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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S.

 

I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything.

 

Will do you agree NAM temps are fine west of Hyannis?  I think fella and I both saw an erroneous map that showed the 8h line well NW for a time.  It's not on any of the other sites which show it out by chatham.

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FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S.

 

I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything.

Thats on this run Will? Crazy to have so much dissonance in now cast time.

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It doesn't really have that much of an effect of low track. A strong vortmax going over waters that are 70F+ will gain moisture no matter what. It's more about vort track.

 

Exactly, dynamics alone will wring out everything available. It's mainly to say that this won't be a QPF bomb, there is a limit to how much it will produce.

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Thats on this run Will? Crazy to have so much dissonance in now cast time.

 

 

Yes. I was surprised it was off by that much...but again, we don't know exactly how that will physically translate into this sytem...the convection being much furthers SW than the NAM had it would theoretically pump up the heights more ahead of the storm and produce a closer solution....if all else was equal...but in meteorology there's tons of moving parts.

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Stop with the SE crap.

 

It's SE with the 5h, it's se with the QPF.  HPC's suspicions about feedback are proving to be true, it developed the mid level center too far NW in response to convection.  Been discussed for 24 hours.  At the very least it overdeveloped at 5h (compared to earlier 0z etc) and that's part of why we're seeing it back down on QPF.

 

Back down as in away from the main band it's cut back, I'm not specifically referring to anything EAST of the main band which is still fine.  My contention all along was that it was developing precip too far west because it wasn't focusing on the main band enough because of potential feedback.

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