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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Thanks Will. Harv's map to a T.

 

I wouldn'[t stray far from his map right now based on what I see.

 

 

I'm not seieng some big push east on the regional loops...but we'll know for sure in the next 3-4 hours. I'll be out snowshoing enyoing the deep winter day in Princeton

 

Feb15_1220pm_Radar.gif

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Now-cast ob here:  Not included with the compact nature of this beast ... there appears to be a small omega burst approaching the eastern half of LI ... perhaps also connected with moderate burst that has grown on radar over eastern CT.  This has rad trajectories that would envelope most of eastern Mass and RI, east of I-90 ish as the afternoon progresses forward.    I don't believe this area is really associated with the inner workings of the developing/bombing low and what will ultimately strike SE NE later on.   

 

thoughts ?

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Now-cast ob here:  Not included with the compact nature of this beast ... there appears to be a small omega burst approaching the eastern half of LI ... perhaps also connected with moderate burst that has grown on radar over eastern CT.  This has rad trajectories that would envelope most of eastern Mass and RI, east of I-90 ish as the afternoon progresses forward.    I don't believe this area is really associated with the inner workings of the developing/bombing low and what will ultimately strike SE NE later on.   

 

thoughts ?

Been watching that on Sat, out of radar range but just coming in, yea the premature calls will be in trouble if that does not crash and burn.

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I wouldn'[t stray far from his map right now based on what I see.

 

 

I'm not seieng some big push east on the regional loops...but we'll know for sure in the next 3-4 hours. I'll be out snowshoing enyoing the deep winter day in Princeton

 

Feb15_1220pm_Radar.gif

 

 

Boot east is visible swinging just under the BGM site right now.  Let's see how much thump it has.  Also there's that dry punch up off the Jersey coast heading into LI.

 

Euro will settle this shortly.

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Many people have compared this to 1/27/11 I think. Even the poster comments are similar.....lol.

 

 

1/27/11 was about as crazy day forecasting as I had...some were saying that it was a clear whiff SE...even for BOS within 8 hours of the onset...others were going 12"....the 12" won that day...out to here even. I had like 12.8" or something.

 

 

This is a smaller version of that storm...the cutoff will be a bit further east too. But I'm feeling fine if I'm in BOS for 6"+...out west I'm expecting advisory snows...I'll consider it lucky if we get 6".

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1/27/11 was about as crazy day forecasting as I had...some were saying that it was a clear whiff SE...even for BOS within 8 hours of the onset...others were going 12"....the 12" won that day...out to here even. I had like 12.8" or something.

 

 

This is a smaller version of that storm...the cutoff will be a bit further east too. But I'm feeling fine if I'm in BOS for 6"+...out west I'm expecting advisory snows...I'll consider it lucky if we get 6".

The NAM products I'm looking at don't even look close to verifying. RGEM is better looking to me for a se track. Still probably too far SE but at least it looks like it has more of a clue.

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15z is a maul from Boston into se ma and the canal. Right around the canal intense banding signal and a bullseye of almost 14-16". Interior cape ann even makes a run @ 8-9". Basically a foot of snow anywhere from BOS SE. lol

 

Regardless of which model tickled which way, I think all of them are pointing towards the canal as the sweet spot.

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Scott and Will, I will preface this with the caveat that its a bit of a manifestation of some late-in-the-game frustration....but why is it that seemingly every time that the western edge is modeled out west, and north, the good banding makes it further nw than expected....but whenever its around this area: No soup.

Poof.

I would say the best banding was never really modeled out in ur area aside from a run of the gfs that oceanstwx posted w a graphic on it, And he mentioned he was skeptical of the gfs placement of lift so far nw of 7h warm front. This is speaking of this storm specifically. I would think best banding would tend to set up perhaps over specific areas (more often but not exclusively) do to orographic effects

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