Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 850's bounce between 0 and +1 from 0z on tonight on the Euro for the triad to RDU. So close! It really could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 man, the euro is so, so, so close to a snow event for gso, if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 All we need is a 20 mile or so shift east. Not so much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lol at the euro Absolute paste job for foothills east into the triad along and north of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 man, the euro is so, so, so close to a snow event for gso, if I had to guess. Is it close for nega Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Spill it. HAH, someone else commented it has 24" of "snow" for GSO, which would probably be a mix of snow/sleet/frzn, who knows how it would fall out, key is they are 30F or below from 0z tonight through at least mid-morning tomorrow. We are at 33F and +1 850 temp, can't believe we are going to miss a major winter storm by 1-2 degrees at 850/2m temps, LOL. I don't think I can recall this cold of rain miss for us, this takes the cake for sure, it literally can't get any colder and be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 James, does Euro show qpf actually getting up into ROA this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 HAH, someone else commented it has 24" of "snow" for GSO, which would probably be a mix of snow/sleet/frzn, who knows how it would fall out, key is they are 30F or below from 0z tonight through at least mid-morning tomorrow. We are at 33F and +1 850 temp, can't believe we are going to miss a major winter storm by 1-2 degrees at 850/2m temps, LOL. I don't think I can recall this cold of rain miss for us, this takes the cake for sure, it literally can't get any colder and be rain. I don't know, it could go either way. Take even half of what the Euro shows and it is still a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 HAH, someone else commented it has 24" of "snow" for GSO, which would probably be a mix of snow/sleet/frzn, who knows how it would fall out, key is they are 30F or below from 0z tonight through at least mid-morning tomorrow. We are at 33F and +1 850 temp, can't believe we are going to miss a major winter storm by 1-2 degrees at 850/2m temps, LOL. I don't think I can recall this cold of rain miss for us, this takes the cake for sure, it literally can't get any colder and be rain. I suppose a slight deviation in virtually anything could shave or add a degree at 850. I really can't believe that map will turn out like that. I guess it's possible, but this will be really one that will be remembered for a long time, if it turns out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 so does this mean that Greenville,SC has a chance at seeing at least a winterweather advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lookout, I'm very curious to see what you get and how close to 32 you fall. Aren't you like ~25 miles east of AHN? What is your current temp.? Edit: after reaching nearly 45, mine has fallen back to 43.0 during the last hour or so, My lowest was ~39. Got up to 41 before it started, now down to 38 over 19. So that's a wetbulb just below freezing. Very close call. Normally I don't like seeing it get to the 40s here unless dewpoints are in the single digits or something..which obviously it wasn't. So if there is winter weather here, it would probably have to be in the form of snow/sleet with the upper low. hard to picture much freezing rain..UNLESS dewpoints actually drop with the temperature like they did over central ga. Other stations, like greensboro, didn't see that..but they didn't have as much precip either., Sure does. I'd be cautious on that though. The nam/gfs have indicated that the boundary layer temps warm with time with the colder air moving south indicating the cold 900 to 950mb temps don't quite match up to the 850s by that time. I don't see why the euro would be much different. however, what will be interesting to watch unfold is if the deformation zone can cause a generalized area of cooling vs very localized cooling with heavier precip rates or banding. one thing is for sure, the euro is much drier over the western half of ga. earlier runs had over an inch, this mornings run only shows 0.25 or so. I've not been impressed so far with the precip with this system..I hope the models haven't been too wet because if they are, the likely hood of snow really goes down for most people..especially outside the mountains since we need heavy and constant precip to dynamically cool the column. That said, it's interesting to note the rap has gradually been trending colder at 850mb all morning. With each run, the observed 850s are colder than the previous projected temp and the warming at that level is less and less with each run. Will see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 so does this mean that Greenville,SC has a chance at seeing at least a winterweather advisory? It's gonna be 35 and rain. Watch and learn. Never fails to under perform in Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 James, does Euro show qpf actually getting up into ROA this run? I wouldn't put much into the euro at this point rpm is what you need to watch and its not even good for foothills in nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 James, does Euro show qpf actually getting up into ROA this run? yes has about .30" of QPF, should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I can't see anything but the 24 hour panels on eWall, but it looks like the Euro shows a classic RDU snowstorm track. Without it being cold enough, it will be a classic rainstorm. Does the deform band set up west of RDU or does it rotate over us like the CMC showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wouldn't put much into the euro at this point rpm is what you need to watch and its not even good for foothills in nc Really? I would trust the Euro over the RPM, maybe RPM for a 6 hour period not a 12-18 hour model run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I can't see anything but the 24 hour panels on eWall, but it looks like the Euro shows a classic RDU snowstorm track. Without it being cold enough, it will be a classic rainstorm. Does the deform band set up west of RDU or does it rotate over us like the CMC showed? But what if it is cold enough? Why is the Euro showing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Thats a good representation of the rain/snow line imo. But the amounts are high as hell. Slash them by 3 and freezing rain & sleet on top. That bulleye of 23+ is actually about 6-8" For entertainment: (That's a lot of frozen precip, though not snow... though you probably can't rule out some snow mixing in at times) Anyways, I have to run. Adios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wouldn't put much into the euro at this point rpm is what you need to watch and its not even good for foothills in nc RGEM has been the King in the short range. I don't put much weight or stock in the rpm/in-house models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I can't see anything but the 24 hour panels on eWall, but it looks like the Euro shows a classic RDU snowstorm track. Without it being cold enough, it will be a classic rainstorm. Does the deform band set up west of RDU or does it rotate over us like the CMC showed? It does, but rotates better for GSO, they are jackpot precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well how does the RGEM look then? I remember the Euro was putting out 12 plus here in Feb and we only got 8, but Ill take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It does, but rotates better for GSO, they are jackpot precip wise. Gotcha. That makes sense, actually. Most of the time, that band sets up farther west than us. Not sure why that is the case, usually, but it is. That's where snow will fall, if snow is going to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The euro assumes 10:1 rations though and we're not expecting anywhere near that with this storm...right? So even if that map was all snow wouldn't it be more like 60% of those totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 that sounds good to me I've just always been told short-range rpm was best I don't really know??? I certainly hope the euro is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lookout, I'm very curious to see what you get and how close to 32 you fall. What is your current temp.? Edit: after reaching nearly 45, mine has fallen back to 43.0 during the last hour or so, My lowest was ~39. 36/32 here Larry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sorry for a imby question but with 850 temps hovering between 0 and 1 for GSO wouldn't that mean that I could possibly be close to all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well how does the RGEM look then? I remember the Euro was putting out 12 plus here in Feb and we only got 8, but Ill take what I can get. 6z hit WNC pretty hard, but 12z is showing less snow. Still few inches for Asheville with more at Mt. Mitchell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sorry for a imby question but with 850 temps hovering between 0 and 1 for GSO wouldn't that mean that I could possibly be close to all snow? Yes and rate depenent. Heavier rates will help keep the column isothermal = more snow...unless there's a warm layer somewhere other than 850. Lighter rates may equal more non-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RGEM has been the King in the short range. I don't put much weight or stock in the rpm/in-house models. What did 12z RGEM show for N.Foothills? I just noticed what Matthew East said also about RPM a few post back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes and rate depenent. Heavier rates will help keep the column isothermal = more snow...unless there's a warm layer somewhere other than 850. Lighter rates may equal more non-snow.okay thanks. So wouldn't the majority of forecasts be way too conservative right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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