MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GGEM is further north than the Nam and GFS for the monday storm. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Almost similiar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just saw last night's Euro. Wow. The new GGEM looks decent for southern areas too. Everything seems to depend on the strength of the little southern stream s/w that is progged to be near MO and AR on Sunday night. And more importantly its interaction with several shortwaves in the northern stream. A slight change in the orientation of the flow and the sharpness in the trof early on... say day 2.5... will make a big difference in how far north (by 100s of miles) and how intense the precip associated with this wave is. My heart is rooting for a Euro-like solution but my head is predicting something closer to the GFS/NAM (or a hair north). This looks to be the only wave for the next week or so where the southern stream trof axis is favorable for the east coast. Unfortunately the wave interference is ugly and therefore the wave amplitude is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GGEM is further north than the Nam and GFS for the monday storm. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Almost similiar to the Euro. I beat you too it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEFS don't look very exciting. A few bring a little light QPF up to NYC. Most are misses south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEFS don't look very exciting. A few bring a little light QPF up to NYC. Most are misses south. Do you think its missing the strength of the SE ridge which will be prevalent all week and with 45 - 50 Sunday , it suppresses this in the next 24 hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So which one will be correct. GGEM/euro. Vs Nam/GFS.. if the euro shows it north again.. something is not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Through 54 hours the Euro is still more amped with the back end shortwave than the GFS...this is the one which will eventually trigger lift for precipitation with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Do you think its missing the strength of the SE ridge which will be prevalent all week and with 45 - 50 Sunday , it suppresses this in the next 24 hours ? I'm hoping the GFS is a little too strong with the troffing over the Lakes and most importantly a little too weak with the shortwave south of New Mexico at 48hrs. This southern stream shortwave, although weak, should have a Gulf connection! If it is initially a little sharper than the the GFS is modeling it, the whole precip field could get much further north... like up into S IN, and OH. That's what the Euro and a few of the SREF members showed. I don't personally think the strength of the ridge in the Atlantic has much impact. But of course the entire field of trofs and ridges are all connected... and a change in one affects the others somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So far it looks to be coming in line with the GGEM...not at all similar to the very suppressed solutions but not as amped as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm hoping the GFS is a little too strong with the troffing over the Lakes and most importantly a little too weak with the shortwave south of New Mexico at 48hrs. This southern stream shortwave, although weak, should have a Gulf connection! If it is initially a little sharper than the the GFS is modeling it, the whole precip field could get much further north... like up into S IN, and OH. That's what the Euro and a few of the SREF members showed. I don't personally think the strength of the ridge in the Atlantic has much impact. But of course the entire field of trofs and ridges are all connected... and a change in one affects the others somehow. Thank you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A few hours sooner and it could start snowing before the game ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is a pretty solid hit, it looks nothing like the GFS or the NAM which is pretty scary considering the range we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Through 78 hours definitely south/less amped than 00z but still a nice hit..looks maybe to be north of the GGEM still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A little south of the 0z run but still a good hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Through 78 hours definitely south/less amped than 00z but still a nice hit..looks maybe to be north of the GGEM still. If you don't mind me asking, how far north does the precip get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is 2-4, 4-6 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So Euro/GGEM vs. GFS/Nam. What do the UK and JMA show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If you don't mind me asking, how far north does the precip get? Moderate precip only makes it to extreme southern CT. Light stuff up to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ya just get that feeling the Euro is back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is 2-4, 4-6 type deal. Where exactly? anything north of rt80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Moderate precip only makes it to extreme southern CT. Light stuff up to Boston. I'm sure it will still trend a little more south as the timing gets close. SNJ to Long Island seems like a good place to be for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is about .40" for NYC. Sharper cut-off to the north. Less than .30" north of Tappen-Zee Bridge. .50"+ qpf over CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Have to state the obvious, the euro is indeed a couple steps back from it's 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For you I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Around 4" of snow for NYC and The 5 Boroughs! I would take that any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ya just get that feeling the Euro is back... can't say that for sure yet till it verifies on Monday - will be interesting to see what all the real METS in the various media outlets and NWS say later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 can't say that for sure yet till it verifies on Monday - will be interesting to see what all the real METS in the various media outlets and NWS say later on They will hug the GFS just like they always do for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Around 4" of snow for NYC and The 5 Boroughs! I would take that any day What does it show for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They will hug the GFS just like they always do for the most part. Almost always true. They have some sort of fetish for GFS material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They will hug the GFS just like they always do for the most part. What? In forecast discos from this morning they were tossing the GFS. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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