Msalgado Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Okay. Problem is the data outage has compromised most of the operation sites like OSPO..that's why I mentioned it. That doesn't excuse the crap that was thrown at me..like, who would invent an imaginary dataset? It's just crazy. You throw of plenty of jabs except you're just more subtle about it. I don't think you need to worry about "excusing" anything. A PhD student should have thicker skin, IMO. In any event, attaching any percentage to the chance of records being set on any of the datasets is meaningless. You're both making qualitative statements but trying to use quantitative descriptions. What is apparent, however, is that for many of these datasets to avoid breaking records we will have to have a much cooler final two months of the calender year. That does seem fairly unlikely given the current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 So you think I'm lying about the data? Really? Scientific integrity is, and has always been my core principle. It's funny, I've always been called an alarmist by my peers, but I almost feel a denier when I post here. Maybe I'm just treating this board like an academic circle when I should be treating it more like Twitter, but I'm a bit dumbfounded, to be honest. I'm not sure what to think. But the data that you mentioned should be posted to back up your point. Many of us can't afford and/or do not care to have access to the datasets that you spoke of. If we are skeptical, you should take it as an oppurtunity to set the record straight. Data and statistics speak louder than words. It's not about scientific integrity. It's about sharing the knowledge you have with us in a way that can be verified. The scientific community demands just that, as you said, we are not JBs twitter feed, why should we be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 We are never going to see this "windsat" sea surface temperature anomaly data set and it's climo. We never saw the proof of orbital drift and decay with the OISST anomalies that SOC said NOAA personally told him about. Those are facts. Folks can play nice and dance around it if scientific integrity holds little value to them. But it matters to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 CFS is now at 0.173C+ on the dailies for the month of October. This is a 0.72C+ GISS equivalent. it looks like CFS will finish October around 0.180-0190C+ which is a 0.73-0.74C+ on Giss. AMSU channel 6 temps are now the second warmest on record at this time. The models are currently showing an all out blow torch as we start November with CFS likely running near 0.40C at the start of the month. So as well head into NOVEMBER no cooling whatsoever to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 CFS is now up to 0.180C+ for the month which is equal to a 0.73C+ on GISS. AMSU channel 6 temps are still the 2nd warmest on record. Even warmer than 2009. ENSO will continue to maintain itself and slowly strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The pacific is getting some negative anomalies. Pretty amazing change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Are the computer outages affecting any of these datasets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hadley also a September record but down a little from August. 2014 0.508 0.305 0.548 0.658 0.596 0.619 0.542 0.667 0.595 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hadley also a September record but down a little from August. 2014 0.508 0.305 0.548 0.658 0.596 0.619 0.542 0.667 0.595 The drop in HADCRUT4 global temperatures was almost solely confined to the ocean basins, as SST anomalies dropped. Not surprising at all. The global SST anomaly began dropping more rapidly at the end of September, so I suspect that October will come in colder than September did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The drop in HADCRUT4 global temperatures was almost solely confined to the ocean basins, as SST anomalies dropped. Not surprising at all. The global SST anomaly began dropping more rapidly at the end of September, so I suspect that October will come in colder than September did. Not much difference between September and October across various series with HADCRUT4 and NOAA cooler and GISS, UAH and RSS warmer. So far CFS for October is between Sept and Aug.so I don't expect big changes in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hadley is essentially clinched for the yearly record now. 2010 had a very warm November. But a .493 October and .339 December. CFS is at 0.183C+ for the month. Which is between a 0.73C and 0.74C on GISS. It's very very likely GISS has it's third .70C+ month in a row. The models show October finishing on huge torching with CFS going up around 0.40C+. So November is going to start on a major torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not much difference between September and October across various series with HADCRUT4 and NOAA cooler and GISS, UAH and RSS warmer. So far CFS for October is between Sept and Aug.so I don't expect big changes in October. The CFS correlation is not static though, as is made obvious by the cooling from August to September. This is because the surface datasets analyze SSTs differently than the CFS-R. The majority of the SST drop has occurred over the last three weeks, so I suspect that will be reflected in the surface datasets in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The CFS correlation is not static though, as is made obvious by the cooling from August to September. This is because the surface datasets analyze SSTs differently than the CFS-R. The majority of the SST drop has occurred over the last three weeks, so I suspect that will be reflected in the surface datasets in the future. Anomalies are not going to drop much on the surface datasets as long as a weak El Nino continues to develop. November is likely to be close to the same warmth as September/October if recent history has anything to say. November has warmed faster than any month the last 20 years. I also believe the SST drop is likely over as the equatorial areas take over. Are the SSTas back online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Anomalies are not going to drop much on the surface datasets as long as a weak El Nino continues to develop. Looks like an August peak to me on HADCRUT4. You'd need a pretty significant ENSO warming (over 0.3C) for any statistically significant warming at the surface, though technically it's the atmospheric circulation itself that's responsible for both the SSTs and global temperature rise in El Niño, not the Nino SSTs themselves. So, if the tropical forcings remain heavily Niño-biased, that could change things. The two are relative, though. Global SSTs will probably drop off further, with the W-PAC/IO now included as the subsidence there evaporates. The ENSOS domain should warm, however. November is likely to be close to the same warmth as September/October if recent history has anything to say. November has warmed faster than any month the last 20 years. I also believe the SST drop is likely over as the equatorial areas take over. Are the SSTas back online? They're online, and the drop has continued..the N-PAC is almost neutral now, which is pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It has nothing to do with some made up CFS lag. That is absurd. GISS and UAH both went up from August to September. RSS was slightly up because of less influence from the poles. NCDC and Hadley were cooler in September and warmer in August because of the poles. We have discussed this already many times here. It has nothing to do with some "shift in the ssts". GISS in August was cooler versus it'self than Hadley and NCDC because of the poles. GISS in September was warmer because of the poles. DRUMROLL please....... October with it's cooler poles. September with it's torching poles. August with it's not torching poles...... I guarantee that NCDC and Hadley both have bigger anomalies in October than they did in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like an August peak to me. You'd need a significant ENSO warming (over 0.3C) for any statistically significant warming at the surface, though technically it's the atmospheric circulation itself that's responsible for both the SSTs and global temperature, not the Nino SSTs themselves..so if the tropical forcings remain heavily Niño-biased, that could change things. The two are relative, though. Global SSTs will probably drop off further, with the W-PAC/IO now included as the subsidence there evaporates. They're online, and the drop has continued..the N-PAC is almost neutral now, which is pretty astounding. I assume you are being facetious here. August is looking to be cooler than both September and October. The NPAC turned neutral around this time last year too. It actually warmed a bit (anomaly wise) towards winter. Do you have any graphs for SSTas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like an August peak to me on HADCRUT4. You'd need a pretty significant ENSO warming (over 0.3C) for any statistically significant warming at the surface, though technically it's the atmospheric circulation itself that's responsible for both the SSTs and global temperature rise in El Niño, not the Nino SSTs themselves. So, if the tropical forcings remain heavily Niño-biased, that could change things. The two are relative, though. Global SSTs will probably drop off further, with the W-PAC/IO now included as the subsidence there evaporates. The ENSOS domain should warm, however. They're online, and the drop has continued..the N-PAC is almost neutral now, which is pretty astounding. Where is your windsat fdata? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 It has nothing to do with some made up CFS lag. That is absurd. GISS and UAH both went up from August to September. RSS was slightly up because of less influence from the poles. NCDC and Hadley were cooler in September and warmer in August because of the poles. We have discussed this already many times here. It has nothing to do with some "shift in the ssts". GISS in August was cooler versus it'self than Hadley and NCDC because of the poles. GISS in September was warmer because of the poles. DRUMROLL please....... October with it's cooler poles. September with it's torching poles. August with it's not torching poles...... I guarantee that NCDC and Hadley both have bigger anomalies in October than they did in September. The satellite data warmed in September as the sensible and latent heat flux into the atmosphere increased over the NH. A lot of that was kinematically mixed out of the N-PAC. It's pretty obvious in the spectral data. The drop in the surface temperatures was confined to the ocean basins..the poles are/were largely irrelavent to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Who mentioned a CFS lag? I said the the CFS interpolates 2m temps (above SSTs) differently than the surface datasets (especially HADCRUT4 using OISST - HADSST3 input, which is better than ERSST3). That's why the drop was confined to the oceans basins on HADCRUT4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 UAH differences from August to September: Yeah pretty obvious. North Pole: August: -0.50C September: +0.20C South Pole: August: 0.28C September: 1.13C Northern Hemisphere: August: 0.25C September: 0.19C Southern Hemisphere: August: 0.15C September: 0.41C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Who mentioned a CFS lag? I said the the CFS interpolates 2m temps (above SSTs) differently than the surface datasets (especially HADCRUT4 using OISST - HADSST3 input, which is better than ERSST3). That's why the drop was confined to the oceans basins on HADCRUT4. Where is the windsat data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Where is your windsat fdata? Don't even think about it. I'm going to skewer you bloody. If you were to read the peer reviewed literature for once in your life, you'd find the data is used widely. You can PM me if your deranged mind cannot see the obvious, but you're not going to derail this thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Where is the windsat data? You've been to told repeatedly to take this nonsense to PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 The satellite data warmed in September as the sensible and latent heat flux into the atmosphere increased over the NH. A lot of that was kinematically mixed out of the N-PAC. It's pretty obvious in the spectral data. The drop in the surface temperatures was confined to the ocean basins..the poles are/were largely irrelavent to that. Just in case this got buried. You can look at either AIRS or CERES and note the changes in the open portion of the AW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I assume you are being facetious here. August is looking to be cooler than both September and October. The NPAC turned neutral around this time last year too. It actually warmed a bit (anomaly wise) towards winter. Do you have any graphs for SSTas? August was warmer than September on HADCRUT4, due to HADCRUT's superior SSTA interpolation method. Just calling it as it is. The satellite data did clearly warm, and will probably continue to do so in the long run. Last year around this time we saw strong ridging begin to develop over the N-PAC, which reduced kinematic transport and warmed the SSTAs. We don't have that this time, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The satellite data warmed in September as the sensible and latent heat flux into the atmosphere increased over the NH. A lot of that was kinematically mixed out of the N-PAC. It's pretty obvious in the spectral data. The drop in the surface temperatures was confined to the ocean basins..the poles are/were largely irrelavent to that. UAH differences from August to September: Yeah pretty obvious. North Pole: August: -0.50C September: +0.20C South Pole: August: 0.28C September: 1.13C Northern Hemisphere: August: 0.25C September: 0.19C Southern Hemisphere: August: 0.15C September: 0.41C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Okay? The heat doesn't just sit over the domain of which it was sourced. It's carried poleward, as it was through most of October, forcing a strong -AO. Poleward heat displacement has been impressive since October 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Okay? The heat doesn't just sit over the domain of which it was sourced. It's carried poleward, as it was through most of October, forcing a strong -AO. Poleward heat displacement has been impressive since October 5th. You said: The satellite data warmed in September as the sensible and latent heat flux into the atmosphere increased over the NH. October has nothing to do with that statement. Nor was it because heat was carried poleward. And no this heat out of the Northern Hemisphere oceans didn't cause the SH warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 You said: October has nothing to do with that statement. Nor was it because heat was carried poleward. And no this heat out of the Northern Hemisphere oceans didn't cause the SH warming. The heat flux increased, and the lower troposphere was significantly warmer than it would have been, as a result. Unless you want to deny reality? You've done a lot of that lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The Northern Hemisphere oceans were 0.31C in August and 0.31C in September on UAH. The Northern Hemisphere land was 0.18C in August and 0.06C in September. The ocean stayed the same and the land cooled. The Southern Hemisphere ocean warmed from 0.16C in August to 0.30C in September. The land warmed from 0.15C in August to 0.74C in September. The vast majority of that was the South pole land warming from 0.20C in August to 1.99C in September. the North pole cooled. So you are claiming heat out of the Northern Hemisphere oceans warmed the South Pole and SH oceans? How am I denying reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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