WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6z GFS gave New Bern 14.1" per Bufkit data, and 3/10" of ZR on the tail end just for good measure. ILM was a ZR storm, 0.8" SN, 0.62" IP, and 1.18" ZR, yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That sure is a heck of a system on the 12z off the CA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 holy **** the plumes just lost their mind for clt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 261323 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1321Z SUN JAN 26 2014 THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH 13 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...9 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. Of those 71 I wonder how much sampling was able to take place with the ULL just of the CA. It's not just a few skewing it either. quite a few of the members shifted west and wetter. Whats interesting though from what you posted yesterday as well there is still that one member buries the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 7 SREF members give CLT 6" or more. 4(!) give the city 10" or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Of course the NAM takes a big shift east with our digging energy from Canada. Not as strong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 holy **** the plumes just lost their mind for clt Right... not only CLT. There is 8 members showing anywhere from 4-12" with the mean of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah, don't like the look of this .... Of course the NAM takes a big shift east with our digging energy from Canada. Not as strong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Considering where the ATL area was yesterday, I be pretty thrilled if the SREF mean came to fruition. I'm pretty close to the .25 line. Any further NW shift would really give us something good. I'm still pretty skeptical right now, though. Need to see the NAM and GFS come more NW. Thanks for the play by play everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The NAM was the only one looking good the last few days, and now the big models are starting to trend NW, the NAM goes east? Hopefully a blip, or we start to un- hug the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 From Mr. East 45 MIN ago. Check out @eastwx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/427428193260142592 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Figured I would go ahead and show the 9Z RPM since it's within 72 hours now. The interesting thing is that it has the snow starting in eastern North Carolina Tuesday morning and fills everything in back to the southwest. That'll be something to watch. Snow totals through the entire run (72 hours): Here's a simulated radar when the snow/ice/rain cover the most area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Maybe. On the 18 it looks as strong just not as tightly wound. Of course the NAM takes a big shift east with our digging energy from Canada. Not as strong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am right at the sharpest part of the gradient. gfs gives me between 0.10 to 0.25. N. 30 miles northwest is almost nothing, while 30 miles southeast there could be 0.50 to 0.75. Nam is even sharper (and i'm right on the edge of accumulation. And that's the case all along the back edge. Literally the smallest of shifts either way will make or break it. . And that really goes for all of us right on the line from ga to nc. There will be some very heart broken folks no matter where it sets up while others are going to be jumping for joy just a few miles away. For those on the back edge, the good news is if we see a shift northwest comparable to what the 0z and 06z did, we/us will be in business. edit to say 09z sref looks like between 0.25 to 0.50 here. Ugh I am so nervous. I haven't been this nervous in a long time. I feel like I'm 8 years old lol A lot of company in that boat with you! 9Z Mean puts us Mnt folk in the game which we have been on the outside looking in so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yea northern energy a good bit weaker for sure. Southern vort may be a little north of its 6z tho I guess that's the only positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z SREF for RDU Goldsboro and Fayetteville look similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 At 21 hours, not much change with southern energy on 12z NAM vs. 6z, but northern energy weaker and further east a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Of course the NAM takes a big shift east with our digging energy from Canada. Not as strong either. What hour you see? Maybe. On the 18 it looks as strong just not as tightly wound. The height contours are realtively unchanged... dont think its east. If anything NS maybe slower in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 What hour you see? The height contours are realtively unchanged... dont think its east. If anything NS maybe slower in Canada I'm at hour 30. It's def. east. Finally starting to gain some steam now. I'll hold out judgment till later but so far I'm not liking the look of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 From Mr. East 45 MIN ago. Check out @eastwx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/427428193260142592 You can't trust a guy who's name is East! LOL!! Kidding. I still think we're good for a few here in RDU based on what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Being using this site to compare runs. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Never knew it existed until lookout posted some maps from it yesterday.. What hour you see? The height contours are realtively unchanged... dont think its east. If anything NS maybe slower in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm at hour 30. It's def. east. Finally starting to gain some steam now. I'll hold out judgment till later but so far I'm not liking the look of this.Guarantee you'll like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z SREF for RDU rdu.JPG Goldsboro and Fayetteville look similar As does Hickory, with 5 members showing ~8 inches or more. The SREF mean is up to 2 inches for KHKY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 One thing about 12z NAM is that it actually looks pretty similar to the 0z. The 6z had shifted the northern energy even farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Guarantee you'll like this I will def. take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think climatology alone would suggest that shift but of course, time will tell. I just my mom in Marion, SC that she might get snow. She laughed at me dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Idk if it's me but I really like the look of the southern vort @33 seems to be moving along I guess well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 One thing about 12z NAM is that it actually looks pretty similar to the 0z. The 6z had shifted the northern energy even farther west. Yea def. see that. Maybe a touch weaker with that northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 QC, can you post that link? This is the link for SREF plumes for Hickory. Click on the little dots to get other cities in the map below. They just upgraded the site yesterday, I believe. It looks a little different than it used to. I like it. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140126&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=HKY&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.42906773122139&mLON=-79.288746484375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 QC, can you post that link? www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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