mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA and IAD mainly... BWI is a bit better at 51 ok, I figured, thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is perfect because it brings in heavier precip well before sun up so the column gets a chance to cool nicely by the falling snow in addition to cold air advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is long duration too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM still showing precip falling at 60 hrs with some more light stuff to fall it would be snow this could be a great event for DCA/BWI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_069_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Per 06z NAM BWI/IAD ~0.5 QPF.. should be all snow DCA ~0,7 QPF... should be all snow Good enough for general 3-5/4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Per 06z NAM BWI/IAD ~0.5 QPF.. should be all snow DCA ~0,7 QPF... should be all snow Good enough for general 3-5/4-6 the front .10 is not all snow, probably mixed, but likely lost at all location, maybe up to .20 at DCA just because it's DCA I'm basing this off the Accuwx pro mos numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 the front .10 is not all snow, probably mixed, but likely lost at all location, maybe up to .20 at DCA just because it's DCA I'm basing this off the Accuwx pro mos numbers Could be sleet? Entire column early on is just cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 this is BWI MON 1A 03-FEB 1.8 1.0 1021 96 100 0.03 562 546 MON 7A 03-FEB -0.6 -2.7 1024 92 100 0.17 560 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 this is BWI MON 1A 03-FEB 1.8 1.0 1021 96 100 0.03 562 546 MON 7A 03-FEB -0.6 -2.7 1024 92 100 0.17 560 542 definitely the first .03 is rain and then it transitions during the next 6 hr period so that's where I came up with a ball park .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 done for the night....g'nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC359 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014 <snip>.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL EJECT EWDTOWARD THE SRN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO WEAK SFCCYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW IS THENEXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SRNAPPALACHIANS SUN NGT AND THRU THE CAROLINAS ON MON. MEANWHILE...HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTSTATES. NLY FLOW AROUND THIS SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW COLDER/DRIER TODRAIN SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUN NGT AND MON.MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LGT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE MTSDURING THE EVE HRS SUN AND SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFTHE CWA OVNGT INTO MON MRNG. THERE IS GOOD ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TOSAY WITH REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WHILE THE ENTIRE AREASHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PRECIP...THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIP ISFAVORED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA (GIVEN THE SRN TRACK OF THELOW).LESSER CERTAINTY IS RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE RA/SN LINEAND PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHICH OBVIOUSLY HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ONSNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT. THE QUICKER THE COLDER AIRBECOMES ESTABLISHED RELATIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP THE GREATERTHE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE. FCST 1000-850 MBTHICKNESS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE INGOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT EITHER RA OR A RA/SN MIX AT THEONSET...BEFORE PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO AWET SNOW FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NWRN DC/BALTIMORE SUBURBS LATE SUNNGT AND ERY MON MRNG CLOSER TO THE CITIES. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND 00ZECMWF ARE FASTER WITH THE COOLING RELATIVE TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNSAND ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM...WHICH INCREASES FCSTCONFIDENCE A BIT.WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT THISSYSTEM TO BE WETTER THAN THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT FREQUENTLY MOVEDTHRU DURING THE PAST MONTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A QUICK MOVERUNDER FAST ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...THE SETUP IS BECOMING INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS A LARGEPART OF THE CWA. A HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN ABAND SOMEWHERE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RA-SN LINE AND ON THE NRNFRINGE OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BENEEDED. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS HEAVIERBAND WILL BE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 06z RGEM just a little juicy at 54 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 06z RGEM just a little juicy at 54 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054 How far does this model go out to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 well the 6z GFS just came in really wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do not think they look bad... this is the best run of the GFS yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's definitely wetter, but also warmer. And with the bulk of the precip falling during the day it looks like mostly rain with maybe a brief period of wet snow on the backend. I just don't have a good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA is like .9" but it's really hard to argue against rain possibility. Looks like another Loudoun-MoCo line event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6z NAM soundings are completely below freezing by 9z Monday for the BWI and DC area. Surface is about 31-32F it looks like. 6z GFS has a warm layer around 800mb at 12z Monday. Looks like the temp is right around freezing there...the layer is fairly thin. Rest of the column is below freezing. 800mb is safely below freezing by 18z, but most of the precip is done then. Probably can be over done with rates, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I remember like five days ago Wes said something like... watch that Monday system... that is the sneaky kind of system that could work in this pattern... he is so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I remember like five days ago Wes said something like... watch that Monday system... that is the sneaky kind of system that could work in this pattern... he is so good. It's also a sneaky little system that could break hearts and close schools needlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So what's the deal? I've got 300+ posts in the other thread to read and 110+ in this thread. Can someone just give me a quick summary instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 So what's the deal? I've got 300+ posts in the other thread to read and 110+ in this thread. Can someone just give me a quick summary instead?You should like where you are mappy, I'm thinking 4-7" for you if not more. Models are coming north but on most guidance youre still cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Damn, ok. Timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Damn, ok. Timing? Appears to be early am on Monday into daybreak. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Damn, ok. Timing?I'd say onset around the AM rush Monday. 9z? Lasting until about 18-21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So what's the deal? I've got 300+ posts in the other thread to read and 110+ in this thread. Can someone just give me a quick summary instead? Both the NAM and the GFS agree on a snow on Monday... temps are marginal and our area is on the Nothern Fringe. It is one of those trailing cold front things. The 6 z gfs "blue'd" everyone pretty good... I am surprised that there isnt more posts this morning... you what Ian says... once you get Blue'd all rational thought goes out the window... the NWS said several inches is possible. I am not sure about any other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The lack of posts this AM are two things, a lot of folks went to bed late after the Euro and a healthy skepticism that much of the area can overcome iffy temps for this to really work out. Lingering memories of 3/5 and 2/10 busts from 2013 in similar set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So, I'm assuming we got some optimistic model guidance last night? Optimistic enough to start thinking about a few inches some 20 miles north of Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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