Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I will bet my account that the city sees warning criteria easily Yeah, the city should not have a problem seeing 6" unless something drastic occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 QPF Problem on NAM January 1 09:40 PM I am not a QPF fan but it appears the NAM 12KM is 2 to 3 times above what is actually printed out on our site, and its counterweight is to decrease snow by 2 to 3 times. The HIRES looks good. Let Ryan know about it They are aware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey it is going to snow their you go enjoy, one robust band can make all the difference. Slow down ma nature is going to deliver hang around these boards long enough and you will find out about pissing on sparkplugs for a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 4k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice to see all the actual model discussion in here, lol. And really? You guys haven't figured out weatherbell's maps are ALWAYS too high? lol this wasnt the usual snowmap....this was straight qpf, had wb for a few weeks now and this kind of error I havent seen before....just straight up twice ncep and stormvistas derived products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 4k nam There's no scale so there's no way to discern what each shade represents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z RGEM looks awesome. Trough is negative tilt at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thank you guys, I was happy for you all, but because of a few posters bickering at each other I am going to take a break from the site. It sickens me to see people post nonsense 24/7 and not have any action taken against them. Until certain people are 5 ppd you won't be seeing me around here. In all honesty you should just take the 4-8 the models are showing and enjoy it. I'll be back when this all gets sorted out and for those who are just innocent bystanders enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thank you guys, I was happy for you all, but because of a few posters bickering at each other I am going to take a break from the site. It sickens me to see people post nonsense 24/7 and not have any action taken against them. Until certain people are 5 ppd you won't be seeing me around here. In all honesty you should just take the 4-8 the models are showing and enjoy it. I'll be back when this all gets sorted out and for those who are just innocent bystanders enjoy the storm. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There's no scale so there's no way to discern what each shade represents.dark blue is 0.50" , every shade lighter is another .10"..Dark green mostly 0.25-0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Image ? Too large, here is a link http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 There's no scale so there's no way to discern what each shade represents. Heres the whole image - 4k gets down to 4 degrees Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z RGEM looks awesome. Trough is negative tilt at hour 24. QPF output is weak considering that observation. Unimpressive sadly. 8-9 mm from what I can tell through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z RGEM hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z RGEM hour 24 The SLP that's closest to the coast weakened. @18Z it was 989 mB, now it's 993 mB and the heavier precip is just off the coast. Still a good run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 1 run cant be a trend, that literally makes no sense. People often interchange the word "trend" and "shift", when they shouldn't. But the point he was making is correct -- the run was ever-so-slightly more positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Rgem is 10-15mm for the area with 15-20mm for Suffolk County. NYC is exactly 12mm on the meteograms which is .47" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not thinking we will have much going on during daylight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 consensus seems to be .40-.60" of qpf for nyc metro and swct.. every single model has been in that range for the past several hours now.. so lets take that range at 15:1 ratios we get 6-9.. and 20:1 ratios we get 8-12" there you go forecast seems on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z RGEM is the only model that I've seen with a negatively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not thinking we will have much going on during daylight tomorrow. Wow that's quite different than the same timeframe hi res NAM. Same flavor donut though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think upton has it forecasted perfectly with the 6-8". If qpf is between 0.4 and 0.6, 6-8 is perfect....up to 10 eastern areas. Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow that's quite different than the same timeframe hi res NAM. Same flavor donut though Its the 15 hr HRRR...out of its range right now, so we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z RGEM is the only model that I've seen with a negatively tilted trough. The RGEM/NAM look good...the RGEM had random sucker holes all around NYC...it looked like just trying to total the QPF that Queens would have had 1-2 tenths more liquid...again as someone else said...its 0.40-0.70 in most of the area depending where you are...problem is models always overdo QPF...I still think this is mainly 4-7 inches most areas using the typical cutting back of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Every model has very little snow tomorrow, this should not be a surprise. Our snow starts Thursday evening into Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The RGEM/NAM look good...the RGEM had random sucker holes all around NYC...it looked like just trying to total the QPF that Queens would have had 1-2 tenths more liquid...again as someone else said...its 0.40-0.70 in most of the area depending where you are...problem is models always overdo QPF...I still think this is mainly 4-7 inches most areas using the typical cutting back of QPF. i disagree with you on the fact that models underdo qpf. so far this season, models have underdone the precip and every storm has come in wetter. not going to say that will be the case, but it has been the trend for a few months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 gfs started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well, hour 12 sub 1016mb low right off the NJ coast, snow into the area by 9AM. That low then gets quickly sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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