PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF down to .61 from .80 in Monmouth county , Some low end members brought the mean down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The SREF's are low res and I wouldn't put much stock in them. Worry if the NAM comes in dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF down to .61 from .80 in Monmouth county , Some low end members brought the mean down That could be because they much like the NAM were driving what I felt were erroneously high QPF too far south down the NJ shore where it was gonna end up more north towards LI or SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Based on the SREF Probabilities, 8-12" of snow is probable, but 6-10" of snow is likely for NE NJ/NYC/LI. Especially for the Lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How far does the HRRR go at this moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Take a glance at Craig Allen's writeup on Facebook. If post but I'm on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How far does the HRRR go at this moment? I wouldn't really use it past 12 hours. It's a nowcasting model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How far does the HRRR go at this moment? Around 13Z tomorrow...too early to really assess our situation here since we are mainly entirely getting hit by the coastal precip a good 10 hours or more later...it does not look bad though back down to the SW which is the area which would eventually get involved with the coastal...it looks bad though for the ALB-Bos people who were hoping for the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here comes the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ejb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow @ Mount Holly's friday night lows for CNJ (-10 for Somerville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How far does the HRRR go at this moment? Up to 14Z 2014/01/02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Northern stream looks good. Light snow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Take a glance at Craig Allen's writeup on Facebook. If post but I'm on my phone. From his FB Questions? I got plenty of them from you today.Here are a few answers...... A Blizzard warning does NOT mean you will be stuck in your home for days. It has nothing to do with snow amounts. Moderate to heavy snow + at least 3 hours duration + winds in excess of 35 mph = visibility under 1/4 mile = blizzard conditions. But yes, you could get stranded on the roads during heavier periods of snow resulting in a whiteout and plows can't keep up with intensity or blowing & drifting. Should I ravage the shelves of my local Waldbaums/ Stop & Shop etc?: Sure. If you feel like pushing and punching your fellow humans for 15 loaves of bread, 10 cartons of eggs or 8 gallons of milk, be my guest. But I don't know what you're going to do with it all. Sounds like a lot of french toast. You'll be able to get around just fine by Saturday, the latest. But beware the cold- more on that below. Amounts: there's decent agreement amongst all models in all parameters except placement of the heaviest snow/ banding. So the going forecast generalities of 5-10/6-12 look good. It's not even worth mentioning " a little more here or a little less there". These amounts will be quite common regionwide. Plus, you won't be able to get accurate measurements anyway due to blowing and drifting. Timing: snowflakes (even a little mix along south shore and NJ shore for a bit?) could be falling all day. But accumulations will be minor and easily handled by road crews All heck will start to break loose towards sundown and last thru Thursday night into Fri morning. That's when you should absolutely be snug and warm at home by then. I-495/LIE: I can't believe they're thinking of closing it prior to the worst of the storm. This is NOT like last year's debacle between Exits 50 & 64 and other roads in Brookhaven Twshp. No other part of LI saw snowfall like that of 4-6" per hour. This will be more in the order of 1-2" at its worst. I admit, plows will have trouble keeping up with it, more so due to the wind. So, in answer to 'will I have school/ should I go to work?' : There is no reason not to in the morning but early dismissal should be thought about. Leave work early too and beat the craziness. I can almost assure you there will be no school or work on Friday as the worst will first be winding down. So consider it a long holiday gift. The cold will be BRUTAL. Coldest temps and definitely windchill in nearly a decade for some areas. The thermometer may drop below 0- even in the City! with windchills of 10-20 below. That is dangerous!!! Frostbite can occur in as little as 10 -15 minutes on exposed skin. Yes I will now be working Thu & Fri on WCBS-AM/880 Yes, I wish the vacation was longer Yes, I wish winter was over already Yes, if you can find a dislike button, feel free to click it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I might be wrong but at 3hrs at 500, looks like the wave is digging more and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Around 13Z tomorrow...too early to really assess our situation here since we are mainly entirely getting hit by the coastal precip a good 10 hours or more later...it does not look bad though back down to the SW which is the area which would eventually get involved with the coastal...it looks bad though for the ALB-Bos people who were hoping for the overrunning. The 850mb frontogenesis charts looked good though for I-90. Maybe that area will generate better tomorrow, unless that process weakens anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lead vorticy is completely sheared out by hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Slightly more digging at HR 14. I can see the Northern Stream forcing itself in a more linear style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The trough looks more neutrally tilted at 17h than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Big run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 850 low over Ohio, amazing how the models slowly trended back that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This looks more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I might be wrong but at 3hrs at 500, looks like the wave is digging more and stronger. That overall is a great look for a major storm over our area. The block could be a little more west based but overall that's a nice look. Look down towards Florida and fire whatever rays of death you can at the radar echos there, as that's what could screw us over by stealing from what the vorts over the Plains in this panel can deliver. But I think we'll all make out fine with what we have unless you're dreaming of Snowpocalypse as some were earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is obviously going to be a bit more different. In a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol I love when the run starts and people think a huge huge run is coming, every time LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 about an inch less on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 about an inch less on the mean That's alright though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That overall is a great look for a major storm over our area. The block could be a little more west based but overall that's a nice look. Look down towards Florida and fire whatever rays of death you can at the radar echos there, as that's what could screw us over by stealing from what the vorts over the Plains in this panel can deliver. But I think we'll all make out fine with what we have unless you're dreaming of Snowpocalypse as some were earlier today. agreed! def not a dec 2010 situation but I could def see 12-15" with the higher amounts over LI and SWCT. Lets wait until 6z until we start guessing qpf amounts though. NAM is looking great, on the other hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol I love when the run starts and people think a huge huge run is coming, every time LOL I think this can be a storm that can deliver surprises. It will be quite dynamic with that sharp trough and energy coming through, plus the mega temp contrast between near zero land and 40s water. It should hopefully be fun while it's around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The low is popping off the SC coast. Not sure how great this is going to turn out but H5 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well it's again quicker this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.