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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion


Wow

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Much better graphics for the Canadian here - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

RGEM goes to hour 48, then GGEM picks up after hour 48 (not out yet)...make sure you have the correct model run entered

 

That's great animation by the GGEM, you can really see the deformation band set up and pivot across north Georgia as the storm winds up.  North Georgia is absolutely hammered if this comes close to verifying.  Snow, sleet/frz rain, and back to snow.  Atlanta will be deserted.

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The WLOS MET must have seen the GFS before she went on the air... Paints 3-5 KAVL, 8-10 Saluda/H'ville and >12 for the upstate. Would this last GFS run put the models close enough to say we have a consensus? Also, will tonight's Euro run set the stage for other on air Mets to start upping the totals? My friends thought I was nuts buying tire chains last Thursday....

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One thing to remember though. In all the really big snowstorms I've ever seen, the mets NEVER say, before the storm begins, the accumulations will be what they turn out to be. They always give a conservative estimate before the storm begins to unfold. I know just a few minutes ago on Fox 21 the met showed the new projected snow totals map and it showed a little over 7 inches here in the Greenville area and he said he didn't buy it, that he would cut that in half. But from what I've been seeing you guys on the forums say about the total liquid content during this event, I don't see how 7 inches would be out of the question.

you are correct, and i am not saying it cannot happen. But, we have several factors working against us not present in storms jan 88 and even Jan 2011, namely, the much colder air, frozen ground, and lack of mixed precipitation with those storms. Those systems resulted in higher ratios and visually 100 percent accumulation of snow that fell. Even though there may be lots of qpf, the accums will tend to be low. I'd say the 2-4 for upstate is much more realistic than 8-12 being thrown around here.

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Well, the 12z EURO and 0z NAM are relatively close in my opinion. The storm, in my opinion, is going to wrap itself up and move up the eastern seaboard. The GFS is continuing to trend that way. The NAM is too far inland with the storm which causes the QPF to be too high, but the GFS is too far eastward, in my opinion leading to lower precipitation totals. Still yet, this is going to be a big storm for a lot of people regardless. The questions now become about where does the snow/ice/rain lines set-up and how much moisture will be pulled northward.

 

I can appreciate what you are saying but I think the reason the NAM was too far inland was because it was simply too amped, thus the extra QPF.  It sounds like you like the logic of the GFS short of the fact you would like to see it a little more amped and wet. Thanks for the discussion. What's your thought about the convective feedback issue? Does that blob of convection reflect reality in your opinion?

 

Edit: referring to the GFS. Sorry about that.

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I can appreciate what you are saying but I think the reason the NAM was too far inland was because it was simply too amped, thus the extra QPF.  It sounds like you like the logic of the GFS short of the fact you would like to see it a little more amped and wet. Thanks for the discussion. What's your thought about the convective feedback issue? Does that blob of convection reflect reality in your opinion?

 

Edit: referring to the GFS. Sorry about that.

 

I am not exactly sure what the GFS is trying to show with the convective blob, so no that does not reflect reality in my opinion.

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Thanks. Lookout pointed that out earlier. So, in theory, could that be the reason for the GFS lower precip output?

 

I am not sure honestly, it could be, but I can not say for sure. It will be interesting to see if the GFS ensemble continues to have higher precipitation means than the operational, imo. 

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Thanks. Lookout pointed that out earlier. So, in theory, could that be the reason for the GFS lower precip output?

 

It could be a convective feedback issue, which could mean that the model isn't expanding the qpf out far enough from the surface pressure.  But the GFS could also be picking up on convective inhibition, which means that the moisture will be cut off further north until the surface low forms along the Atlantic coast.     

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It could be a convective feedback issue, which could mean that the model isn't expanding the qpf out far enough from the surface pressure.  But the GFS could also be picking up on convective inhibition, which means that the moisture will be cut off further north until the surface low forms along the Atlantic coast.     

 

I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback.

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I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback.

 

 

I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback.

 

It's hard to say what's going to happen, but if convection lines up vertically then that could actually enhance moisture flow from the Gulf.  The NAM appears to be showing this.  I think that setup is more likely.  But if you see convection setting up horizontally along the coast then the system could be moisture starved further north until the surface low translates into the Atlantic.  

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It's hard to say what's going to happen, but if convection lines up vertically then that could actually enhance moisture flow from the Gulf.  The NAM appears to be showing this.  I think that setup is more likely.  But if you see convection setting up horizontally along the coast then the system could be moisture starved further north until the surface low translates into the Atlantic.  

 

I have seen one prime example of that when I lived in St. Louis in the mid-90's. Biggest storm modeled there in years and instead the Texas coast just lit up with thunderstorms and Houston became flooded. I think we got flurries.

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DT's first call...

 

12" here.  Not bad.  Too high, IMO, but I'll take it. ;)

 

 

 

(Should this be in banter?)

 

No, it's fair game in here.  I guess he's not concerned with the sleet potential mainly east of 85 some of the models are throwing out?

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