Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 hr 21 light snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 24 is way more amplified, trough going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 hr 24 light snow for the entire area low 1004 hr 27 steady snow into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hr 24 H5 is more neutral than 18z which was slightly more positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 27 trough is super amplified. Trough is fully negative tilt at hour 27, looks like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is a much more favorable look at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 hr 30 steady snow continues….heavy snow is brushing the coast.. hr 33 heavy snow pushes towards western nj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is a much more favorable look at h5. Yeah. It's making the 00Z NAM look like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is a much more favorable look at h5. Yep surface is reflecting it with the low slightly closer to the coast - should be a nice little bump in QPF over 18z of around .1 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sadly the better look at h5 doesn't really translate at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 hr 36 the snow is moving out…this run will prob be wetter then 18z…and fall into the same area as the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 24 is way more amplified, trough going negative tilt. This is a much more favorable look at h5. Sadly the better look at h5 doesn't really translate at the surface. I feel like I am experiencing deja vu... literally every description of every model run today has been like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z GFS had a weird orientation of the snow accumulation. This run seems more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .5+ is close to ewr and .25+ all the way to pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Fast moving system and outside of the benchmark as per the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I feel like I am experiencing deja vu... literally every description of every model run today has been like this! I feel like I'm being trolled. It's still .25-.5" for NJ and .5"+ NYC on eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .5+ is close to ewr and .25+ all the way to pitt .5+ is close to ewr and .25+ all the way to pitt How about Monmouth coast this run? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6-9" of snow for the entire Tri-State Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 sv maps are 4-8 for the metro area and 8+ from central long island east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I feel like I'm being trolled. It's still .25-.5" for NJ and .5"+ NYC on eastward... Better H5, yet it doesn't go well at the surface. Still meeting Warning Criteria snowfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How about Monmouth coast this run? Rossi .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is what Yanksfan saying accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Fast moving system and outside of the benchmark as per the 00Z GFS. yeah by 7am the accumulating snow should be over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 All the hype as run is going and then we are left with no big changes. Seems like consensus has been reached. Somewhere between 6-10 inches on avg. Some lollipops and some donut holes. Good moderate-heavy snow storm. Not quite a MECS but SECS for sure. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Any reason why a better look on the H5 doesn't translate better on the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 sv maps are 4-8 for the metro area and 8+ from central long island east Sounds about right. A trough going negative tilt with a favorable vort track and huge airmass contrast won't go idly by, trust me. At this point it's pretty much nowcasting- sit back and enjoy whatever's going to be our ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can anyone chime in that is able to give an explanation as to why these upper level features simply do not translate to the surface ? I keep hearing everyone say not to look at the model's qpf output....but the computer models are created to formulate just that based on many things including upper air data. Everyone is saying "looks great at h5....it should translate to the surface".....but run after run it just simply does not...even on the hi resolution nowcasting models. Any opinions? Haven't heard much about this "issue" in other winters but it seems to be "the thing" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't care what the surface showed, H5 was beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The sv maps that have 4-6 is that at 10-1 ratio or 15-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sounds about right. A trough going negative tilt with a favorable vort track and huge airmass contrast won't go idly by, trust me. At this point it's pretty much nowcasting- sit back and enjoy whatever's going to be our ride. should be fun tomorrow night….going to be a solid winter storm with bitter temps after midnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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