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January 3-6th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Yup. Flight supposed to leave at 6:55am on Monday. I think the worst will be over by 12z so I'm hoping for a delay rather than cancellation.

 

Also, I hate to be a debbie downer...but this is a thread the needle event. Slop storm still on the table.

 

Yep and here's the 12Z EURO text to illustrate that (this run did come in colder than the 00Z though). NW shift would not be optimal. Even if it means a somewhat weaker system a SLIGHT SE trend would keep us safely all SN.

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            12Z JAN02

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 12Z 05-JAN  -1.2    -6.9    1018      87      99    0.05     547     533    

SUN 18Z 05-JAN   0.3    -7.6    1016      81      84    0.07     545     532    

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -0.9    -7.1    1011      94     100    0.10     542     533    

MON 06Z 06-JAN  -1.1    -4.2     997      96     100    0.36     533     536

MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.5    -8.9     995      80      99    0.37     517     521

MON 18Z 06-JAN  -6.3   -17.8    1002      63      67    0.01     508     506

 

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Yup. Flight supposed to leave at 6:55am on Monday. I think the worst will be over by 12z so I'm hoping for a delay rather than cancellation.

 

Also, I hate to be a debbie downer...but this is a thread the needle event. Slop storm still on the table.

Agree. 0z CMC/euro ensembles were further SE, so hopefully we do see a slight jog in that direction. Either way, nice to have something interesting to track, especially considering that we are getting into the home stretch now for this storm.

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If this tracks a bit north, thats 2 hits for LOT/Chicago area in 1 week.  Back to the gas station for snowblower gas.  :violin:

 

 

Chicago proper at least could be kinda interesting if the foreign runs are on the right track.  On the fringe of good system snows but probably better ratios with even some potential lake enhancement as the low passes by.

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Forecasters here in Louisville are predicting that the storm will continue to jog NW on the models. I hope there wrong but with no snow on the ground in some parts of Southern Indiana, they're thinking that will prevent the storm from diving further south.

 

 

not saying this will trend s or n but the amount of snow on the ground in S. Indiana won't play a role.

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The nam out to 33 hours is going to crack this time.

 

Major shift coming.

 

Trough is sharper, shortwave is digging more.  EPAC ridge is more amplified.  ridge over EUSA is more amplified.

 

 

Yeah I think it's going to make a move.  Whether it's all the way toward the bomb solution remains to be seen.

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12z euro ensemble mean has a track from central AR through Columbus and up just west of montreal. Has ~0.7" of QPF from detroit through toronto and up to ottawa.

 

On the paysite I use, the ensemble mean at 84 hrs has low centered over Portsmouth OH, (basically where OH,WV,and KY all meet),  vs. the OP which has it closer to Cincy.  So if we're splitting hairs it's really about 40 or 50 miles east.   

Since the OP has me 25 miles from the 20" snows....that's a hair worth splitting. :lol:

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