stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Should be some good cancelling here in a minute Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Should be some good cancelling here in a minute Northern stream vort that provides the confluence is way slower this run and the southern stream vort that produces the storm is much faster = cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Should be some good cancelling here in a minute Yup, she;s a cutter! lol. I'm still 10000% in. It'll crush us at 18z again. Then take it away...repeat repeat. I would hope people would wait till we're under 72 hours before making rash moves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS looks to screw us with the D8 system. High moving off Run is faster and the storm is out in front of the real cold hp diving out of canada. No helpful confluence. We should be back in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS looks to screw us with the D8 system. High moving off shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Going to start the severe obs thread, will be requesting soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gonna be hard to be more epic than Feb 2010. I bet I don't see much snow from the "epic pattern." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's a viable solution. Wait for ensembles, euro, eps, 18z, yadayada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 unbelievable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh...great. What's happening now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 believable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 it does get cold again after our 50 degree rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS shows a couple more snowstorms in fantasy range. I think even if the Day 8-9 threat turns into a rainy cutter there's still plenty of reasons to be bullish with snow the 1st half of Feb. As for Day 8-9, I think if it does cut we'd have chances for some front end snow/ice before it's all washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS shows a couple more snowstorms in fantasy range. I think even if the Day 8-9 threat turns into a rainy cutter there's still plenty of reasons to be bullish with snow the 1st half of Feb. As for Day 8-9, I think if it does cut we'd have chances for some front end snow/ice before it's all washed away. im going with the euro....or whatever models gives me the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS shows a couple more snowstorms in fantasy range. I think even if the Day 8-9 threat turns into a rainy cutter there's still plenty of reasons to be bullish with snow the 1st half of Feb. As for Day 8-9, I think if it does cut we'd have chances for some front end snow/ice before it's all washed away. I think front end ice is a decent bet. It's still too far out to say what it will do definitively but I'd bet on a cutter or OH valley track than one south of us. To me the pattern looks more like the dec pattern than the Jan one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think front end ice is a decent bet. It's still too far out to say what it will do definitively but I'd bet on a cutter or OH valley track than one south of us. To me the pattern looks more like the dec pattern than the Jan one. There are no euro ens analogs that give us a big storm..The GFS solution from last night seemed goofy with so much ridging in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll take the gfs pre 240 if i can have the gfs post 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There are no euro ens analogs that give us a big storm..The GFS solution from last night seemed goofy with so much ridging in the east All the gefs members showing a wrapped up storm rained on us. Makes total sense given the heights here. I'm not sure how the euro is putting out such unanimous snow solutions with its members. I suppose it's possible but likely is another story. We can get some front end stuff. That's fine. We can also do ok with a much weaker solution. As for the monday-tues thing, that popped up out of nowhere so either the euro is seeing something real that all other guidance is missing or it was just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, GEFS doesn't support the op as a whole. There are some cutters in the mix but most do a good job with some front end stuff. There's actually more decent solutions than the 6z gefs This run of 4 members is what I'm hugging until the euro comes out. If the euro bails the I can revert back to these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pretty giant signal on the ensembles, HP looks to be in a really good spot. EVEN with a cutter there could still be some frozen precip at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are due for a massive sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS are almost uniform on having a storm around Day 8. I'd say most are colder than the Op. Should be an entertaining next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There are no euro ens analogs that give us a big storm..The GFS solution from last night seemed goofy with so much ridging in the east I shouldn't have weighed in since I had been writing an article this morning and hadn't looked closely at the euro ens mean. I see what you mean. The surface on it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS are almost uniform on having a storm around Day 8. I'd say most are colder than the Op. Should be an entertaining next week. I only saw 3 pretty crappy ones too. Really wound with limited front end stuff. The rest looked pretty good for some winter. Front side of west track stuff is fun. Hanging on for deal life until the first ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS are almost uniform on having a storm around Day 8. I'd say most are colder than the Op. Should be an entertaining next week. And when the Euro crushes us in about 45 minutes, people will forget this one GFS run. Don't be a pendulum people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And when the Euro crushes us in about 45 minutes, people will forget this one GFS run. Don't be a pendulum people. Absolutely. Sometimes it can be maddening to read some of the comments in here with each cycle changing back and forth. Yesterday was particularly awful. I know there was a lot of trolling for fun in there too, but lost amongst all the "cancel!!" posts was the fact that the GFS was looking not too bad overall, and it still isn't. Even if the Euro comes in looking similar to the 12Z GFS for the event next week, we can't just throw up our hands and assume winter is over. Which is why it's better to look more at the overall pattern and the ensembles at this range, and what might be supported. There's a lot on the table to consider and it's looking like a complex set-up. Heck, you can almost consider the op run to be a type of "high resolution ensemble member" itself in the medium range; it's one solution. That's not exactly true from a modeling standpoint, I know, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I only saw 3 pretty crappy ones too. Really wound with limited front end stuff. The rest looked pretty good for some winter. Front side of west track stuff is fun. Hanging on for deal life until the first ping. Yup, and those are certainly viable solutions...the op GFS obviously was similar. The solutions that are better for snow (or combination of snow/ice) are likewise just as possible. I don't know at this point what is more likely, but it is nice that there are only 3 wound-up cutter-like solutions showing up in the ensembles. Hopefully, an indication that that solution is an overdone outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro gives us 1/2" or so on Super bowl sunday...not sure if this is worth watching (of course I will) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro gives us 1/2" or so on Super bowl sunday...not sure if this is worth watching (of course I will) i think the game will be worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 EURO is a cutter for the big one next week, ugh....still a long ways out though, the confluence was not far enough east, PV as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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