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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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18z GFS continues that big thump (especially I-90 area and north into SNH) idea. You would get a pretty exciting 6 hours or so before any risk of change. I love those two...just like 0.5-0.75" QPF in 4-6 hours with 0.2"/hr bucket rates at times. Those are always exciting and have some good staying power.

I want you to get blasted in the 2/4-2/6 storm. (I'm skiing that weekend) But only if we get the Day 10/11 storm on the benchmark of course. :/

Either way..its NNE's time to shine. Good luck!

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18z GFS continues that big thump (especially I-90 area and north into SNH) idea. You would get a pretty exciting 6 hours or so before any risk of change. I love those two...just like 0.5-0.75" QPF in 4-6 hours with 0.2"/hr bucket rates at times. Those are always exciting and have some good staying power.

Call me crazy, but I'd take a quick 6" in 5 hours with  a swfe, over 10" of fluff in 3 days in an oes cj event....while S Weymouth gets like 35", that is down to 13" by the time you can drive down to check it out....because some fat azz sneezed waking out to get the morning paper and sublimated it.

Gimme a quick 6"...end as some sleet and rain, call it a day.

That's a man's event.

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Call me crazy, but I'd take a quick 6" in 5 hours with  a swfe, over 10" of fluff in 3 days in an oes cj event....while S Weymouth gets like 35", that is down to 13" by the time you can drive down to check it out....because some fat azz sneezed waking out to get the morning paper and sublimated it.

Gimme a quick 6"...end as some sleet and rain, call it a day.

That's a man's event.

Agreed.  Looks like we are about to enter your pattern.  This past month has been a snooze fest despite the average (20") SF.

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Call me crazy, but I'd take a quick 6" in 5 hours with  a swfe, over 10" of fluff in 3 days in an oes cj event....while S Weymouth gets like 35", that is down to 13" by the time you can drive down to check it out....because some fat azz sneezed waking out to get the morning paper and sublimated it.

Gimme a quick 6"...end as some sleet and rain, call it a day.

That's a man's event.

 

You will learn to love OE CJs.

 

But, I will take whatever at this point. Even a 6" to light rain and then freeze up is a net gainer.

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I want 7-10:1 cement never, Never mind the 20:1 downy flakes, Can actually retain a base with without it sublimating down to nothing

They're so nebulous, too....."well, the vort max is a little sheared, that low down off of the coast of Brazil may rob some energy."

"The mid levels look great, but there will be screw zones." Then Messenger tantalizingly, almost in a passively aggressive, taunting manner, meticulously updates us as every meso model know to man, from the latest .1 block resoloution AWRFF in-house, to the primitive SREF, scribbled on the wall of an Egyptian pyramid, slowly and agonizingly drift the QPF se with each run during the final 24 hours.

 

Man, just a good 'ole fashioned wall of WAA, swf-baby-swf, mashed potatoes.

Get the t shirts ready, get nude....get n of the pike, or get lost.

Bring it.

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They're so nebulous, too....."well, the vort max is a little sheared, that low down off of the coast of Brazil may rob some energy."

"The mid levels look great, but there will be screw zones." Then Messenger tantalizingly, almost in a passively aggressive, taunting manner, meticulously updates us as every meso model know to man, from the latest .1 block resoloution AWRFF in-house, to the primitive SREF, scribbled on the wall of an Egyptian pyramid, slowly and agonizingly drift the QPF se with each run during the final 24 hours.

 

Man, just a good 'ole fashioned wall of WAA, swf-baby-swf, mashed potatoes.

Get the t shirts ready, get nude....get n of the pike, or get lost.

Bring it.

He could be sitting in the crosshairs of a golden shovel jackpot and would still be negative LOL

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They're so nebulous, too....."well, the vort max is a little sheared, that low down off of the coast of Brazil may rob some energy."

"The mid levels look great, but there will be screw zones." Then Messenger tantalizingly, almost in a passively aggressive, taunting manner, meticulously updates us as every meso model know to man, from the latest .1 block resoloution AWRFF in-house, to the primitive SREF, scribbled on the wall of an Egyptian pyramid, slowly and agonizingly drift the QPF se with each run during the final 24 hours.

 

Man, just a good 'ole fashioned wall of WAA, swf-baby-swf, mashed potatoes.

Get the t shirts ready, get nude....get n of the pike, or get lost.

Bring it.

:lol:, Always finds the negatives within all the positives reminds me of someone else on here

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He could be sitting in the crosshairs of a golden shovel jackpot and would still be negative LOL

It just seems to me that ordinarily, you want a strong vort....but not this year..no.

Mother nature just keeps taking a rusty coat hanger to these super mecs embryos.

Just toss some warm air over out arctic dome.

Be done with it.

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It just seems to me that ordinarily, you want a strong vort....but not this year..no.

Mother nature just keeps taking a rusty coat hanger to these super mecs embryos.

Just toss some warm air over out arctic dome.

Be done with it.

Eh, our locales (mine at school) have not been favored since much earlier in the Winter really. Seems all modeling changes that heading into February. Good times ahead. I do fear we might have to deal with a mild storm to get there though. Ensembles look colder than the ops though which is good.

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I will take the mash potatoes any day over the high fluff bombs, At least the next system looks to deliver just that, Climo really starts to become a factor here on out

It's funny.

 

A winter that torches as we have to deal with a rain/snow line we all wish it was colder.

A winter that is freezing, we all wish it was warmer so there was a higher liquid equivalent. 

 

Just shows you how many variables there are. Everyone that has been cashing in on the south coast and the Cape despises the idea of any of us receiving mashed potatoes. Even people on the east ma coast towards Jerry, Scott cringe when we start to play with a paste bomb. That would mean a nice mild rain for them. The areas that have cashed in shows how historically cold it has been thus far. Snow to GA,TX, LA, MS. Plenty of snow events in between and up to the Cape on the east coast. Cold does mean it can potentially snow but also means it could be well south of where we would like. I wouldn't say by any means that this has been a bad pattern for snowfall in SNE. I just think the events we have gotten have not favored the traditional areas. Small shifts to the pattern going into Feb can keep the cold here, maybe not as extreme, but helps deliver more widespread snowfalls. I think we lax to a pattern that is not as extremely cold but still below normal. That should help shift jackpots into the interior as time goes on. Nice signal post Feb 10 for another arctic blast right now. 

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They're so nebulous, too....."well, the vort max is a little sheared, that low down off of the coast of Brazil may rob some energy."

"The mid levels look great, but there will be screw zones." Then Messenger tantalizingly, almost in a passively aggressive, taunting manner, meticulously updates us as every meso model know to man, from the latest .1 block resoloution AWRFF in-house, to the primitive SREF, scribbled on the wall of an Egyptian pyramid, slowly and agonizingly drift the QPF se with each run during the final 24 hours.

Man, just a good 'ole fashioned wall of WAA, swf-baby-swf, mashed potatoes.

Get the t shirts ready, get nude....get n of the pike, or get lost.

Bring it.

can we make it n of the ct/ma border?
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It's funny.

 

A winter that torches as we have to deal with a rain/snow line we all wish it was colder.

A winter that is freezing, we all wish it was warmer so there was a higher liquid equivalent. 

 

Just shows you how many variables there are. Everyone that has been cashing in on the south coast and the Cape despises the idea of any of us receiving mashed potatoes. Even people on the east ma coast towards Jerry, Scott cringe when we start to play with a paste bomb. That would mean a nice mild rain for them. The areas that have cashed in shows how historically cold it has been thus far. Snow to GA,TX, LA, MS. Plenty of snow events in between and up to the Cape on the east coast. Cold does mean it can potentially snow but also means it could be well south of where we would like. I wouldn't say by any means that this has been a bad pattern for snowfall in SNE. I just think the events we have gotten have not favored the traditional areas. Small shifts to the pattern going into Feb can keep the cold here, maybe not as extreme, but helps deliver more widespread snowfalls. I think we lax to a pattern that is not as extremely cold but still below normal. That should help shift jackpots into the interior as time goes on. Nice signal post Feb 10 for another arctic blast right now. 

 

Yeah and when i think of all the cold it reminds me of suppression, And that's what has transpired, When that happens here most everyone to the south reaps the rewards, That's why i will take my chances with the temp gradient nearby on these systems, I am usually far enough north that i will cash even in a marginal situations, This season its been some bad luck the last few weeks here, Beforehand, We were off to one of our best starts

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It's funny.

 

A winter that torches as we have to deal with a rain/snow line we all wish it was colder.

A winter that is freezing, we all wish it was warmer so there was a higher liquid equivalent. 

 

Just shows you how many variables there are. Everyone that has been cashing in on the south coast and the Cape despises the idea of any of us receiving mashed potatoes. Even people on the east ma coast towards Jerry, Scott cringe when we start to play with a paste bomb. That would mean a nice mild rain for them. The areas that have cashed in shows how historically cold it has been thus far. Snow to GA,TX, LA, MS. Plenty of snow events in between and up to the Cape on the east coast. Cold does mean it can potentially snow but also means it could be well south of where we would like. I wouldn't say by any means that this has been a bad pattern for snowfall in SNE. I just think the events we have gotten have not favored the traditional areas. Small shifts to the pattern going into Feb can keep the cold here, maybe not as extreme, but helps deliver more widespread snowfalls. I think we lax to a pattern that is not as extremely cold but still below normal. That should help shift jackpots into the interior as time goes on. Nice signal post Feb 10 for another arctic blast right now.

Jay, you're too young to have experienced all the wonderful paste bombs from NYC northward. Its more common late in the season and more likely this year with sst in the 30s near us.

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It just seems to me that ordinarily, you want a strong vort....but not this year..no.

Mother nature just keeps taking a rusty coat hanger to these super mecs embryos.

Just toss some warm air over out arctic dome.

Be done with it.

best post of the day!! rusty coat hanger lolol!! side splittingly funny man!!! awesome
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Man a lot of crying from inland folks when they don't avg 60" by the end of January.

 

It's the reason why we don't avg 100" a year. Some years are worse than others...and yes that included the interior too. I don't understand some of the angst coming from the eastern MA interior folks. Yes you missed out on one storm that was a fluff bomb for SE MA, but when half the winter still lies ahead...it's not a reason to complain about it. You guys are near or just ahead in the snowfall dept too.

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Man a lot of crying from inland folks when they don't avg 60" by the end of January.

 

It's the reason why we don't avg 100" a year. Some years are worse than others...and yes that included the interior too. I don't understand some of the angst coming from the eastern MA interior folks. Yes you missed out on one storm that was a fluff bomb for SE MA, but when half the winter still lies ahead...it's not a reason to complain about it. You guys are near or just ahead in the snowfall dept too.

Everyone wants the Golden Shovel!!!

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Man a lot of crying from inland folks when they don't avg 60" by the end of January.

 

It's the reason why we don't avg 100" a year. Some years are worse than others...and yes that included the interior too. I don't understand some of the angst coming from the eastern MA interior folks. Yes you missed out on one storm that was a fluff bomb for SE MA, but when half the winter still lies ahead...it's not a reason to complain about it. You guys are near or just ahead in the snowfall dept too.

Winter ends in 30 days.

C+ winter so far and that is okay.  40" by Feb 1st is average, if that?  Averaging 75".  The cold has been fairly remarkable.

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Man a lot of crying from inland folks when they don't avg 60" by the end of January.

 

It's the reason why we don't avg 100" a year. Some years are worse than others...and yes that included the interior too. I don't understand some of the angst coming from the eastern MA interior folks. Yes you missed out on one storm that was a fluff bomb for SE MA, but when half the winter still lies ahead...it's not a reason to complain about it. You guys are near or just ahead in the snowfall dept too.

Scott, I'm just having some fun.

Like you are when you mention that you see more CJs ahead.

 

I'm over it and looking ahead, but nothing wrong with having some laughs.

 

You've been a bit more defensive of late.

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