Eskimo Joe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You used to work with Eric Horst, right? He is calling the ice potential tomorrow night "scary." That is his word...I'm sticking with him. Correct. I have yet to experience one ice storm that has proved to be more than a nuisance for roads or power outages though. I don't consider things scary until you're on day 4 without power and it's not just lines down but snapped poles and destroyed transformers. Working in the OEM field has made me numb to the 4 hour outage inconvenience or day of no school / work / closed government, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll get an official measurement once the baby wakes from her nap, but my guess would be 5-6 inches here. Can't help but think how huge this would have been with cold temps from the start. GFS ensembles with some good hits for the weekend, no? Really looking forward to hearing the mets discuss that possible event. Very much so. In fact, P008 is pretty much a central PA weenie's dream come true. Looks like 2.5-3" of qpf here in State College, all of it snow (and probably good ratios to boot). If only... 2nd one over on the bottom. Thanks. Haha, exactly! P008! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not sure if this was posted here yet... I don't see those ZR amounts verifying in Centre County. Even without the colder trend that seems to be ongoing, these type of events tend to be more Snow vs Sleet up here. Now for the Laurels and Lehigh Valley... that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Correct. I have yet to experience one ice storm that has proved to be more than a nuisance for roads or power outages though. I don't consider things scary until you're on day 4 without power and it's not just lines down but snapped poles and destroyed transformers. Working in the OEM field has made me numb to the 4 hour outage inconvenience or day of no school / work / closed government, etc. I basically agree with you...ice I think has often been overhyped, which is why for someone like Eric to make that comment is pretty telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't see those ZR amounts verifying in Centre County. Even without the colder trend that seems to be ongoing, these type of events tend to be more Snow vs Sleet up here. Now for the Laurels and Lehigh Valley... that's another story. Ya, I think it's probably just a little on the "broadbrushed" side right now. They'll probably narrow it down as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here we go. First call map for tomorrow night-Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seems like the 12z NAM has finally started to cool the temp column for Wednesday's storm towards where the GFS and Euro and associated ensembles have been at. New GFS ensembles keep the 0C line below UNV. Given the setup my opinion remains that the warning level freezing rain sticks to the southern tier counties along the turnpike with mixing of predominantly sleet and a bit of freezing rain between the turnpike and I-80. Canadian keeps things sleet for awhile all the way to Zacks neck of the woods. In short, I don't buy the warning level freezing rain driving all the way into the heart of central PA. With the low staying largely under PA now with it's transfer to the coast I just feel that such things are Central PA 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Operational GFS is "driest" for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 UKMET actually looks more like the NOGAPS. Keeps the 850 0C line in southern PA. Still throws a good 20mm (0.79") or more of QPF for the southern 2/3 of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 One last burst hitting here with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well it looks like the snow is done here for today...we have 1" on the dot from today. We had a pretty good band of snow for an hour or so. Now we await the wed storm and the potential weekend blockbuster (maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 UKMET actually looks more like the NOGAPS. Keeps the 850 0C line in southern PA. Still throws a good 20mm (0.79") or more of QPF for the southern 2/3 of PA. Euro is pretty sweet. Cold at surface too. No 30 that Joe speaks of. upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 5 inches as of my 12:30 measurement. If the radar holds, I should easily make to, or even beyond, the 6 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro is pretty sweet. Cold at surface too. No 30 that Joe speaks of. upper 20's. Good CAD signal and solid snow pack makes me think the concerns about significant icing are more warranted than usual, especially in the Great Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'd like to once again draw your attention to P008 (bottom row, second column). All snow for all of PA, and probably good ratios at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Basically at 6", started back up when I was finishing up shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the warmest frame of the UKMET at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How's euro look qpf wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Moderate snow for the past hour. We are closing in on 3" and looking for more tomorrow night and Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steve d tweeted we could see up to 3/4 in of ice in central pa. That's no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weekend storm GFS ensembles: gfsens.gif P008 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'd like to once again draw your attention to P008 (bottom row, second column). All snow for all of PA, and probably good ratios at that. p008.gif Meh...Only 2-3' of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Joking aside, nice to see 8/12 ensemble members in agreement of something significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 MDT will hit 7" methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think locally down here we'll escape the worst of it. Just warm enough to prevent major accretion. For you guys north and west this is looking real ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Joking aside, nice to see 8/12 ensemble members in agreement of something significant Agreed. Much better model and ensemble agreement for that storm that we had for this or Wednesday's storms at the same range... like night and day, really. Still some major details to be worked out, though, so it's certainly quite possible we could end up seeing nothing or not much out of it, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Decent burst of snow with the last area of snow working through, should be enough to send it over 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone have euro digits for tmrw night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We jumped up to 34.2 when rates stopped, we are back to steady snow and there is compaction. Few more nice bands left before it is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 just came in to to get a drink, take break for plowing. i measured 6.25" here at work in Harrisburg. still light to moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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