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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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Can't believe how good the models look except for the GFS. A NAM and Euro blend would be awesome. Think folks not on the board are going to be shocked by this one.

Haha don't end up like Atlanta last week. At least NC folks were smart enough to shut things down.

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man I am right on the edge of this stuff here in rockingham, could be anything for me, my luck it would be all rain maybe mixing with some sleet depends on the the cold air aloft

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Damn, the Euro looks like all-snow here until maybe the very tail end (freezing drizzle?), though there could be a nasty warm nose somewhere in there to ruin it.  Very nice.

What do you see for over here, James? Any mixing issues on the Euro?

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Total gso?

 

5-6", give or take.  There's actually another tenth or two that falls as something other than snow, either IP or ZR.  I'm not sure which.  850s never get above 1C, though, and are definitely colder than previous runs.  Overall QPF is about 0.7-0.8".  The Canadian is a little better for us with maybe 6-7".

 

The 12z GEFS mean shows ~0.75" QPF for us.  Of course, you've probably seen the NAM's 10"+ glory run.

 

I'm going to go ahead and assume that the models will underdo the overrunning and we'll end up with more QPF than modeled.  :weenie:

 

What do you see for over here, James? Any mixing issues on the Euro?

 

Probably like 4-5" before some significant icing.

 

I'm a bit confused, though, because DT's StormVista maps he posted on his Facebook page looked a little better as far as temperatures went compared to WeatherBell, hence my thought that it might be all-snow.

 

One interesting thing to note is that we're looking at a 24+ hour event because of the lingering light stuff (probably freezing drizzle or maybe pingers) on the back side.

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Saddle up boys and girls, this one's going to be good. I've made my preparations.

 

1)   Sled out of storage... check

2)   Milk and bread run... check

3)   Propane for the grill... check

4)   Gas logs tested... check

5)   Snow shovel located... check

6)   Salt for the driveway... check

 

Now bring it on!

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Thanks sir. I figured there's a warm nose in there somewhere. There almost always is in these types of situations. Anyway, it looks like a good one shaping up. Glad I didn't throw in the towel. If it still looks good after the 12Zs come in tomorrow, I will have to go all in as well. :)

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FFC Update

000

FXUS62 KFFC 081859

AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

159 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY FAST MOVING

SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THAT WILL MOVE

ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND AT

THIS TIME THE MOIST LAYER IS CONFINED TO A REGION OF 3000 TO 5000

FEET. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A

FLURRY OR SPRINKLE TO NORTH GA. CLOUDS...AND ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES

SHOULD BE EXITING SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING MAKING FOR A

PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE

INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK

REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

17

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MONDAY NIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE

ADVECTS INTO AREA AND THERMAL PROFILES IN NORTH GEORGIA STILL SUPPORT

SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE LEFT MAJORITY OF REMAINING LONG

TERM PERIOD ALONE AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY DIVERGE IN

UPPER WAVE EVOLUTIONS AND MOISTURE FIELDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT

SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS

DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

 

Humm

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Thanks sir. I figured there's a warm nose in there somewhere. There almost always is in these types of situations. Anyway, it looks like a good one shaping up. Glad I didn't throw in the towel. If it still looks good after the 12Zs come in tomorrow, I will have to go all in as well. :)

 

Well, there could be a warm nose somewhere other than 850 mb that I can't see, so I can't guarantee I'm right, haha.

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ATL / NGa residents certainly will.  The media mets are checked out for the weekend.  The first most people hear of this is going to be sometime during the day on Monday. I just checked all 3 of the major local network affliates, and all 3 sites currently predict "a chance of showers" on Tuesday and Wednesday.  None of this will get updated until they all come back to work Monday.

 

Definitely doing my grocery shopping for the week tomorrow.  Once Monday rolls around and all the commuters get an earful of potential storm (even if it eventually fizzles), you won't be able to find a loaf of bread or case of water within 300 miles. :)

Yea FFC does not think there is any concerns.  In fact they have low confidence.  Guess they are only looking at the GFS and nothing else.  I am with you that people could once again be caught off guard with this one.  I would rather know that there could be weather problems than not.  Now ATL could be on the edge but I live in Loganville and the weather always seems different here.  Not to mention it is not just an ATL issue.

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Yes ! 3 on 3 Wednesday in CLT. :)

First of all, I'm never the last one picked for any sport, EVER.

 

Secondly, you have now triggered a true basketball story from me that will serve as a short break from storm related posts.

 

Back when I was AP in the middle school, all of the eighth grade was in the gym after lunch for physical activity. Being an inner city school a basketball game was involved.  When I came in to supervise the boys started to harass me a bit about playing.  I remember one saying, "white men can't jump". Getting into the spirit of the trash talk I told them I had not played any basketball since the day I got kicked out of the NBA. 

 

They, of course, hooted and hollered asking me why I was thrown out.  I told them it was because I never missed a shot and they said it made the game boring.  A whole lot of hooting and hollering followed that one.  One of them tossed me the ball and said, "show us".  I already knew what I would say when I missed, "That's the first shot I've ever missed, now I'm depressed" and I would walk off with my head down while they laughed.  So, I was at the top of the key.  I turned away from the basket, walked about three steps toward half court, turned my head to look back while still walking and launched a left handed hook shot that almost hit the ceiling and dropped straight down through the basket without even touching the rim.

 

Dead, jaw dropping silence.  I managed to keep a straight face, "See what I mean?" and I just kept walking out of the gym.  I was a legend at that school for the next three years. Oh, and one more thing.  I suck at basketball.  It's probably my worst sport.  I never took another shot.

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Yea FFC does not think there is any concerns.  In fact they have low confidence.  Guess they are only looking at the GFS and nothing else.  I am with you that people could once again be caught off guard with this one.  I would rather know that there could be weather problems than not.  Now ATL could be on the edge but I live in Loganville and the weather always seems different here.  Not to mention it is not just an ATL issue.

Until the gfs comes on board, you can expect them not to be. Such is the case with a lot of nws offices though. But you can rest assured they are going to want to be right this time around after that cluster**** that just happened.

 

I do not like how unspecific they are being but I don't blame them for being catious at this point. There are a lot of unknowns right now that could mean the difference between something truly special or pretty much nothing at all.

 

On a side note, You know what the irony of all this is? This storm will occur  as the warmest air in months over takes most of the US. :arrowhead:

 

I just wonder how long it would stick around if it hit during the middle of one of the numerous cold shots and patterns this winter. 

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I agree with you guys. No one in Atlanta even has a clue that we could get winter weather. Might want to start sounding some conservative alarms at the very least or there are going to be A LOT of surprised people.

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First of all, I'm never the last one picked for any sport, EVER.

 

Secondly, you have now triggered a true basketball story from me that will serve as a short break from storm related posts.

 

Back when I was AP in the middle school, all of the eighth grade was in the gym after lunch for physical activity. Being an inner city school a basketball game was involved.  When I came in to supervise the boys started to harass me a bit about playing.  I remember one saying, "white men can't jump". Getting into the spirit of the trash talk I told them I had not played any basketball since the day I got kicked out of the NBA. 

 

They, of course, hooted and hollered asking me why I was thrown out.  I told them it was because I never missed a shot and they said it made the game boring.  A whole lot of hooting and hollering followed that one.  One of them tossed me the ball and said, "show us".  I already knew what I would say when I missed, "That's the first shot I've ever missed, now I'm depressed" and I would walk off with my head down while they laughed.  So, I was at the top of the key.  I turned away from the basket, walked about three steps toward half court, turned my head to look back while still walking and launched a left handed hook shot that almost hit the ceiling and dropped straight down through the basket without even touching the rim.

 

Dead, jaw dropping silence.  I managed to keep a straight face, "See what I mean?" and I just kept walking out of the gym.  I was a legend at that school for the next three years. Oh, and one more thing.  I suck at basketball.  It's probably my worst sport.  I never took another shot.

 

Man, do you have the best stories, or what?

 

Not up to me.

 

All right then, I offer the first vote to go ahead and make jburns a full-fledged moderator.  Who's with me?  How do we make this official?  If he's already got the special powers, then let's get him the special color-coding to go along with it.

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All right then, I offer the first vote to go ahead and make jburns a full-fledged moderator.  Who's with me?  How do we make this official?  If he's already got the special powers, then let's get him the special color-coding to go along with it.

 

Don't.  Just let it be.

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Okay, I'll respect your wishes and drop the campaign.  That's the shortest-lived campaign I've ever been apart of.  :)

I appreciate it, but there are people who take care of this type thing.  It's best to leave it to them.

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Uh oh. When NCEP puts you inside one of their conservative crayon circles and their tiny probabilities you know it's almost game on

Just what I was telling the wife down here, Cary...

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Everyone better get some sleep before Monday. We will all drive our wives crazy by Thursday, watching radars, peeping out doors and windows. Exciting times man. Some people maybe backing up cargo trailers up to clear out grocery stores. There's nothing like epic winter storms in the south. I guess the weather channel will have there first siamese twin storm system, if this storm comes in two phases. Love snow and sleet, just hoping minimum freezing rain. Lots of window time of snow if forecast verifies. :snowing:  

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Yeah.. that's more like it wrt the CMC snow totals. So we've got the NAM/Canadian with a juiced up front wave, the GFS super suppressed, and the Euro more balanced with the two waves,

In other words...GAME ON! :+)

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Good story JBURNS ! Our local crack staff of meteorologists on our NBC affiliate has written : " we could see some showers on Tuesday, possibly mixing with a little freezing rain in the afternoon " WoW!!! I know that could happen,but no model is showing that now!! Where do they get this stuff! He is the chief met , also!!!

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Looks like another RDU screwjob. One of two things will happen: (1) weaker wave with snow/ice across upper south and the southern parts of NC with some token crap over northern NC, or (2) wave trends stronger and goes further north, putting RDU in the sleet/zr/rain zone. Yawn. Wake me up next winter.

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