Absolute Humidity Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yea That was awesome. My fav was the 50dbz storm. Giant flakes and constant lightning for 20 min before the change over, never saw anything like that. (although a few days later we had another convective storm which was really good as well) Yes Feb 13 was awesome, my second fav, had lightning here too and even high winds resulting in a 15minute power failure. If not for the taint, that would have been my best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The energy coming down from Manitoba was not nearly as meridional this run as it was on the 12z run. It was definitely suspiciously meridional on the past run, given there's not a whole lot of blocking to force energy diving from due north to south. But the energy holding back to the west hurts a lot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The energy coming down from Manitoba was not nearly as meridional this run as it was on the 12z run. It was definitely suspiciously meridional on the past run, given there's not a whole lot of blocking to force energy diving from due north to south. But the energy holding back to the west hurts a lot as well. Was the euro rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 6 GFS looks decent for NW Zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 fear not .....says the WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD100 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014VALID 12Z TUE MAR 11 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 15 2014...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND BRITISH COLUMBIAINTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES MIDWEEK WHILE DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVETROUGHING PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THIS WILLSUPPORT A DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG 40N FROM KS TO KYTO CAPE COD TUE-THU/D3-5... RESPECTIVELY. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEENSTEADILY SHOWING A SYSTEM WITH A SLOW TREND TOWARD A DEEPERSOLUTION WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED THEIR RANGEOVER THE PAST 48 HRS. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL LIES ON THESLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THEGFS LIES ON THE QUICKER AND LESS DEVELOPED SIDE. PHASING OFENERGY... OR NOT... BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WILLLIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. RIDGING OVER THEWEST WILL TRY TO REMAIN IN TACT... THOUGH ENERGY FROM THE EASTERNPACIFIC WILL ATTEMPT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT IT BUT SHOULD BE LARGELYUNSUCCESSFUL. AGAIN THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITHSHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW FRI/D6 COMPARED TO THEGEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLES. A NEARLY EVEN BLEND AMONG THE 18Z GFS/GEFSAND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FORTHE FORECAST... TRENDING TOWARD AN 80/20 ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTICWEIGHTING BY SAT/D7. UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE YET TO JOIN THIS ONGOINGGOOD CLUSTER. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d5500wbg.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f120_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The 6z GFS has a more potent Manitoba shortwave digging over Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes than the 0z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The 6z GFS has a more potent Manitoba shortwave digging over Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes than the 0z run had. Yeah. Verbatim it's a 984 inside the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah. Verbatim it's a 984 inside the bm. That kind of deepening storm you wouldnt even have much mixing along the coast. However this is the 6z and i am going to keep my excitement tempered until 12z tommorow. Looks like from the last model suites it has gotten progressively colder so that is a good sign as well IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 That kind of deepening storm you wouldnt even have much mixing along the coast. However this is the 6z and i am going to keep my excitement tempered until 12z tommorow. Looks like from the last model suites it has gotten progressively colder so that is a good sign as well IMO Huh. The 6z GFS is a cold rain storm for the city south and east. We are plus 2 all the way to hour 120. Then the system deepens east of us. Wrap around snows are rare. You want this well south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Huh. The 6z GFS is a cold rain storm for the city south and east. We are plus 2 all the way to hour 120. Then the system deepens east of us. Wrap around snows are rare. You want this well south of you. Yea i wrote this wayyy wrong looked at the wrong mb map paul sorry that is a fail on my part just got to work and still asleep as you can tell from that god awful post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Huh. The 6z GFS is a cold rain storm for the city south and east. We are plus 2 all the way to hour 120. Then the system deepens east of us. Wrap around snows are rare. You want this well south of you. How did the EURO ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yea i wrote this wayyy wrong looked at the wrong mb map paul sorry that is a fail on my part just got to work and still asleep as you can tell from that god awful post Its ok brother. Wasn't sure what you were seeing. Would b nice to a see 50 mile click south over 4 days. He have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How did the EURO ensembles look?The ensembles were good . The control is great for Albany. The euro ensembles still takes this thru the tenn valley off OBX then to the BM. The control takes the center from Bekley to Boston. It's been the western most solution of all the guidance. But after seeing the 6z come a little further west this morning my fear is the control may be right if the system is that wound up I really want to see the control come east and It hasn't in 5 days. Hopefully today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The ensembles were good . The control is great for Albany. The euro ensembles still takes this thru the tenn valley off OBX then to the BM. The control takes the center from Bekley to Boston. It's been the western most solution of all the guidance. But after seeing the 6z come a little further west this morning my fear is the control may be right if the system is that wound up I really want to see the control come east and It hasn't in 5 days. Hopefully today. CMC (usually amped) and NAVGEM are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 CMC (usually amped) and NAVGEM are south That amped CMC bias seems as if it's less prevalent than it used to be, it more common on pure southern streamers coming out of the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS isnt out yet or is it having such a huge hickup there is mass depression sweeping the Am WX nation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS isnt out yet or is it having such a huge hickup there is mass depression sweeping the Am WX nation? out to 60 hrs. on Trop Tidbits. Have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Slightly stronger vort and deeper low at 12z Tuesday campared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Out to 96hr is more amplified and warmer than 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Out 102hr, 994mb low near DC. 850mb 0C line over the Lower Hudson Valley. All rain for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Rainstorm on the gfs, even for nw areas. To phased and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Umbrella city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Rain for all ct also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Goes neg tilt later than 6z so most of the precip is over when cold arrives behind storm. In rain to snow situations we generally need a faster neg tilt or a strong closed low at 500 mb to get more than a backend coating to slushy inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need that high to come down faster on the GFS . Too much phasing for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Goes neg tilt later than 6z so most of the precip is over when cold arrives behind storm. In rain to snow situations we generally need a faster neg tilt or a strong closed low at 500 mb to get more than a backend coating to slushy inch or two. The 12z GFS is actually a sloppy phase with a SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need that high to come down faster on the GFS . Too much phasing for my liking. First of all - the flow is too progressive - there is no real blocking - so this storm should not be as intense as it has been modeled - it is all going to come down to the exact track of the storm and timing of the polar high coming down into southeast Canada - if the cold air can get into the region before the storms precip makes it into the region then the chances of frozen increase - BUT if the high and cold air arrives after the storm gets going there is going to be more liquid then frozen here - its as simple as that. We will not really get a good handle on this event until Monday when the storm comes ashore in the west and there is better sampling that will be fed into the models at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The air mass in front of this system is warm. This is trending towards the control run . Remember when u saw the euro ensembles 7 days out they look great because the spread in the members are Albany to a whiff But now as you get closer you see the ensembles are a little more west at just day 5. Notice how the control hasn't moved. This doesn't smell like snow to me here not even a little. Sorry just my opinion boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Its more about the position of the '50/50' low and high. Prior the 50/50 was more pronounced and further west and the high was more pronounced and further east with the combination really funneling cold air forcibly south. Last couple runs both are weaker / further apart and thusly the cold does not press as far. Still time to change though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah shame we couldn't end on a better note but this is just a rain event unless things completely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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