2014 Global Temperatures

[RCNYILWX]

Wow pocket typing. Yikes sorry about that.

[RCNYILWX]

[chubbs]

Updated through October. Added a line showing the minimum average Nov+Dec temperature needed to break previous record. NOAA will break record. GISS and HADCRUT are too close to call

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Global temperatures are currently at the coldest levels observed since March 1-5, 2014, or approximately 8 months ago. Both hemispheres have contributed in sync to this temporary drop, which appears to have reached it's bottom, for now.

The upcoming warm-up does look somewhat prolonged, but relatively unimpressive in magnitude due to the continuation of colder anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and Eurasia.

The big question now, is how long will it take the MJO signature in the west-Pacific to force another round of high-latitufe blocking? The analogs suggest this will occur in mid or late December.

[GaWx]

Global temperatures are currently at the coldest levels observed since March 1-5, 2014, or approximately 8 months ago. Both hemispheres have contributed in sync to this temporary drop, which appears to have reached it's bottom, for now.

The upcoming warm-up does look somewhat prolonged, but relatively unimpressive in magnitude due to the continuation of colder anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and Eurasia.

The big question now, is how long will it take the MJO signature in the west-Pacific to force another round of high-latitufe blocking? The analogs suggest this will occur in mid or late December.

 

 The Judah Cohen analogs (high Oct. Eurasian SAI/SCE) suggest to look out for northern hem. cooling to resume by ~12/20 and be there more often than not through Feb. at least (this is something I noticed today for the first time):

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/SurfT_HighmLow_SnowCover_Detrend_Blog_small.gif

 

 For the E 2/3 of the US, itself, it suggests solid cold to dominate ~12/21-2/18 after a generally mild dominated 12/1-19. Note the early to mid Dec. dominated reds that give way to the blues for the subsequent two months. Also, notice Greenland doesn't become warm dominated til ~12/18. Once it does, it stays mainly warm til 2/13...i.e., suggestion of a solid west based -NAO ~12/18-2/13.

[nflwxman]

That's a great question. To be fair, I don't know about Russia. I'd have to see if I could research it. Do you have any idea where one can get temperature anomaly maps from past winters (say from 1970's and earlier) for outside the US?

I think Weatherbell does have nice reanalysis products from the CFS, but I believe it's only from 1979.  Thus, it's probably not the best sample size to determine continental temperatures versus ENSO strength. 

[nflwxman]

Pretty large drop on the CFSv2.  Let's see if it translates on the respective surface datasets.  A similar drop (of stronger magnitude) occurred last year in the midst of an ENSO negative regime and strong blocking.  I would imagine the tropics will begin to take over in the next few weeks.

 

However, if we see a persistent -NAO over the winter (which many believe is possible), that could certainly eat into northern hemispheric anomalies again.  As Bluewave posted above, the blocking the last 6 years or so has really been unprecedented in our boreal winters.  Could it be a negative feedback?  Or just decadal noise?  Tough to say. 

[LithiaWx]

December start :

 

[csnavywx]

Since it's been linked to sea ice and snow cover changes (and the associated atmospheric response), I'm going to go with probably not noise.

 

How it reacts with continued long-term strong external forcing? Hard to say.

[chubbs]

4 week change in SST from todays ENSO update. SH oceans warming like the NH oceans warmed last summer. Indicates that global light wind regime continues.

 

[tacoman25]

Since it's been linked to sea ice and snow cover changes (and the associated atmospheric response), I'm going to go with probably not noise.

 

How it reacts with continued long-term strong external forcing? Hard to say.

 

If it is related to climate change, it would mean we're again looking at potential negative feedbacks that were previously overlooked.

 

AGW forcing is a simple concept, but the climate system is much more complicated.

[Jonger]

December start :

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

Rossby waves quite clear with a single day snapshot.

Anyone have a guess what Nov GISS will look like?

[BuffaloWeather]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/30/tech/innovation/record-temperatures/

 

What's everyone's thoughts on this? I know quite a few people think the United States is not warming or the Great Lakes/Northeast in particular. Seems like the evidence suggests otherwise.

 

"The average global temperature between January and October has been 0.68 degrees Celsius (1.22 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 20th century's average global temperature of 14.1 C (57.4 F)."

 

So is it really "Global Warming" or the natural warming and cooling of the earth?

[LithiaWx]

The downward spiral continues :

 

 

[Jonger]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/30/tech/innovation/record-temperatures/

 

What's everyone's thoughts on this? I know quite a few people think the United States is not warming or the Great Lakes/Northeast in particular. Seems like the evidence suggests otherwise.

 

"The average global temperature between January and October has been 0.68 degrees Celsius (1.22 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 20th century's average global temperature of 14.1 C (57.4 F)."

 

So is it really "Global Warming" or the natural warming and cooling of the earth?

 

The earth doesn't vary in temps much year to year, it either slowly warms, slowly cools or stays about the same.

 

The earth will pretty much hover at the record every year, so nobody on this forum is shocked by this.

 

The Great Lakes region has hovered around the same temps since the early 1990's. The autumn is always the warmest time of the year for anomalies.

[chubbs]

UAH for November came in at 0.33 down slightly from October.

 

[LithiaWx]

Some predictions (Friv cough cough) are busting harder than nipples on a cold winter day.

 

Lowest global temps in 8 months.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think a few people here mistakenly assumed we'd jumped to a new baseline, or something like that. We're essentially returning to normalcy now that we've lost the warm high-latitude SSTs, nothing crazy.

[bluewave]

Right on schedule.

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

UAH for November came in at 0.33 down slightly from October.

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2014_v5.png

 

Some UN agency just put out a preliminary report stating 2014 is en route to being right up there with the hottest years since records/science, if not the hottest...  

[chubbs]

Some UN agency just put out a preliminary report stating 2014 is en route to being right up there with the hottest years since records/science, if not the hottest...  

I posted a table summarizing the status through October on the previous page. It depends on the surface temperature series. NOAA will break a record. NASA GISS and Hadley are too close to call. Lower troposphere temps from satellites like UAH above are not at records.

[nflwxman]

I think a few people here mistakenly assumed we'd jumped to a new baseline, or something like that. We're essentially returning to normalcy now that we've lost the warm high-latitude SSTs, nothing crazy.

Well, it's global warming.  We are constantly jumping to a new baseline.  Every year is a bit different on how the inner workings of the climate system works, but the annual statistics are pretty straight forward.  I'm a bit surprised to see how cool (relative) to past years November has been, but I suppose every year has an anomaly or two.

 

MariattaWX- whose busting on predictions?  I suggest you look at the 2014 global temperature prediction thread, there really is not that much disparity between the warmest and coolest.  Secondly, does 2 cold weeks mean that global warming is over all the sudden?  I like how "lowest global temperatures in 8 months" is now some type of amazing threshold.  

 

Bluewave- yes, it does seem that the blocking and increased fall/winter snowcover has made the continents (and global temperatures colder).  However, the oceans have not really responded the same way, no?  If this is some type of negative feedback we would have to see if it's multi-decadal or just a blip on the long term screen.  One has to think, with more forcing applied the extra moisture available to increase high latitude snowfall will no longer be able to overcome the higher temperatures even in major blocking situations a few decades down the line.

 

The high latitude forecast really screams negative AO.

 

[LithiaWx]

Well, it's global warming.  We are constantly jumping to a new baseline.  Every year is a bit different on how the inner workings of the climate system works, but the annual statistics are pretty straight forward.  I'm a bit surprised to see how cool (relative) to past years November has been, but I suppose every year has an anomaly or two.

 

MariattaWX- whose busting on predictions?  I suggest you look at the 2014 global temperature prediction thread, there really is not that much disparity between the warmest and coolest.  Secondly, does 2 cold weeks mean that global warming is over all the sudden?  I like how "lowest global temperatures in 8 months" is now some type of amazing threshold.  

 

Bluewave- yes, it does seem that the blocking and increased fall/winter snowcover has made the continents (and global temperatures colder).  However, the oceans have not really responded the same way, no?  If this is some type of negative feedback we would have to see if it's multi-decadal or just a blip on the long term screen.  One has to think, with more forcing applied the extra moisture available to increase high latitude snowfall will no longer be able to overcome the higher temperatures even in major blocking situations a few decades down the line.

 

The high latitude forecast really screams negative AO.

 

I highlight torches and cold breaks. I asked a question earlier in November. Was there any reason to be,ie e we would cool in December. Friv answered with an infatic nope.

Is this not the coolest in 8 months? I find it comical that the same person who likes to scream torch is nowhere to be found when his prediction busted and the glove cooled some.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Well, it's global warming. We are constantly jumping to a new baseline. Every year is a bit different on how the inner workings of the climate system works, but the annual statistics are pretty straight forward. I'm a bit surprised to see how cool (relative) to past years November has been, but I suppose every year has an anomaly or two.

MariattaWX- whose busting on predictions? I suggest you look at the 2014 global temperature prediction thread, there really is not that much disparity between the warmest and coolest. Secondly, does 2 cold weeks mean that global warming is over all the sudden? I like how "lowest global temperatures in 8 months" is now some type of amazing threshold.

Bluewave- yes, it does seem that the blocking and increased fall/winter snowcover has made the continents (and global temperatures colder). However, the oceans have not really responded the same way, no? If this is some type of negative feedback we would have to see if it's multi-decadal or just a blip on the long term screen. One has to think, with more forcing applied the extra moisture available to increase high latitude snowfall will no longer be able to overcome the higher temperatures even in major blocking situations a few decades down the line.

The high latitude forecast really screams negative AO.

I think a lot of people were relying too much on relatively shoddy statistics. AGW operates on a multi-decadal scale, with natural variability superimposed on the underlying, long term warming trend. There was a lot of talk in here about an abrupt resumption or acceleration in warming, for whatever reason, as if a magical switch had been flipped. Most of that analysis was based on weak, assumptive correlations, or in a few cases, circular, hyperbolic reasoning.

[tacoman25]

Well, it's global warming.  We are constantly jumping to a new baseline.  Every year is a bit different on how the inner workings of the climate system works, but the annual statistics are pretty straight forward.  I'm a bit surprised to see how cool (relative) to past years November has been, but I suppose every year has an anomaly or two.

 

MariattaWX- whose busting on predictions?  I suggest you look at the 2014 global temperature prediction thread, there really is not that much disparity between the warmest and coolest.  Secondly, does 2 cold weeks mean that global warming is over all the sudden?  I like how "lowest global temperatures in 8 months" is now some type of amazing threshold.  

 

 

 

This is the definition of a straw man. No one claimed anything of the sort.

 

There were two camps going into this fall/early winter. Those that thought we'd likely stay at/above the temperature levels seen in late summer, and those that thought it was more likely we'd see cooling from those levels. It's looking like the latter camp will probably be more correct. Big deal.

 

I do think what's happened should be instructive for those that thought weak +ENSO would suddenly "kick in" and be a major factor towards the end of 2014. There was simply no historical evidence for that.

[nflwxman]

This is the definition of a straw man. No one claimed anything of the sort.

 

There were two camps going into this fall/early winter. Those that thought we'd likely stay at/above the temperature levels seen in late summer, and those that thought it was more likely we'd see cooling from those levels. It's looking like the latter camp will probably be more correct. Big deal.

 

I do think what's happened should be instructive for those that thought weak +ENSO would suddenly "kick in" and be a major factor towards the end of 2014. There was simply no historical evidence for that.

 

 

Can you tell me what the average of SON assuming a .63 GISS for November, and than do the same average for JJA?  You sure you are turning out to be right? 

 

Hint:  You're not.

[nflwxman]

I think a lot of people were relying too much on relatively shoddy statistics. AGW operates on a multi-decadal scale, with natural variability superimposed on the underlying, long term warming trend. There was a lot of talk in here about an abrupt resumption or acceleration in warming, for whatever reason, as if a magical switch had been flipped. Most of that analysis was based on weak, assumptive correlations, or in a few cases, circular, hyperbolic reasoning.

 

And somehow this conclusion can be made from 2 weeks of relatively cold global temperatures?

[nflwxman]

I highlight torches and cold breaks. I asked a question earlier in November. Was there any reason to be,ie e we would cool in December. Friv answered with an infatic nope.

Is this not the coolest in 8 months? I find it comical that the same person who likes to scream torch is nowhere to be found when his prediction busted and the glove cooled some.

Well, December is 3 days old now.  November has warmed up solidly faster than other months the last decade or two.  I think ORH and even friv acknowledge that December is often a wildcard.

[tacoman25]

Can you tell me what the average of SON assuming a .63 GISS for November, and than do the same average for JJA?  You sure you are turning out to be right? 

 

Hint:  You're not.

 

Personally, I said in September I specifically thought it was likely Oct/Nov would be cooler than Aug/Sep. Basically, that as we moved on towards the end of the year, we would not be able to stay at the elevated levels of warm anomalies we were seeing in late summer.

 

You said you expected Oct/Nov would have an average in the mid .70s. Based on a some recent years having warm Novembers and the Nino kicking in, and how warm we already were, you thought anomalies would stay at least as warm and perhaps warm further.

 

I wasn't calling you out specifically before, but apparently you wanted to get specific

 

It's not a big deal. We're all wrong sometimes. Some handle it with grace, others not so much.

[LithiaWx]

Well, December is 3 days old now. November has warmed up solidly faster than other months the last decade or two. I think ORH and even friv acknowledge that December is often a wildcard.

Fwiw, Sorry about my spelling errors on my last post. I often type from my phone and was in a hurry. I want to tell you I am a believer in AGW. I am not a believer in catastrophic AGW like many alarmists on here. I think you have a lot to offer this forum and are a smart person. That said please don't accuse me or passive aggressively suggest I am calling for global warming cancel. As tacoman said that's a big strawman and we have enough of those on here without someone who knows better adding to it. Thank you.