nflwxman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It wasn't out of context. Your post that I quoted was a direct response to my first quote in that post. Go back and look if you'd like. Without putting up 10 quotes, I tried to provide the context of the conversation. But yeah, whether it's SOND or just OND, it's clear now mid .70s for the rest of 2014 was a stretch. There just wasn't the support for that kind of prediction - no offense. None taken, of course. I did put my methodology above, so while you don't believe there is support, I just simply disagree. While month to month temperature swings are extremely tough to predict, a season (3-4 month period) has a bit more skill. Keep in mind, this Nino was one the latest blossoming on record and most of us expected this to show up a month or two earlier than it did. And no, I'm not using that an excuse as it was always a qualifier of my previous projections. However, Let's review what we have on GISS, just for the record. September is 0.76 October is 0.76 November is 0.63 (per CFSv2 conversion) That averages out to about a 72 on GISS. Was mid 70's really that poor of a projection so far, given that? December still needs to be tallied, of course. So i'm not sure how one could say "it's clear" such a prediction was a stretch. At least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This whole last page of debate is an example of why I thought it fruitless to try and predict monthly temps to hundredths of a degree. I get that predicting the temps is part of the fun in this thread which is fine but I also get the feeling that more skill is implied than actually exists in predicting these temps. This cool down in latter half of November only reinforces that thought since if anything, I was on the much warmer November bandwagon. But I can't say I'm surprised that it was a tenth colder than I thought it would be. The variance is high month to month so arguing 0.64 vs 0.72 seems like arguing over statistical noise unless I'm missing something. If someone was predicting 0.45 vs 0.80 it would be a different story. Wait and see how noisy it gets if a record is broken by a hundreth of a degree...no matter what the margin of error is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wait and see how noisy it gets if a record is broken by a hundreth of a degree...no matter what the margin of error is. It's not really a big deal if we break the record by a few hundreths of a degree. That should be expected every few years given increasing anthropogenic forcing. Nothing drastic appears to be happening at this point that hasn't occured in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wait and see how noisy it gets if a record is broken by a hundreth of a degree...no matter what the margin of error is. There will always be uncalled for noise when trying to understand climate with human lifespans. Possibly it will be way more than a few hundredths on the surface datasets. 2015 is the real deal, with the el nino showing no signs of dissipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Taco also thought October would be colder. I think ORH is more on point in that month to month variations are tough to predict. Never said that. I was very clear - I thought it was likely Oct/Nov would be cooler than Aug/Sep, due to one or both fall months being cooler. Because month to month variations are very difficult to predict, I didn't specify which one would be the cooler one. I pointed out that history indicated either month could easily cool. The main point was that odds favored a cooling trend from late summer to fall/early winter, not warmer conditions as some expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 None taken, of course. I did put my methodology above, so while you don't believe there is support, I just simply disagree. While month to month temperature swings are extremely tough to predict, a season (3-4 month period) has a bit more skill. Keep in mind, this Nino was one the latest blossoming on record and most of us expected this to show up a month or two earlier than it did. And no, I'm not using that an excuse as it was always a qualifier of my previous projections. However, Let's review what we have on GISS, just for the record. September is 0.76 October is 0.76 November is 0.63 (per CFSv2 conversion) That averages out to about a 72 on GISS. Was mid 70's really that poor of a projection so far, given that? December still needs to be tallied, of course. So i'm not sure how one could say "it's clear" such a prediction was a stretch. At least at this point. Yes, the Nino being late-blooming and not all that strong was something I repeatedly pointed out as a reason I doubted it would cause any further warming in 2014. It was clear in September that it was late-blooming. Even if it had suddenly warmed to say moderate Nino status by October, that would still be awfully late to have much or any effect this year. We won't have the final GISS numbers for awhile of course (given recent history, it seems likely at least one of Sep/Oct would be dropped a bit), but ultimately, you were predicting further warming this fall. Given the cooling in November, that did not occur. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm kind of wondering if we've already reached the temperature ceiling for this event, given what was a highly anomalous global circulation in 2014. In the satellite era, global temperatures during weak El Nino years are statistically indistinguishable from those in ENSO neutral years, especially during boreal winter. How long is this Nino going to survive? If it degrades through the winter, into next year, I wouldn't count on a significant temperature response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes, the Nino being late-blooming and not all that strong was something I repeatedly pointed out as a reason I doubted it would cause any further warming in 2014. It was clear in September that it was late-blooming. Even if it had suddenly warmed to say moderate Nino status by October, that would still be awfully late to have much or any effect this year. We won't have the final GISS numbers for awhile of course (given recent history, it seems likely at least one of Sep/Oct would be dropped a bit), but ultimately, you were predicting further warming this fall. Given the cooling in November, that did not occur. It is what it is. No offense, but you clearly never understood what I said and/or are taking it entirely out of context purposely. A nice strawman has been constructed, me thinks. My projection was for SOND, and that's it. While November appears to be cooler than most of us expected, that's irrelevent to a prediction for SOND if the other 3 months torch. Never claimed that December would be warmer than September due to increasing ENSO or any variation of such. Oh and by the way, further warming DID happen in September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 You clearly never got what I said, did you? Oh and by the way, further warming DID happen in September and October. You are arguing against a strawman, me thinks. My projection was for SOND, and that's it. While November appears to be cooler than most of us expected, that's irrelevent to a prediction for SOND if the other 3 months torch. December will probably end up colder than November, assuming the modeling is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No offense, but you clearly never understood what I said and/or are taking it entirely out of context purposely. A nice strawman has been constructed, me thinks. My projection was for SOND, and that's it. While November appears to be cooler than most of us expected, that's irrelevent to a prediction for SOND if the other 3 months torch. Never claimed that December would be warmer than September due to increasing ENSO or any variation of such. Oh and by the way, further warming DID happen in September and October. We were already most of the way through September when you made those projections. It was already clear that Sep would be quite warm. The crux of the discussion was what would happen going forward as we went through fall towards the end of the year. Also, you repeatedly used the "look how warm November has been in recent years" as a big part of your argument to why 2014 would continue to be so warm this fall. You also cited warming ENSO. The bottom line is that you said you believed we'd see a mid .70s average for the rest of 2014. I already quoted it above, where you responded to me back on Sep 23, and said that you "felt that was the right thing to do" (projecting mid .70s for the rest of 2014). I'm not going to argue back and forth with you on this anymore. It would be nice if you'd just own up to it, but by avoiding that you've made it into a bigger deal than it needs to be. I've been wrong plenty of times on here. Everyone has. It's ok to just accept that, learn from it, and move on. If you look back to how this started, I wasn't trying to call you or anyone specifically out, I simply said that I think what happened with the cooling in November can be instructive. But then you got all defensive, and basically insisted there was nothing for you to learn. Disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 December will probably end up colder than November, assuming the modeling is correct Not sure where your getting that idea. Mild pattern for NH continents expected for next 2 weeks, After a cool start looks like Dec will be warmer than Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 We were already most of the way through September when you made those projections. It was already clear that Sep would be quite warm. The crux of the discussion was what would happen going forward as we went through fall towards the end of the year. Also, you repeatedly used the "look how warm November has been in recent years" as a big part of your argument to why 2014 would continue to be so warm this fall. You also cited warming ENSO. The bottom line is that you said you believed we'd see a mid .70s average for the rest of 2014. I already quoted it above, where you responded to me back on Sep 23, and said that you "felt that was the right thing to do" (projecting mid .70s for the rest of 2014). I'm not going to argue back and forth with you on this anymore. It would be nice if you'd just own up to it, but by avoiding that you've made it into a bigger deal than it needs to be. I've been wrong plenty of times on here. Everyone has. It's ok to just accept that, learn from it, and move on. If you look back to how this started, I wasn't trying to call you or anyone specifically out, I simply said that I think what happened with the cooling in November can be instructive. But then you got all defensive, and basically insisted there was nothing for you to learn. Disappointing. I'll really have no response here for the second part. There is nothing science based to respond to and I've made myself clear. But yea, November was cooler than expected, but as we all acknowledged before outliers happen, so I'm not sure I need to write a "lessons learned" about it. Then again, October was a lot warmer than expected. I'm sorry that you are disappointed. Let me know how I can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm kind of wondering if we've already reached the temperature ceiling for this event, given what was a highly anomalous global circulation in 2014. In the satellite era, global temperatures during weak El Nino years are statistically indistinguishable from those in ENSO neutral years, especially during boreal winter. How long is this Nino going to survive? If it degrades through the winter, into next year, I wouldn't count on a significant temperature response. Yeah, the 2nd half of 2015 is interesting. A lot of speculation about a double dip nino of sorts. It's an incredibly rare event, but possible. My money would be on a long term ENSO positive regime (another 12 months), but not necessarily another nino. Trades are still pretty high for a nino event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not sure where your getting that idea. Mild pattern for NH continents expected for next 2 weeks, After a cool start looks like Dec will be warmer than Nov. Climate Re-analyzer. This is the second time you've asked me this: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ The first portion of November was exceptionally warm, much more-so than any future prognostications for December. Much of the current contribution is coming from the Southern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah, the 2nd half of 2015 is interesting. A lot of speculation about a double dip nino of sorts. It's an incredibly rare event, but possible. My money would be on a long term ENSO positive regime (another 12 months), but not necessarily another nino. Trades are still pretty high for a nino event... I've been speculating the same. That said, the statistical modeling has performed much better than the dynamical modeling as of late, and they're suggesting another neutral year. Have to say, ENSO has been a bore to follow for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Climate Re-analyzer. This is the second time you've asked me this: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ The first portion of November was exceptionally warm, much more-so than any future prognostications for December. Much of the current contribution is coming from the Southern Hemisphere. Just wondering if you were looking at something beyond CR. CFS2 anomalies have already warmed considerably in the past week per WxBell and recent readings are now warmer than the Nov average. Climate re-analyzer shows further warming over the next week and longer range modeling shows a continued mild NH pattern until the last week of Dec at least. Large positive NH snowcover anomalies that built up in October and have persisted since are also on the wane. So I now expect Dec to be warmer than Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 The problem is Climate-Reanalyzer only goes out to 168hrs. Both the GFS and EPS average kill off the Eurasian torch after the 17th and cool the Southern Hemisphere. That's not going to get the job done, given how cold the 1st week of the month was. Here's the WxBell graphic. December is currently colder than November. Whether or not that continues will depend on how long Northern Siberia stays warm, and whether or not the AAO forecast is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Guys, you've had a week of cool anomalies. Chill out with the sweeping conclusions. It's unattractive. And frankly silly given the warmth we'd had for the past 10 months. I'll really have no response here for the second part. There is nothing science based to respond to and I've made myself clear. But yea, November was cooler than expected, but as we all acknowledged before outliers happen, so I'm not sure I need to write a "lessons learned" about it. Then again, October was a lot warmer than expected. I'm sorry that you are disappointed. Let me know how I can help. See first post. Don't make posts like that. It was uncalled for and unfounded, as no one was making sweeping conclusions, unless you count pointing out that November's cooling made a GISS record less likely as a "sweeping conclusion". It's disappointing because responses like that do not make for mature discussion. I made a post pointing out to you that November's cooling shouldn't have been such a surprise, and also that there was no historical precedent for a late-blooming, weak +ENSO event having a meaningful effect on December anomalies...and that was your response. It's disrespectful and annoying when people put thought/research into posts and that's how you respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 See first post. Don't make posts like that. It was uncalled for and unfounded, as no one was making sweeping conclusions, unless you count pointing out that November's cooling made a GISS record less likely as a "sweeping conclusion". It's disappointing because responses like that do not make for mature discussion. I made a post pointing out to you that November's cooling shouldn't have been such a surprise, and also that there was no historical precedent for a late-blooming, weak +ENSO event having a meaningful effect on December anomalies...and that was your response. It's disrespectful and annoying when people put thought/research into posts and that's how you respond. Again, there is nothing here to talk about quantitatively. Best for us to just move on, I'd say. We can talk about conclusions about the end of the year when the end of the year is over. It's interesting to speculate what may occur this winter in terms of tropical forcing versus potential snowcover feedback, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Speaking of tropical forcing, it favors a significant warm-up into the 3rd week of the month. Going to be an interesting 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Again, there is nothing here to talk about quantitatively. Best for us to just move on, I'd say. We can talk about conclusions about the end of the year when the end of the year is over. It's interesting to speculate what may occur this winter in terms of tropical forcing versus potential snowcover feedback, however. I have a feeling that if November had not cooled and maintained your mid .70s pace you would see things more quantitatively, but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 HADSST came in at 0.483 for November. Still running well above last year and the previous annual record of 0.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Continues to look like a mild December with warm NH continents and tropics. 7-day climate reanalyzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I haven't been able to look at things in like 3-4 weeks. Been working 14-16 hour days making great coin will be doing this into January. How are things looking? It looks the cool down has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 global ssta haven't cooled off much. November comes in at previous peak super nino levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like GISS came in at 0.65C+ for November. UAH came in at 0.33C+ for November. From Roy Spencers blog. Looks like the tropical influence has taken off. If November is what is deemed cool from what I have read the last few pages. Then cool is constantly warmer than it was yesterday and the day before that and so on. The brunt of the ENSO warming is still in the sub-surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like GISS came in at 0.65C+ for November. The January-November period has a +0.67°C anomaly for 2014. That is second to 2010 for the January-November timeframe. The 2010 anomaly was +0.68°C. However, with a +0.55°C December anomaly, 2014 would finish tied with 2010 for the warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The January-November period has a +0.67°C anomaly for 2014. That is second to 2010 for the January-November timeframe. The 2010 anomaly was +0.68°C. However, with a +0.55°C December anomaly, 2014 would finish tied with 2010 for the warmest year on record. Unlikely, CFSv2 is already approaching a 0.65C GISS-equivalent anomaly with the remainder of the month being warm globally, save for perhaps the last few days. Besides that, we would have reached the 2010 record or exceeded it without requiring a moderate el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The SON period came in at 0.74C total. This bests 2005 as the warmest meteorological boreal fall. While November was cooler than previous years, the warmth in October seemed offset a overall milder November. December appears to be heading warmer than November, at least if the GFS is correct. Assuming no major revisions, mid 70s for the SOND period may come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The SON period came in at 0.74C total. This bests 2005 as the warmest meteorological boreal fall. The updates this month and the mild December have taken the suspense out of a GISS record for 2014. The Aug - Dec period is going to be very warm in 2014 2010 65 74 87 81 70 59 56 59 55 65 74 44 2011 45 44 57 60 47 53 69 68 52 59 49 47 2012 38 42 51 61 71 58 50 56 67 72 68 45 2013 61 52 59 47 55 60 52 60 72 60 75 60 2014 68 43 70 71 77 60 49 74 81 76 65 **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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