NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And another bonus - my work shift for tonight got cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Out shoveling the better part of the afternoon. So where does everything come together for round two? I-99, I-81, or I-95? Looking at the radar at the moment, the trajectory of the motion in Virginia along with the pivoting band in State College leads me to believe I-81 might be a good spot, but....I've been hearing that what's in Virginia goes more northeast up I-95. Mag or any others? I expect everyone to fill back in down in the Sus Valley. At this point if your in the lull there's really no way out of this storm without seeing another period of precip. Any mixed precip should go back over to snow in fairly short order with the deepening low. I expect that there will probably be at least a couple additional inches and perhaps up to 3-4".. and it could come pretty rapidly making things messy again. This could help maintain the positioning of the snow in the central counties for awhile. I have noticed snow backing off of the Pittsburgh area on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow cover clear down to northern AL/GA (can just make out the Tennessee River in AL if you look closely), pretty impressive. Looks like we're managing to stay within the decent stuff here in State College, northwestward progression of the precip shield seems to have stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The lull in precipitation and rising temps did wonders for PennDot crews. I had only wet roads on my ride home from work along I-81 and Cameron St. Even the main streets in the city of Harrisburg are in good shape. Not so much the side streets, but that's pretty impressive for a storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dad says sleet mixing in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dad says sleet mixing in now. Wow, that's pretty far north for sleet! Still all snow here, and the temperature seems to have finally stalled around 28°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man lots of reports of thunder-snow out of Virginia hope it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lsv Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lil OT, if mets,or some1 more knowledgeable can chime in, with next lil system comn thru sat. What's odds of it forming into another coastal, maybe getting it good again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 State College (Waupelani): 5.5" on top of my car SN-, visibility > 1 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The band over central PA looks to be nearly stationary at this moment. Still have a hint of decent mesoscale forcing on the SPC mesoanalysis, with enhanced 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis. That should slowly decrease through the evening, though the 700 mb low looks to be travelling northeastward, with a large component of its motion in the direction of the band axis. So weakening and pivoting/translation east will occur relatively slowly through the evening. Should be able to pick up at least a couple more inches here in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FWIW... Mt. Holly added the chance of thunder to their forecasts. So has Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The band over central PA looks to be nearly stationary at this moment. Still have a hint of decent mesoscale forcing on the SPC mesoanalysis, with enhanced 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis. That should slowly decrease through the evening, though the 700 mb low looks to be travelling northeastward, with a large component of its motion in the direction of the band axis. So weakening and pivoting/translation east will occur relatively slowly through the evening. Should be able to pick up at least a couple more inches here in State College. Any thoughts on the mixing line? Seems to be pretty far north and west as per what Wmsptwx is relaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The band over central PA looks to be nearly stationary at this moment. Still have a hint of decent mesoscale forcing on the SPC mesoanalysis, with enhanced 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis. That should slowly decrease through the evening, though the 700 mb low looks to be travelling northeastward, with a large component of its motion in the direction of the band axis. So weakening and pivoting/translation east will occur relatively slowly through the evening. Should be able to pick up at least a couple more inches here in State College. After going for awhile with snow rates not befitting of the what the radar looked like, it has finally really picked up to a nice moderate to heavy intensity the last half hour. Up to 5" here in Bellwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks Mag for your insights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Back to snow in williamsport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any thoughts on the mixing line? Seems to be pretty far north and west as per what Wmsptwx is relaying. Maybe on the very edge of the band where the forcing is weak. The 20z RAP 1 hour forecast sounding does show the warmest temperatures near 850 mb around freezing, just east of IPT. I doubt we see any mixing, especially with cold air advection developing in the next few hours and our placement within the band. Also, that sounding showed temperatures cooling within the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We better cool down soon or these thunderstorms are going to start as rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The lull in precipitation and rising temps did wonders for PennDot crews. I had only wet roads on my ride home from work along I-81 and Cameron St. Even the main streets in the city of Harrisburg are in good shape. Not so much the side streets, but that's pretty impressive for a storm of this magnitude.Good to hear, thanks. I live off 4th and it's pavement, my side street hasn't seen a plow but that's not a huge issue for us w/ AWD SUVs. Also today reminds me how thankful I am for our garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lil OT, if mets,or some1 more knowledgeable can chime in, with next lil system comn thru sat. What's odds of it forming into another coastal, maybe getting it good again? Keeping an eye on it, looks like right now it's going to take a swipe at the southern tier and perhaps add a couple more inches of snow to our glacier. CTP mentioned about maybe needing advisories for it. GFS/NAM/SREFs/CMC have some snows mainly along the first couple tiers of southern counties. Euro really dove the system into the south and didn't have much in PA. We'll have a better look at it late tonight/tomorrow when we get this major storm out of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like were about to get slammed with RAIN in york. Temps aren't cooling and heavy thunderstorms moving in from the south. I thought it was gonna be snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm seeing Millersville reporting temp of 31, hope it will drop a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS a solid .25"+ qpf for 81 east from this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the band over Central PA is intensifying again from south to north. Could be in association with the fact that the surface low is getting nearer? Or maybe the 500mb low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like were about to get slammed with RAIN in york. Temps aren't cooling and heavy thunderstorms moving in from the south. I thought it was gonna be snow lol. Not going to rain. Upper levels are plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the band over Central PA is intensifying again from south to north. Could be in association with the fact that the surface low is getting nearer? Or maybe the 500mb low? GFS shows this and got .3" down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I finished round one with 8.5" of snow and sleet that ended with freezing rain. It all melted to 1.06" of liquid. We were getting some incredible rates this morning but I have no way of getting an accurate snow ratio. Edit: Ephrata location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the band over Central PA is intensifying again from south to north. Could be in association with the fact that the surface low is getting nearer? Or maybe the 500mb low? I was just going to post about this. More organized than it was about 20-30min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thing of beauty, the seemingly rare AOO/UNV/IPT crusher. Very little if any movement on it either currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess the ULL undercuts that band, no? Does it pull it east along with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thing of beauty, the seemingly rare AOO/UNV/IPT crusher. Very little if any movement on it either currently. ccx2131z.png It's awesome! But I wouldn't really describe it as a "crusher" here. We barely managed 1" per hour rates (back when the band was at its strongest), and we'll be lucky if we end up with more than 8" total. There are plenty of places in PA that had much more snow, even if it was shorter-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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