AvantHiatus Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There hasn't been a downturn. Exactly...a stability in temperatures. It's like what 0.0001C? Just noise when averaged overtime. Based on the trend, 2015 should be a warmer year relative to 2014 in the Arctic as you often see upward movement every other consecutive year on the chart since 2000. That remains to be seen, 2015 should be a key melt-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 HADSST3 was 0.452 in December. That brings 2014 yearly average to 0.48 vs 0.38 in 2013 and 0.42 record in 1998. Sea surface warmed more than land and atmosphere last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Not sure if this has been posted..UAH data fully crunched. 2014 is the 3rd warmest year on record for the dataset. http://www.newswise.com/articles/2014-was-third-warmest-but-barely Annual Global Temperature Anomalies, ranked 1. 1998 0.422. 2010 0.403. 2014 0.274. 2005 0.265. 2013 0.246. 2002 0.227. 2009 0.218. 2007 0.209. 2003 0.1910. 2006 0.1911. 2012 0.1712. 2011 0.1313. 2004 0.1114. 2001 0.1115. 1991 0.0216. 1987 0.0117. 1995 0.0118. 1988 0.0119. 1980 -0.0120. 2008 -0.0121. 1990 -0.0222. 1981 -0.0523. 1997 -0.0524. 1999 -0.0625. 1983 -0.0626. 2000 -0.0627. 1996 -0.0828. 1994 -0.1129. 1979 -0.1730. 1989 -0.2131. 1986 -0.2432. 1993 -0.2533. 1982 -0.2534. 1992 -0.2936. 1985 -0.3137. 1984 -0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Last year was the warmest in the Central England temperature series which dates back to the 1700s http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 J anuary 14, 2015 MEDIA ADVISORY M15-008 NASA, NOAA to Announce 2014 Global Temperature, Climate Conditions Climate experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will announce the release of new data on 2014 global temperatures during a media teleconference at 11 a.m. EST Friday, Jan. 16. The scientists also will discuss 2014's most important weather and climate events. NASA and NOAA are two keepers of the world's temperature data and independently produce a record of Earth's surface temperatures, and changes based on historical observations over oceans and land. The 2014 global temperature analyses will be issued in a news release 30 minutes before the start of the teleconference. The teleconference panelists are: Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division in NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Headquarters, Washington Richard W. Spinrad, chief scientist with NOAA in Washington Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, and chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research for the U.S. Global Change Research Program in Washington Media can participate in the teleconference by calling 800-593-7128 (toll-free in the United States and Canada) or 212-547-0144 (international) and use the passcode "globe." Audio of the briefing, as well as supporting graphics, will stream live at: http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio For more information about NASA's Earth science programs, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 They are about to release 2014 as the warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 From the Berkeley Earth Project: The global surface temperature average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record. http://static.berkeleyearth.org/memos/Global-Warming-2014-Berkeley-Earth-Newsletter.pdf?/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Last year was the warmest in the Central England temperature series which dates back to the 1700s http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/. HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif Europe has been stuck in a pattern of warmth for a while now.... The US flips between warm and cold years, while Europe just stays warm every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Europe has been stuck in a pattern of warmth for a while now.... The US flips between warm and cold years, while Europe just stays warm every year. Jongerz, this is due to the westerlies dragging moderated ocean air into the continent. It is also convenient that England would have it's warmest year on record coinciding with the warmest global sea surface temperature average on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The first of the "big three" surface temperature dataset results are now in. From NCDC: The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GISS is in. It has tallied a 72 for DEC (2nd warmest). 2014 is the warmest year on record in the dataset. 68 (2014) versus 66 (2010). Pretty surprising given the lack of a sustained nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GISS is in. It has tallied a 72 for DEC (2nd warmest). 2014 is the warmest year on record in the dataset. 68 (2014) versus 66 (2010). Pretty surprising given the lack of sustained nino. SSTs remained elevated from the beginning of the year N PAC event...it was a strong driving force in the warmth this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 SSTs remained elevated from the beginning of the year N PAC event...it was a strong driving force in the warmth this year. Went from PDO- in 2013 to PDO+ in 2014. That won't reverse quickly so 2015 will have a tailwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Went from PDO- in 2013 to PDO+ in 2014. That won't reverse quickly so 2015 will have a tailwind. Not only that, there should be some ENSO residual in the SSTs as well in other regions outside of the PDO region. The Atlantic has a lag residual in ENSO and so does the NW PAC and also parts of the southern and Indian Oceans. So even if ENSO slowly weakens to neutral, we'll be starting the year at least with the positive ENSO residuals in the SST field. This will make 2015 a contender. It will probably need those residuals though because despite the still positive PDO, I don't think the N PAC in that region will end up as warm as 2014. That was pretty anomalous even for a +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Still no real clarity on the ENSO region progression this year. Subsurface temps seem to be subsiding, but they can be very transient anyway. Statistical models suggest ENSO neutral for the remainder of the year, while the dynamic CFSv2 shows a moderate nino brewing by summer. My money is on the former haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Still no real clarity on the ENSO region progression this year. Subsurface temps seem to be subsiding, but they can be very transient anyway. Statistical models suggest ENSO neutral for the remainder of the year, which the dynamic CFSv2 shows a moderate nino brewing by summer. My money is on the former haha. The CFS is even a huge outlier amongst other dynamical models...nevermind the statistical models. I'd be surprised if it verified. But then again, even the statisticals have poor verification from this range before we pass the spring barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 SSTs remained elevated from the beginning of the year N PAC event...it was a strong driving force in the warmth this year. Correct! It was the 4th warmest land temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 SSTs remained elevated from the beginning of the year N PAC event...it was a strong driving force in the warmth this year. ENSO is a much stronger driver though. To be warmer than 1998 or 2005 despite the explosive equatorial warming of 1998 shows considerable warming has occurred. Even 2005 wasn't totally ENSO driven. The arctic torched that year the way the NPAC did this year. Hard to say it 'drives' it though. There's always one area that's hot in a hot year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Chart below comparing ocean and land is from the NOAA supplementary material. The oceans have played a leading role in maintaining the hiatus so its not surprising that they warmed the most in 2014 when ENSO/PDO conditions changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 There appears to be a subtle lag between land temperatures and ocean temperatures. Despite the ocean being warm, land should not respond for a few more years. This is why 2015 should be warmer than 2014 even if ocean temperatures stabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 There appears to be a subtle lag between land temperatures and ocean temperatures. Despite the ocean being warm, land should not respond for a few more years. This is why 2015 should be warmer than 2014 even if ocean temperatures stabilize. Is that your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is that your prediction? Yes sir. I think the Hadley Center is also calling for this as well as a number of reputable institutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Just found this text in the fine print of IPCC AR4... By mid-century (2046–2065), the choice of scenario becomes more important for the magnitude of multi-model globally averaged SAT warming, with values of +1.3°C, +1.8°C and +1.7°C from the AOGCMs for B1, A1B and A2, respectively. About a third of that warming is projected to be due to climate change that is already committed. By late century (2090–2099), differences between scenarios are large, and only about 20% of that warming arises from climate change that is already committed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F). The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average. The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. No surprises from NCDC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fairly balanced global torching. Antarctica looks like it's ready to fall off the deep end across the board based on SIE departure rate and WAIS temperature anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Like GISS+NOAA, Hadcrut also broke a record in 2014 at 0.563 vs 0.555 in 2010. December was 2nd highest on record at 0.632. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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