter

[Allsnow]

It's trying this run. Phasing is a bit sloppy.

[Juliancolton]

It's trying this run. Phasing is a bit sloppy.

Looks to me like it misses, more-or-less. Surface is ugly as well but better I suppose.

[Stormlover74]

Looks to me like it misses, more-or-less. Surface is ugly as well but better I suppose.

Still gives us a few inches

[Doorman]

Repeat after me....

 

Comma Head Deformation Band

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_204.gif

 

 

With 6 days to trend under 100 miles west

I'll take that bet!!!!

 

big picture view

same time-frame

this will not be an easy escape off the coast

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_atlantic_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

 

 

How do you like me now accu lurkers????

[MJO812]

GFS was really close to a monster.

[MJO812]

Nice hit from the Euro

[JSantanaNYC]

Nice hit from the Euro

you said it was more east than 12z ? But is the end result better?

[atownwxwatcher]

00z ECM 162 Hrs there is one low off the delmarva and one low over the Southeast and one wave or low over Eastern LA . Light snow across the region 

168 hrs Low off the DE coast... Heavy QPF across NJ to NYC with moderate to heavy in E PA 
174 996 MB low east of NJ light to moderate snows NE PA and NNJ 

Another area of precipitation back over TN

180 994 SE of Cape Cod..
Snow maps show 12 + in NYC , NE NJ and East Central NJ and 6 + around ABE to NE PA to SE PA ..less to the west ...

Took the heavy snows away from Western NY

[Storm chaser]

When is this Possible storm taking place within a week or like 10 days from now. Not excited yet as we were within 3 or 4 days of a possible Huge storm that fizzled but I guess something to keep an eye on.

 

edit: looking at above post looks like 7 days away 

[JSantanaNYC]

Well i guess that answers my question. Thank you.

Now we are 6 days away.. and models will keep showing different solutions..at least they show a storm.

[Nibor]

0z Euro run is no where near as large of a system as 12z was. Still, brings a major snowfall to the area.

[n504jb]

I believe he is just known to be a very bad poster instead.

I'm not sure what that means. Cynical? Sarcastic? Arrogant? I'm a pilot, not a "met" so I'm not qualified to judge anybody's savvy with respect to model analysis but aside from entertainment value, I don't see the practical fruit of trying to guess if a system will zig or zag a week out.

[Heisy]

EURO misses a phase, but still is able to develop a snowstorm... LONG way to go, and anything could happen at this point.

[Weathergun]

The 0z Euro Ensemble Mean has 1000mb low tracking over 40/70 BM. Total qpf is .50"+ There is a strong +PNA, PV over Southern Baffin Island and an east-based -NAO forming.

[bluewave]

The 0z Euro Ensemble Mean has 1000mb low tracking over 40/70 BM. Total qpf is .50"+ There is a strong +PNA, PV over Southern Baffin Island and an east-based -NAO forming.

 

The ensemble mean doesn't hang the energy back as much this run so the storm tracks further

west than the OP and more consolidated. The ensemble mean has been fairly steady last few days

as the OP has been jumping around.

 

[Doorman]

.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

OVER THE WEST EXPECT INITIAL PACIFIC ORIGIN OF FLOW AND THEN RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR
SUN-SUN NIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST AND FAVORED TERRAIN
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MSTR WILL THEN LINGER FOR A TIME OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EXTEND E/SE INTO PARTS OF THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES
WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED BY WED-THU.

OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS... UPR SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEPARTING FROM
NRN MEXICO AND TX SHOULD SUPPORT RNFL OF VARYING INTENSITY FROM
THE RIO GRANDE VLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. PASSAGE OF ERN
PAC/WRN CONUS ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AROUND TUE OR WED.
FARTHER EWD... EXPECT ENERGY WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW TO GENERATE
ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENG DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THEN SPECIFICS OF ERN CONUS/WRN
ATLC SFC EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE WHERE WINTRY PCPN MAY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NRN HALF OF THE EAST. WED-THU EVOLUTION IN THE
PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR
TEMPS... THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR REACHES THE EAST WITH A BROAD
AREA OF DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL PSBL BY NEXT THU.

RAUSCH

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

 

PAC looks just a little busy....atm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif

 

 

 

I think I hear a pig yelling weeeeeeeee!    

[PB GFI]

Day 7 . Wish it was day 3 , but that's me .

[REDMK6GLI]

Day 7 . Wish it was day 3 , but that's me .

Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid march

[Yanksfan]

Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid march

Wow! that's one impressive signal for a day 7 ensemble mean. I have to agree with you on this as far as waiting it out. The last storm literally pulled the carpet right out from under us. I'll wait till monday before i bite. 

[Weathergun]

The ensemble mean doesn't hang the energy back as much this run so the storm tracks further

west than the OP and more consolidated. The ensemble mean has been fairly steady last few days

as the OP has been jumping around.

 

MSLP_North32America_168.gif

 

The Euro OP has the +PNA ridge collapsing east, causing more energy to hold back SW. While the Euro ensemble keeps the ridge more amplified and allowing for more energy to consolidate faster. I do agree about the ensemble mean being more consistent so far and it's still good signal for us. But we've seen changes in the ensemble mean this far out as well. So we just have to see, if it remains consistent. The features I'm looking most at through this weekend, is a good placement of PNA ridge and the PV. As well more trends for an east-based -NAO to slow the flow down a bit off the east coast.

 

[bluewave]

The Euro OP has the +PNA ridge collapsing east, causing more energy to hold back SW. While the Euro ensemble keeps the ridge more amplified and allowing for more energy to consolidate faster. I do agree about the ensemble mean being more consistent so far and it's still good signal for us. But we've seen changes in the ensemble mean this far out as well. So we just have to see, if it remains consistent. The features I'm looking most at through this weekend, is a good placement of PNA ridge and the PV. As well more trends for an east-based -NAO to slow the flow down a bit off the east coast.

 

 

 

Yeah, the CMC ensemble mean looks much like the Euro ensembles. The CMC Op has pulled into

second place behind the Euro on skill recently at day 6.