2014 Global Temperatures

[LithiaWx]

The CONUS continues to cool, the Global anomalies continue to drop as well.

 

[LithiaWx]

The cooling continues

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

NODC OHC has updated for July-Sept and is up quite a bit year to year.  Another record broken for the 3rd quarter year to year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global temps have cooled off substantially over the past week at the surface thanks to the major NA cold out break.

 

 

There looks to be a break the second half this week before a massive cold outbreak happens over Eurasia.

 

In the meantime the heat over the tropics continues to build with the warmest sub-surface water still weeks away from making it to the Western SA coast. 

 

 

So it appears the Sats and land data sets are going to flip in the November period at least with UAH likely breaking it's record.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Global temps have cooled off substantially over the past week at the surface thanks to the major NA cold out break.

There looks to be a break the second half this week before a massive cold outbreak happens over Eurasia.

Actually the NH is torching. It has nothing to do with the NH cold shots. The cooling has been confined to the SH at this point.

[skierinvermont]

Interesting that they often change temp in tandem although not this time.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the NH has cooled only slightly...the huge dip is being aided by SST anomalies cooling in the SH...esp over the southenr Indian ocean:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anarctica has also cooled quite a bit, though it covers a much smaller area than the oceans.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think it has to do with the MJO erupting over the Indian Ocean. That's more of a Niña type forcing and tends to strengthen the Walker Cell and tropical wind speeds in general.

I think global temps could be relatively chilly for awhile, at least until forcing returns to the East-Pacific?

[The_Global_Warmer]

That is a bit surprising.  Typically the Northern Hemisphere would be much colder but the tropics are on fire.

 

 

Starting tomorrow three days in a row with the tropics peaking above 0.80C+. 

 

 

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

Actually the NH is torching. It has nothing to do with the NH cold shots. The cooling has been confined to the SH at this point.

 

 

Torching is a relative term, but even though they haven't seen the huge drop that the SH has, they are still cooler than most of the past 3 months. And should cool further with the big expansion of cold into Asia next week.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Torching is a relative term, but even though they haven't seen the huge drop that the SH has, they are still cooler than most of the past 3 months. And should cool further with the big expansion of cold into Asia next week.

Next week's cooling does look impressive on climate re-analyzer. The next 5 days should see a recovery in temperatures, but the drop week looks even more intense than the current one. This time, it's the NH that does it..

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

[StudentOfClimatology]

If the GFS is correct on next week's cooling, November could come in at or below 0.60C on GISS. That's a pretty big drop, temps crash by about 0.3C and just sit there, with Eurasia and North America contributing the most..

[GaWx]

2009 is not apples to apples as already mentioned since it was a strong El Nino. Also, 2006-7 and 2002-3 aren't apples to apples since they weren't overall cold US winters like 2009-10, 1977-8, and 1976-7. Actualy, 2006-7 was downright warm! Furthermore, 2002-3 was a stronger El Nino than 2014-5 is likely to be. In addition, whereas the Eurasian snowcover for 2002 and 2006 were pretty high, it wasn't as high as 2014 (though 2002 close).

Bottom line: I'd like to know how likely it is that we cool down between now and Jan/Feb. if it ends up being a cold US and Eurasian winter and assuming just a weak El Nino.

Bump. In light of the projected global cooling over the next week as part of Eurasia cools quite a bit and the US gets another shot of cold, I'm still wondering about how likely the globe cools down significantly between now and Jan/Feb if it ends up being a cold US and Eurasian winter and assuming just a weak El Niño. Is next week's cooling a sign of things to come this winter? What if we get another 1977-8 or 1969-70 type winter? Would we be looking at something that could have a pretty decent global cooling impact or not? Would anyone like to make a prediction of what would likely occur should we actually get a cold US and Eurasian winter with a still weakish El Niño?

[StudentOfClimatology]

The cooling continues

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

Down to 0.115C now, with the monthly average (to date) heading down at about 0.05C/day:

For comparison, here's September. You can see the effect the warm SSTs were having on things then, which is no longer the case:

[bluewave]

Bump. In light of the projected global cooling over the next week as part of Eurasia cools quite a bit and the US gets another shot of cold, I'm still wondering about how likely the globe cools down significantly between now and Jan/Feb if it ends up being a cold US and Eurasian winter and assuming just a weak El Niño. Is next week's cooling a sign of things to come this winter? What if we get another 1977-8 or 1969-70 type winter? Would we be looking at something that could have a pretty decent global cooling impact or not? Would anyone like to make a prediction of what would likely occur should we actually get a cold US and Eurasian winter with a still weakish El Niño?

 

Cohen has great papers on the colder winter pattern that has been common in the 2000's so far.

 

 

Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014007/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014007.pdf

 

 

Abstract

The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.

 

 

Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather

 

Authors | Abstract | Full Article | Citation | References

 

 

Abstract

Arctic sea ice was observed to be at a new record minimum in September 2012. Following this summer minimum, northern Eurasia and much of North America experienced severe winter weather during the winter of 2012/2013. A statistical model that used Eurasian snow cover as its main predictor successfully forecast the observed cold winter temperatures. We propose that the large melting of Arctic sea ice may be related to the rapid advance of snow cover, similar to the connection made in studies of past climates between low Arctic sea ice and enhanced continental snowfalls and glacial inception via ice sheet growth. Regressions between autumnal sea ice extent and Eurasian snow cover extent and Northern Hemisphere temperatures yield the characteristic "warm Arctic/cold continents" pattern. This pattern was observed during winter 2012/2013, and it is common among years with observed low autumn sea ice, rapid autumn snow cover advance, and a negative winter Arctic Oscillation. Dynamical models fail to capture this pattern, instead showing maximum warming over the Arctic Ocean and widespread winter warming over the adjacent continents. We suggest that the simulated widespread warming may be due to incorrect sea ice-atmosphere coupling, including an incorrect triggering of positive feedback between low sea ice and atmospheric convection, resulting in significant model errors that are evident in seasonal predictions and that potentially impact future climate change projections.

 

 

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme

mid-latitude weather

 

http://epic.awi.de/36132/1/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf

 

The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncer- tainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events.

[LithiaWx]

The cooling streak continues

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC is out for October.  Another monthly record for global temps and global ssta.

 

 

 

 

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20^th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—the fifth highest for October on record.
• For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F) and the highest for October on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.

 

 

 

 

 

This is why it's a guarantee a new record is happening.

 

The 10th warmest November on NCDC was 0.58C+.

The 10th warmest December on NCDC was 0.48C+.

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I can't see very much difference between September and October ssta wise on CFS.

 

 

October looks slightly cooler. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFS dailies have gone back above 0.10C+.  The tropical Pacific continues to warm big time.  The graphic below shows we are about to see a big warm up over the Indian ocean as well if that pans out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFS should jump above 0.20C+ tomorrow and run between 0.10C to 0.20C the next 3 days before an even bigger cool off than the most recent one.

[StudentOfClimatology]

The plunge next week should bring the global temperature to the lowest levels since last February, according to the GFS. If this continues into December, we will not set a new record this year. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

November, over the last decade, has tended to be a warmer month than most, for whatever reason.

Current CFS is showing a slight rebound, which should continue for the next 2 days. However this should be temporary.

[nflwxman]

November looks primed for around a 60-65 anomaly on the GISS dataset.  This would certainly be an outlier versus the last 8 years or so on the dataset.  This, however, does not mean a global temperature record would not be set.  It's nearly a lock on HadCrut4 and NCDC.  With the nino firing off in the pacific, it's only a matter of time until extra heat is distributed worldwide (perhaps the 2nd half of December).

 

GISS needs to average only a 0.6 C anomaly to break the global temperature record (revisions pending).  It still appears to be a likely proposition despite the cooler than expected November.  Perhaps December ends up being extremely cold, but I would not could on it.

[ORH_wxman]

November looks primed for around a 60-65 anomaly on the GISS dataset.  This would certainly be an outlier versus the last 8 years or so on the dataset.  This, however, does not mean a global temperature record would not be set.  It's nearly a lock on HadCrut4 and NCDC.  With the nino firing off in the pacific, it's only a matter of time until extra heat is distributed worldwide (perhaps the 2nd half of December).

 

GISS needs to average only a 0.6 C anomaly to break the global temperature record (revisions pending).  It still appears to be a likely proposition despite the cooler than expected November.  Perhaps December ends up being extremely cold, but I would not could on it.

 

 

I think we need a bit higher than that. I get +0.65C for the year if we go consecutive +0.60 for Nov/Dec based on the current GISS data. That would fall short of 2005 and 2010.

 

The revisions have been biased downward too since the January 2013 switch in SST data on GISS. Last year is down to a +0.59 after being announced at +0.61 in January of this year.

[skierinvermont]

Did you make those graphs Friv, or where did they come from. Nice graphs. Are they NCDC?

 

Shows why a record is almost certain on NCDC and HadCRUT4.

 

I think GISS probably breaks too. At least on the January announcement. ORH brings up a good point on revisions being down.

 

 

Don't think December will replicate 2010's .48C. Although it probably won't be too warm with a -AO likely.

[chubbs]

I think we need a bit higher than that. I get +0.65C for the year if we go consecutive +0.60 for Nov/Dec based on the current GISS data. That would fall short of 2005 and 2010.

 

The revisions have been biased downward too since the January 2013 switch in SST data on GISS. Last year is down to a +0.59 after being announced at +0.61 in January of this year.

 

Thats what I get also. A 64 and 65 (64.5 avg) will tie 2010. This will probably change somewhat after the november revisions.

[nflwxman]

Thats what I get also. A 64 and 65 (64.5 avg) will tie 2010. This will probably change somewhat after the november revisions.

You are correct.  I was looking above an older post prior to recent revisions.  I agree with Skier that I don't expect a record warm December due to the AO, but the tropics will begin to have more of a pull on global temperatures.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think the key is determining how fast the MJO progresses, as the current event appears to be the cause for the recent drop in temperatures. Currently, it is currently over the IO and will stay in that vicinity for at least two weeks according to the ECMWF weeklies. This is a Nina-like regime, and correlates to both a stronger Walker Cell and a cooler globe.

Does it progress eastward, or die off?

[ORH_wxman]

I think the key is determining how fast the MJO progresses, as the current event appears to be the cause for the recent drop in temperatures. Currently, it is currently over the IO and will stay in that vicinity for at least two weeks according to the ECMWF weeklies. This is a Nina-like regime, and correlates to both a stronger Walker Cell and a cooler globe.

Does it progress eastward, or die off?

 

I think it will probably progress into the dateline region...but not until mid-December. The next few weeks could definitely be colder globally. We end up with a huge Aleutian ridge and still somewhat of a -AO...so that will make the N Hemisphere pretty cold like the La Nina winters...but the tropics are obviously still in El Nino, so it won't be the same level of cold on a global scale. It might prevent GISS from breaking a record though.   

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think it will probably progress into the dateline region...but not until mid-December. The next few weeks could definitely be colder globally. We end up with a huge Aleutian ridge and still somewhat of a -AO...so that will make the N Hemisphere pretty cold like the La Nina winters...but the tropics are obviously still in El Nino, so it won't be the same level of cold on a global scale. It might prevent GISS from breaking a record though.

Thanks for the insight. What do NCDC & HADCRUT4 need to break the record? I haven't been following things closely, but November looks like it'll put a dent in things.

[bluewave]

Winters have had the coldest global temperature anomalies since 1999 due to the winter

Northern Hemisphere cooling pattern. We have typically seen the fastest temperature

rises in the summer and fall. But you can see how the winter temperature decline over

the past 15 years has contributed to slowing the overall rate of warming.

 

1999-2013...NOAA global temperature time series

 

JD......+0.06 C/Decade

 

DJF.....-0.05 C/Decade

MAM..+0.06 C/Decade

JJA.....+0.10 C/Decade

SON...+0.14 C/Decade

 

The interesting this is that we didn't see this big a variation in seasonal rates of warming from 1984-1998.

 

1984-1998 NOAA global temperature time series

 

JD.......+0.25 C/Decade

 

DJF.....+0.25 C/ Decade

MAM...+0.21 C/Decade

JJA.....+.0.27 C/Decade

SON...+.0.24 C/Decade

[skierinvermont]

OK so assuming those are the correct numbers for GISS (65.5 ND average) it looks like just under a 50-50 proposition, but if the revisions are downwards it probably won't break.

 

I would guess .63 for November +/- .1 and then December I would guess is similar.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Did you make those graphs Friv, or where did they come from. Nice graphs. Are they NCDC?

Shows why a record is almost certain on NCDC and HadCRUT4.

I think GISS probably breaks too. At least on the January announcement. ORH brings up a good point on revisions being down.

Don't think December will replicate 2010's .48C. Although it probably won't be too warm with a -AO likely.

No they are NCDC. Pretty nifty. I think NCDC and Hadley are locks.

It also looks like 2015 will start much warmer than 2014.

This year stands apart from the other record years because of far more consistent warmth.

If this is a repeat of the 2002-2005 period I expect 2016-2017 to be around .75C+ on GISS for the year.

And when Nina returns it will be another step up from 2008 and 2011.

Even in November temps are still very warm currently even with the -AO.

[StudentOfClimatology]

The -AO wasn't responsible for the recent downturn, though. The AO itself isn't going to do much globally without a productive tropical forcing.

2014 is unique in that the Hadley Cells were extremely broad from March to mid October, as depicted by .2101 sigma streamfunction anomalies. This lead to weak global wind speeds and scorching SSTs above 30N, which allowed the surface datasets to run very warm. This year was essentially the anti-2008, which was almost opposite in every respect.