user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good point....i won't get excited about it, yet, but of course I'll be watching the models Yea we still have lots of time, things will change. we should have a better idea over the next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The NAM has not had a NW bias this year except in the extreme short term with he precip field. This was the 84 hour NAM with the southern storm and then this was 12 hours out. So making an exact forecast right now of a hit or miss is not prudent Personally I think weather models are far too complex to make simplified descriptions of their biases. A limitation of the programming, algorithms, schemes, or boundary conditions might result in a NW error in one case, and a SE error in another... at least that's how I see it. The problem with the NAM is that it verifies much worse than the global models towards the end of its range. Its solutions at this range are often way out of line with other guidance, only to shift significantly towards the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 0z NAM is flatter at H5, with increased separation between northern and southern waves, and further south with its precip shield. Its extension, the DGEX had about 1" liquid at NYC. The 0z NAM by comparison looks like a scraper. But as modeled, there would probably be an area of SNJ, maybe up to CNJ that would get light to possibly moderate precip (probably snow). But this was a clear step toward the model consensus of a scraper or a miss south, and a less significant storm overall. As Wes mentioned in the ma thread, check out the 250-300mb jet structure ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It`s not a direct massive hit , the point is over the last 24 hours this has popped up on the NAM EURO and Canadian . If at 0z the SLP ticked 50 miles S, i`m still inclined to think its not likely to be P/C on Monday and should be watched . This has sharpened up in the last 24 hours and its not impossible it continues over the next 24 to 48 hours considering we just saw this happen . The pulsing of the SE ridge and the PV have probably yet to be solved . So to me the precip is aimed NE , if the fringe is CNJ , NYC or N . its not far off . Seen by more than 1 model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I`m in Colts Neck that kool with you ? I'm in Albany, that cool with you? My only request is it would be nice if you guys would put your locations in your profiles. Wintersgrasp, too. It makes for much better discussion and obs threads to know where people are posting from. Thanks. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As Wes mentioned in the ma thread, check out the 250-300mb jet structure ;-) It's nice. 18z had a great structure too. Just a little stronger and further north. The GFS doesn't have it. I think the MA crew is excited about seeing a big blob of blue on the QPF chart. I would be too. I hope it's real and that the mid-levels align to allow this thing to track NE instead of E to get more people in the game. I'm glad the Euro was so far north earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The best upward motion on the 0z NAM seems to be Between DC to just S of NYC . Not saying its right , but it is modeled that way . And 24 hours ago , it wasn`t there . Just saying watch the trend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z GFS so far looks weak and relatively disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 gfs looks to be working with much more moisture this run but h5 is blah - deff much more south than the nam @ 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip weak and confined to the southeast through hr 84, barely flurries in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip exists stage right, barely anything from VA northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip exists stage right, barely anything from VA northward. yea, I would really like to have seen the gfs pick this up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The best upward motion on the 0z NAM seems to be Between DC to just S of NYC . Not saying its right , but it is modeled that way . And 24 hours ago , it wasn`t there . Just saying watch the trend . The NAM doesn't go out to 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yea, I would really like to have seen the gfs pick this up alreadyI actually like it right where it's at. Just about every SWFE and overrunning event we've seen this season four to six days out, the GFS has shifted the precip field a few hundred miles north. Specifically in December as well as the Jan 2nd event. It would not surprise me to see this move north in the coming days. Not etched in stone but I can see moving more north for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The NAM doesn't go out to 108 hours. THANKS , Talking about the GFS Euro and Canadian , a day ago , they were S with the precip , today they came N Not sure who`s on the wrong side of the envelope the NAM or the GFS , im sure you saw VV that's what I saw when I said it was aimed NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GGEM says the GFS is on crack for Monday. This looks great for Philly southward. Congrats NJ once again.http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GGEM says the GFS is on crack for Monday. This looks great for Philly southward. Congrats NJ once again. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg I still think this is something to be watched. As progressive as this winter has been, it also hasn't been about suppression. This could also be a last minute north-trender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still think this is something to be watched. As progressive as this winter has been, it also hasn't been about suppression. This could also be a last minute north-trender. Without a doubt. If GFS had the wave as depicted with NAM and GGEM, she'd have gone north with less confluence over northern Maine. Where as the models with the wave have a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good to see NAVGEM NOGAPS being way north of GFS,rest of guidance. It has 5 to 10mm for Philly and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think this is going to be a nice event. Strongly feel the gfs starts trending as we get closer. Remember it shifted hundreds of miles west with the last system under like 36-48 hrs or so. Good to know there's a peaceful thread among the chaos in the other threads. I'll laugh if this event that most are overlooking produces significant snows. The Nam looked good even though it's the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow Euro is looking pretty amped up for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Boom Euro , 6 at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Boom Euro Hearing it's warm though. Or just for Maryland area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Boom Euro Slightly more descriptive would be nice, although I like the sound of "Boom Euro." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hearing it's warm though. Or just for Maryland area? KNYC hour 84 850 `s minus 2 - 90 Hour 850`s Minus 4 . Surface Temps around 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00Z Euro has 5-6" of snow for Southern NYC and 6-7" of snow for Northern NYC/NE NJ/NNJ/NLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00Z Euro has 5-6" of snow for Southern NYC and 6-7" of snow for Northern NYC/NE NJ/NNJ/NLI. How far north does the accumulating snow get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How far north does the accumulating snow get? About 4-5" of snow for Putman County. Also, about 1" of snow gets to the Northern Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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