Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 discuss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z euro has 3+ from kblm south, very similar to it's run a couple nights ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 we could get more snow out of this event than feb 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A nice few inches wouldnt hurt. This threat did deserve a thread so great work brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 we could get more snow out of this event than feb 5th I agree, 2-5", then a blizzard next weekend, lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 we could get more snow out of this event than feb 5th Thinking the Same Forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thinking the Same Forky X3 and would be happy with that over a potential ice storm which lets be honest is ALOT worse than a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree, 2-5", then a blizzard next weekend, lets do it. If that would be the case, then I would hope the 2/5 storm cuts so far to our west that all we see is partly cloudy skies with temps in the 40s. That would be better for our snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 granted nothing has happened yet, it's funny how some of our storms literally appear out of thin air 3-5 days prior to the event. I think models continue their creep north with this one. Euro had it, lost it and now has brought it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The NAM looks like it would be way north than the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Th 18Z NAM is more than enough west at 84 hours, even with its bias considered that if you de-amplified it markedly that would still be far enough north to be a snow event for most of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM at HR84 Looks Potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does it look too warm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That is very good for several reasons. Better chance at snow Mon, or if its actually too far N/W and cuts to an extent it will help with the following event to suppress heights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does it look too warm though? It does but the NAM is always too far NW at this time frame, you can likely shift its idea 100-150 miles SE, bottom line though that still likely means the GFS is currently too far SE and the Euro may be as well although its likely closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Th 18Z NAM is more than enough west at 84 hours, even with its bias considered that if you de-amplified it markedly that would still be far enough north to be a snow event for most of the area... This could be a nice snow event if there is a favorable track. Looks fairly moisture laden as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does it look too warm though? Those 850`s are pushing towards the coast , look at the SLP from 78 hours as its heading ENE , its pulling in colder air . That warmth is what`s left of Sundays 50 degrees , The cold is pressing .The surface is cooling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 upton for monday: "A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%." hard to go wrong with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I know Snowgoose loves when the Nam is super amped.I just worried bc sunday will be pretty balmy here . Like Brian was saying it is pretty nuts with these models in the 80-96 hour time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Even the SREFS look pretty good in their far range. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At hr 60 you are plus 8 around CNJ NYC area by 84 hours you are getting to this , lets hope it keeps pressing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 18z NAM looks like it is setup to deliver a heavy snow to the area. This snuck up on us, didn't it ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What's interesting about the 18Z NAM is that the temps between the surface and 850 mB gets colder every hour through HR 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 18z NAM looks like it is setup to deliver a heavy snow to the area. This snuck up on us, didn't it ?! The Saturday system going so far NW over NY as it does and then continuing NE into Canada causes the trailing cold front to take ages to clear southeast and as a result the entire thermal boundary is not pushed that far off the coast and the ensuing system can then get close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In about a day or so, we will be shaking our heads thinking "wow, we just got NAM'd" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 18z NAM looks like it is setup to deliver a heavy snow to the area. This snuck up on us, didn't it ?! Hard to put any stock in the NAM. But it still might be worth watching. I noted a few days ago how a lot of the times it isn't events we track way far in advance that end up hitting up, but rather ones that were projected to miss us, and then suddenly come out of nowhere within 100 hours. Considering I wasn't even expecting a flakr out of this, an inch or two would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I know Snowgoose loves when the Nam is super amped.I just worried bc sunday will be pretty balmy here . Like Brian was saying it is pretty nuts with these models in the 80-96 hour time frames. Makes you wonder about all there people jumping off the boat over a 144 hour forecast, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hard to put any stock in the NAM. But it still might be worth watching. I noted a few days ago how a lot of the times it isn't events we track way far in advance that end up hitting up, but rather ones that were projected to miss us, and then suddenly come out of nowhere within 100 hours. Considering I wasn't even expecting a flakr out of this, an inch or two would be awesome. The same essentially applies to our severe t-storm / tornado episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hard to put any stock in the NAM. But it still might be worth watching. I noted a few days ago how a lot of the times it isn't events we track way far in advance that end up hitting up, but rather ones that were projected to miss us, and then suddenly come out of nowhere within 100 hours. Considering I wasn't even expecting a flakr out of this, an inch or two would be awesome. This could be a nice event if the track is favorable. This doesn't look like a moisture starved system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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