Saturn510 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Makes you wonder about all there people jumping off the boat over a 144 hour forecast, huh? Yes. Everyone gets so worked up. Especially this year. These models cant give you an accurate forecast 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 System looks warm at the bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Makes you wonder about all there people jumping off the boat over a 144 hour forecast, huh?Exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 System looks warm at the bl The cold air is coming in with the front...nam is just a little slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 it won't matter how warm it gets the day before unless it's an all out torch...Saturday January 10th 1965 was a damp mild day with a max in the mid 50's...A cold front passed around midnight and a wave riding the front brought snow into the area during the mid morning and dropped 7" on Brooklyn before ending before nightfall...(not forecast)...there are many other examples of snowfalls after a mild day...with that said there are no guarantees for this storm or the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This could be a nice event if the track is favorable. This doesn't look like a moisture starved system. Sure can. It's nice having all these events to track. You have to figure at least 1 of these storms will deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Out of the 4 upcoming systems....1 will definitely not be a snow maker, 2 will probably not be significant snow makers, and 1 more than likely will. However, there is the CHANCE that 3 out of 4 could. Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS looks like it will be south of 12z. The front looks to clear the coast faster and the confluence to the north looks stronger, both good signs for mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS looks like it will be south of 12z. The front looks to clear the coast faster and the confluence to the north looks stronger, both good signs for mid-week. NAM Disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM Disagrees So does the Euro, So does the Canadian . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM Disagrees NAM is also known for being overamped/warm. one must take its bias into account as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As many have suspected, the 18z DGEX does indeed show this area getting the brunt of the precipitation on Monday, and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As many have suspected, the 18z DGEX does indeed show this area getting the brunt of the precipitation on Monday, and lots of it. Seems people are more interested in other fantasy storms.. 150 hours away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z DGEX for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Seems people are more interested in other fantasy storms.. 150 hours away.. It's on a lonely island all by itself NAM/DGEX but the GGEM and Euro both have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Op GFS wants no part of it at all still which is surprising, the 12Z ensembles were not bad however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREFs at 87 hours...the last 2 winter events, including the storm here and the southern US storm they were surprisingly accurate at the end of their range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREFs at 87 hours...the last 2 winter events, including the storm here and the southern US storm they were surprisingly accurate at the end of their range... looks n/w to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREFs at 87 hours...the last 2 winter events, including the storm here and the southern US storm they were surprisingly accurate at the end of their range... agreed, it was pretty amazing to see the SREF plumes show .5 - 1.5" snow area wide out at hr 87 for the last event verify very accurately. Even the obscene amounts 14 -15" for the 21st event verified. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's An ensemble Mean so it has an advantage! SREF is basically a bunch of Models combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's An ensemble Mean so it has an advantage! SREF is basically a bunch of Models combinedIt's also short range and 87 hours is far from that. That said, agreed with SnowGoose they've done well of late. That and SnowGoose nailed the near miss we just had days beforehand and has been consistently reminding us to lay attention to this wave... Props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam looks more suppressed and colder than 18z through 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea the NAM doesn't look so good this run. That's not surprising considering Mon. is at the end of its range and it was the NW outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea the NAM doesn't look so good this run. That's not surprising considering Mon. is at the end of its range and it was the NW outlier. would look pretty good I think extrapolated beyond 84 hrs (lol), especially for southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea the NAM doesn't look so good this run. That's not surprising considering Mon. is at the end of its range and it was the NW outlier. Now its in line with the Canadian and Euro, not a bad run its much colder. We also had a NW all winter on the models so this might follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's prob coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00Z NAM is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks really good area wide if extrapolated..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00Z NAM is further south. we got some buffer room with this, add in the inevitable last minute NW trend too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks really good area wide if extrapolated..... Looks very good , if you run it through you can see its aimed NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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