SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The low is popping off the SC coast. Not sure how great this is going to turn out but H5 looks good. exactly, h5 looks great and it certainly helped that its showing the lead vort gone quickly. also, is there another site that gets the model runs quicker, NCEP still showing NAM out to hr12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You can see that the northern and southern streams never really completely phase, but this is really looking good aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Surface low is slightly more strung out @ 26, looks similar enough tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 24 snow overspreading the area. Low pressure looks closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Vort max passes right over NJ. This is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 h5 is pretty similar through 30 maybe more of a positive tilt, so precip should be more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 30 heaviest snow right a long the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Going to be good for eastern NE....and Long Island this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HR 30 mod to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Qpf will be in the .50+ this run h5 never goes negative to the heavier precip stays offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still snowing good at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 through hr 36 .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 8-10" of snow for the Lower Hudson Valley/NYC/LI. Definitely more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 good run. 6-10" still looks like a good bet, still just a hair away from a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The vorticy explodes at hour 36 just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Weak run altogether....NAM is back and forth good run, bad run. Last one was good, this one bad What? Just because it doesn't show 1.00"+ doesn't mean it's a bad run It's actually more in line with other guidance, which is good, closing in on a final solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Weak run altogether....NAM is back and forth good run, bad run. Last one was good, this one badit's a very decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HR 33 HEAVY SNOW 850 MINUS 15 SURFACE TEMP IN NYC 9 DEGREES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There should be 2 or 3 people going over the model. This "it looks weaker", "storm cancel" etc clutter is ridiculous coming from people who don't know what they're talking about or venting. Use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HR 33 HEAVY SNOW 850 MINUS 15 SURFACE TEMP IN NYC 9 DEGREES What time is that at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Slowly pulling out after hr 39. .50" back to DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What time is that at?4AM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There should be 2 or 3 people going over the model. This "it looks weaker", "storm cancel" etc clutter is ridiculous coming from people who don't know what they're talking about or venting. Use the banter thread. Amen there should be designated members who analyze models and report findings to the members.u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WAIT TIL U NUTS SEE THE QPF I see less. I'm looking at 8-10" of snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WAIT TIL U NUTS SEE THE QPF Lol, you are correct it is more than people are leading on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There should be 2 or 3 people going over the model. This "it looks weaker", "storm cancel" etc clutter is ridiculous coming from people who don't know what they're talking about or venting. Use the banter thread. I agree...it's a bit too much. From others and myself. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, the "this run is more amped so far through 12 hours" is the same thing. Speculation based on lack of knowledge. And should be looked at just the same as posting that the run is not as good 30 hours through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WAIT TIL U NUTS SEE THE QPF it's not more than an inch un less you're on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's not more than an inch un less you're on the Cape. 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Given how low the temps will be with 20:1 ratios looking likely for many, there could be numerous 10-12" reports even with .50" of QPF. If the pattern was a bit less progressive, this could have been a monster but there's a reason why those types of storms are very rare. I think 6-10" is very fair for most around here and honestly I could see the models continue to shift as the storm is ongoing because there still seems to be some confusion on how they're handling the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not a bad run a little less the 18z... there was a little more front end precip before the coastal got here this run - Looks like NYC is around .7, .8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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